StephenCLE's 2020 Election Final Predictions

Community (This content is not subject to review by Daily Kos staff prior to publication.)

Monday November 02, 2020 · 8:58 PM PST

2020/11/02 · 20:58

Hello Daily Kos Community. It’s Election Eve, and as I do every 2 years, I am here to issue my final predictions for the madness that is about to ensue tomorrow evening. Much like Larry Sabato and a few other prognosticators, I have eliminated all tossups and made final calls on each race. Let’s do it.

President — Biden 334 — Trump 204

Safe D — 191 EVs — VT, MA, RI, CT, NY, NJ, DE, MD, DC, IL, NM, CA, OR, WA, HI

Likely D — 68 EVs — ME, NH, VA, MI, WI, MN, CO, NV

Lean D — 75 EVs — PA, NC, FL, AZ

Lean R — 78 EVs — GA, OH, IA, TX

Likely R — 54 EVs — SC, IN, MS, MO, KS, MT, UT, AK

Safe R — 72 EVs — WV, KY, TN, AL, AR, LA, OK, NE, SD, ND, WY, ID

Biden has a very large lead in the national polls, roughly anywhere from 7-10%. To me, he’s got a pretty good hold on all the states in the so-called “Core 6”, so much so that I even moved MI and WI out to Likely D, while the other four finish at Lean D. In terms of the actual road to 270, if Biden wins all states I show Safe and Likely, he only needs one of PA/NC/FL/AZ to get to 270. For sake of this analysis I’m going to assume Biden wins NE-2 and loses ME-2...the only way that can become significant is if he were to lose both and only get AZ out of my Lean D column, which would result in a 269-269 tie and the House would end up deciding the election. That being said, I don’t see that happening.

In truth, I feel my ratings are a little conservative. You could make strong cases that Biden could win any of the states in my Lean R column, which collectively make up the “Stretch 4”. Personally I feel that the national vote will come out B+8, 53-45-2. Were it to come out at B+9 or B+10 instead, that probably would be enough to tip GA and OH into his column, and TX and IA wouldn’t be very far behind, certainly anything higher than B+10 and I think he sweeps those states. I guess I’m just not quite exuberant enough to predict that.

Senate — Democrats 50 — Republicans 48 — 2 Runoff

Safe D — MA, RI, NJ, DE, VA, IL, NM, OR

Likely D — NH, MI, MN, CO, AZ

Lean D — ME, NC

Runoff — GA-A, GA-B

Lean R — SC, IA, KS, TX, MT, AK

Likely R — KY, AL, MS

Safe R — WV, TN, AR, LA, OK, NE, SD, WY, ID

The sad truth is that I was more optimistic on the Senate a week ago as I had Theresa Greenfield winning IA, but a slew of bad polling in the final week has me tipping it back into the red column. That being said, I still feel Dems more or less have a lock on 50 seats, losing AL but gaining ME, NC, CO, and AZ to claim the Senate majority by tiebreaking vote. And due to the general election 50%+ or runoff rule in GA, I see both GA races headed into overtime as no candidate in either race will clear 50%.

If you look at this more closely, you’ll see that there is a lot more downside potential for the GOP than Dems. I have 6 races in Lean R here, the aforementioned IA, followed by SC, MT, and KS, three races that have all been polling very close for months, and then TX and AK which honestly seem like the x-factor races of the cycle, TX because of how close the presidential race is expected to be, and AK because well...we just don’t ever seem to know what really is going on up there. Much like the presidential race, the difference between B+8 or B+10 or B+12 at the top of the ticket is enormous. I’m projecting a B+8 race, which means that Biden probably won’t run close enough in SC, MT, or KS to give Harrison, Bullock, or Bollier a realistic chance of finding enough ticket splitters to get across the line, and won’t be enough to pull Hegar or Ossoff over the finish line in their races. But if the race really is B+10 or even better B+12, the democrats winning all these races and getting to 54 or 55 seats becomes a real possibility. On the flip side, in the scenario where Biden underperforms, the republicans really don’t have much to aim at beyond keeping a few of their incumbents, although that could be enough for them to keep a 51-49 majority.

House — Democrats 251 — Republicans 184

Safe D — 205 seats (includes NC-2 and NC-6)

Likely D — 21 seats — ME-2, NY-19, PA-8, VA-2, VA-7, GA-6, FL-26, FL-27, MI-8, MI-11, IL-14, IL-17, WI-3, IA-3, TX-23, AZ-1, NV-3, OR-4, CA-21, CA-25, CA-48

Lean D — 25 seats — NY-2, NY-11, NY-22, NY-24, NJ-2, NJ-3, PA-1, PA-10, SC-1, GA-7, OH-1, MI-3, IN-5, IA-1, IA-2, MO-2, NE-2, TX-3, TX-10, TX-21, TX-22, TX-23, TX-24, UT-4, AZ-6

Lean R — 24 seats — NY-1, VA-5, NC-8, NC-9, NC-11, FL-15, FL-16, OH-10, OH-12, MI-6, IL-13, AR-2, MN-1, OK-5, TX-2, TX-25, TX-31, CO-3, NM-2, MT-1, CA-22, CA-50, WA-3, AK-1

Likely R — 13 seats — NY-21, NY-23, PA-16, SC-2, FL-18, OH-14, KY-6, WI-1, MN-7, KS-2, TX-6, CA-4, CA-42

Now the real meat and potatoes, and I swear, it seems every election cycle I’m too optimistic on the House by about 8-12 seats. It happened again in 2018 where I had D+52 and we really got D+40. This time, I have D+18, which is, again, probably toward the upper bound of what most prognosticators are going with. But in this case I really can’t help it. Democrats are absolutely crushing it in the suburbs across the country and republicans are very exposed in these areas still even after losing a bunch of seats in 2018. After seeing where all the individual district polls are at, its just really hard for me to imagine seeing republicans hold districts like OH-1, IN-5, MI-3, MO-2, or any number of districts in Texas. By comparison some of the more rural/small town based toss up seats, like IL-13, VA-5, or NM-2, I saw republicans winning as I don’t see the shift being quite so pronounced outside the major metro areas.

One aspect to my House rankings compared to many others you may have seen, I put a lot of stock in the 2016 Trump margin. Many of the district polls we’ve seen have shown a fairly uniform swing left this cycle from their 2016 baseline. This explains why I’m so optimistic on districts like PA-1, FL-26, and CA-25, and somewhat pessimistic on districts like MN-7, or CO-3 and NC-11, two districts where the republicans nominated weak candidates but nevertheless I see surviving due to Trump margin and PVI. That’s not to say I knocked out a big slew of red district Dems though, as I still have districts like NY-22, SC-1, and UT-4 staying blue largely due to incumbent quality and/or poor challengers. Indeed I only have 3 incumbent Dems losing, Collin Peterson whose district is simply too red these days, and Kendra Horn and Xochil Torres-Small, who I feel were given an unexpected hurdle during presidential debate 3 when Joe Biden came out against the oil industry, which specifically could cost those two their seats. Dems however will more than offset that by picking up 21 seats, an astonishing 6 of those in Texas, where a massive suburban college educated Dem surge will deliver big time (and might even deliver TX to Biden for president though I think it will fall just short of that).

Bonus Predictions — state legislatures — I project that Democrats will flip the Minnesota Senate, the Arizona House and Senate, the Pennsylvania House, the Texas House, and will reach a tie in the Florida Senate, giving Dems a gerrymander of Minnesota and breaking republican gerrymanders in Texas and Florida.

Happy Election 2020 everybody! Will see you in the comments...and best wishes for a fabulous night tomorrow!

Poll

61 votes Show Results

What will be the closest state in the 2020 presidential race?

61 votes Vote Now!

What will be the closest state in the 2020 presidential race?

North Carolina

2 votes

Florida

13 votes

Arizona

1 vote

Georgia

3 votes

Ohio

14 votes

Iowa

6 votes

Texas

17 votes

Some other state

5 votes

StephenCLE's Election Ratings - June 30, 2020

StephenCLE

Community (This content is not subject to review by Daily Kos staff prior to publication.)

Tuesday June 30, 2020 · 8:16 AM PDT

2020/06/30 · 08:16

StephenCLE’s election ratings – June 30, 2020

Hello everybody and welcome to StephenCLE’s election ratings. 18 weeks remain prior to election day, and things could not be more positive for democrats up and down the ballot. Here are my current ratings for the Presidency, Senate, and House.

My ratings take many different factors into account. For the presidency, Trump national favorability and approval rating as well as state polling numbers are the dominant criteria. For the Senate, these criteria were utilized along with incumbency and fundraising numbers and candidate strength. In the House, candidate strength, incumbency, and fundraising numbers were all considered, but the generic congressional ballot was also a major criteria.

To the electoral college!

2020 Presidential Ratings:

Safe D – 186 EVs (VT, MA, RI, CT, NY, NJ, DE, MD, IL, NM, CA, OR, WA, HI)

Likely D – 61 EVs (ME, NH, VA, MI, MN, CO, NV)

Lean D – 70 EVs (PA, FL, WI, AZ)

Toss Up – 95 EVs (ME-2, NE-2, OH, NC, GA, IA, TX)

Lean R – 3 EVs (MT)

Likely R – 51 EVs (SC, IN, MS, MO, KS, UT, AK)

Safe R – 71 EVs (WV, KY, TN, AL, AR, LA, OK, ND, SD, WY, ID)

The polling data is pretty undeniable right now. Biden is leading by anywhere from 8-12 points nationally at the moment, which means we are heading to an electoral count on the level of 2008 at a minimum, and maybe much higher. State level polling is showing Biden clearly ahead in all of the tipping point states like Wisconsin and Arizona, and pretty much a dead heat in other states ancillary to the democratic road to 270, like Texas, Iowa, and Ohio. You’ll also notice that I moved a bunch of states out of Safe R without polling to really corroborate, except for Kansas and Utah which did have fairly recent poll numbers. I figure if Biden is up by close to 10 nationally, that means states like Indiana, Missouri, and South Carolina are most likely within single digits, and any further erosion for Trump could put these states in play for Biden.

2020 Senate Ratings:

D Not up for Election – 35 seats

Safe D – 9 seats – MA, RI, NJ, DE, VA, IL, MN, NM, OR

Likely D – 4 seats – NH, MI, CO, AZ

Lean D – 2 seats – ME, NC

Toss Up – 3 seats – GA, IA, MT

Lean R – 4 seats – AL, KS, TX, AK

Likely R – 2 seats – SC, KY

Safe R – 10 seats – WV, TN, MS, LA, AR, OK, NE, SD, WY, ID

R Not up for Election – 30 seats

Incomplete – GA-special (headed to runoff)

Onto the Senate, where the Democrats are looking to take control of the chamber, and as of right now, I think they are favored to do that. Much like the presidential map, the Senate map is looking very favorable for democrats now compared to several months ago. The democrats are either safe or likely to defend all of their own seats except for Doug Jones’s seat in Alabama, where I actually have him still leaning toward defeat due to how big Trump is likely to win Alabama by. Given that loss, democrats have to pick up 4 seats (assuming a Biden presidential win) to take control of the chamber. Dems are virtually a lock to pick up Colorado and Arizona, where Cory Gardner and Martha McSally are both losing by double digits. After that, the next 2 most likely pickups are Maine and North Carolina, where Susan Collins is losing to Sara Gideon and Thom Tillis is losing to Cal Cunningham. Both republican incumbents are mired in the low 40s in polling, which usually indicates an incumbent is toast. Those seats right there would get Dems to 50, which at this point I feel is a worst case scenario.

From there, we have other good pickup targets in Georgia and Iowa, 2 states that are also toss up in the presidential race, and Montana, where popular governor Steve Bullock is expected to run well ahead of Joe Biden. For sake of ratings I don’t have the GA special election listed as that race is almost certain to not be resolved on election night and will be going to a runoff in January. Along with Alabama, I have Texas, Kansas, and Alaska all listed at Lean R as well. Texas is there mostly due to the fact that it is Toss Up in the presidential and I don’t see John Cornyn being able to outrun Donald Trump by more than 5 or so points. Kansas’s rating is a placeholder while we wait to see if unpopular Kris Kobach ends up as the republican nominee. If he is, Kansas will move to tossup, whereas if the more mainstream Roger Marshall wins it, it’ll be a tougher slog. Lastly, Alaska is the one race we know next to nothing about. I think it could be competitive because there seems to be a wholesale rejection of Trumpism in the West. If other states highly libertarian in values like Montana are looking competitive for Dems, you’d figure Alaska will follow suit.

2020 House Ratings:

Safe D – 198 seats – (includes pickups in NC-2 and NC-6)

Likely D – 22 seats – NH-1, NJ-5, NJ-11, NY-18, NY-19, PA-8, PA-17, VA-2, GA-6, FL-13, MI-11, IL-14, IA-2, TX-7, TX-23, TX-32, AZ-1, NV-3, NV-4, CA-21, CA-39, CA-45

Lean D – 13 seats – ME-2, NJ-7, PA-1, VA-7, GA-7, MI-8, IA-1, IA-3, KS-3, TX-24, UT-4, CA-25, CA-48

Toss Up – 17 seats – NY-11, NY-22, NY-24, NJ-2, NJ-3, PA-10, SC-1, OH-1, MI-3, IL-13, MN-1, NE-2, OK-5, TX-21, TX-22, NM-2, AZ-6,

Lean R – 17 seats – NY-2, VA-5, NC-8, FL-15, FL-16, OH-10, OH-12, IN-5, MO-2, MN-7, KS-2, TX-2, TX-10, TX-25, MT-1, WA-3, AK-1

Likely R – 16 seats – NY-1, NY-21, PA-16, NC-9, GA-11, FL-18, OH-14, MI-6, KY-6, MN-8, AR-2, TX-3, TX-31, CO-3, CA-22, CA-50

Safe R – 152 seats

Now comes the real meat and potatoes, the House of Representatives. In 2018 the democrats gave Trump, the GOP, and gerrymandering the wag of the finger. At this point the question is not whether the GOP can make a run at reclaiming the chamber, but rather can democrats expand their majority. The generic ballot average according to 538 is a 49-41 Democratic advantage, which is right on the 8% national victory the democrats had 2 years ago. Based on that alone, you’d figure that the outcome in 2020 would end up similar. Also, polling in suburban house districts seems to be revealing a wholesale rejection of Trumpism. Some numbers from districts like PA-1, MI-3, and others have been downright scary for the GOP and likely have House republicans scurrying for the barricades. For that reason, I think if Democrats do win nationally by 8% like they did in 2018, that is going to translate into 5-10 more seats than they won in 2018. As of now I have 198 districts safe for Dems, 22 as likely, and 14 as lean. Democrats currently have 7 pickups to just 1 for the republicans. If Dems lost every district currently in Toss Up they would still finish with 233 seats, or a net of 0. If they swept Toss Up, they would finish with 250 seats, or +17. In the scenario where Dems outperform the generic ballot and win by double digits nationally, they would probably start picking off seats currently sitting in Lean R and maybe even a couple in Likely R. Again, I would look for suburban areas to fall first.

Well, that’s this week’s update. My next update will be forthcoming on July 21^st. I’m more than happy to receive your feedback and respond in the comments.

Poll

57 votes Show Results

Which is the lean/likely R Senate race most likely to be won by Dems?

57 votes Vote Now!

Which is the lean/likely R Senate race most likely to be won by Dems?

Alabama

5 votes

South Carolina

6 votes

Kentucky

2 votes

Alaska

13 votes

Kansas

25 votes

Texas

6 votes

StephenCLE's Election Ratings - June 2020

StephenCLE

Community (This content is not subject to review by Daily Kos staff prior to publication.)

Tuesday June 09, 2020 · 10:17 AM PDT

2020/06/09 · 10:17

StephenCLE’s election ratings – June 9, 2020

Hello everybody and welcome to StephenCLE’s election ratings. With today being 21 weeks prior to election day, I figure now is as good a time as any to unveil my preliminary Presidential, Senate, and House ratings for the 2020 election cycle.

Historically speaking, my ratings typically end up slightly optimistic on election day, especially 2016 which was a big flaming miss. 2018 went much better for the most part, if slightly optimistic. I projected +52 in the House (actual was +41), 0 in the Senate (actual was -2, missed IN and FL), and +10 in Governors (actual was +7, missed IA, OH, and FL). That being said I did have the top predictions on DKE in the 2012 cycle, and let me tell you, the Babka is as delicious as they say.

My ratings take many different factors into account. For the presidency, Trump national favorability and approval rating as well as state polling numbers were the dominant criteria. For the Senate, these criteria were utilized along with incumbency and fundraising numbers and candidate strength. In the House, candidate strength, incumbency, and fundraising numbers were all considered, but the generic congressional ballot was also a major criteria.

Without further ado, let’s get to it, starting with the electoral college!

2020 Presidential Ratings:

Safe D – 187 EVs (VT, MA, RI, CT, NY, NJ, DE, MD, IL, NM, CA, OR, WA, HI)

Likely D – 45 EVs (ME, NH, VA, MN, CO, NV)

Lean D – 57 EVs (PA, MI, WI, AZ)

Toss Up – 124 EVs (ME-2, NE-2, OH, NC, GA, FL, IA, TX)

Lean R – 3 EVs (MT)

Likely R – 51 EVs (SC, IN, MS, MO, KS, UT, AK)

Safe R – 71 EVs (WV, KY, TN, AL, AR, LA, OK, ND, SD, WY, ID)

The polling data is pretty undeniable right now. Biden is leading by anywhere from 8-12 points nationally at the moment, which means we are heading to an electoral count on the level of 2008 at a minimum, and maybe much higher. State level polling is showing Biden clearly ahead in all of the tipping point states like Wisconsin and Arizona, and pretty much a dead heat in other states ancillary to the democratic road to 270, like Texas, Iowa, and Ohio. If anything I feel I’m being a little cautious. I very nearly moved Michigan and Pennsylvania to Likely D and almost moved Florida and North Carolina to Lean D based on the current polling numbers. You’ll also notice that I moved a bunch of states out of Safe R without polling to really corroborate, except for KS and UT which did have fairly recent poll numbers. I figure if Biden is up by close to 10 nationally, that means states like Indiana, Missouri, and South Carolina are most likely within single digits, and any further erosion for Trump could put these states in play for Biden.

Onto the Senate, where the Democrats are looking to take control of the chamber, and as of right now, I think they are favored to do that. Much like the presidential map, the Senate map is looking very favorable for democrats now compared to several months ago. The democrats are either safe or likely to defend all of their own seats except for Doug Jones’s seat in Alabama, where I actually have him still leaning toward defeat due to how big Trump is likely to win Alabama by. Given that loss, democrats have to pick up 4 seats (assuming a Biden presidential win) to take control of the chamber. Dems are virtually a lock to pick up Colorado and Arizona, where Cory Gardner and Martha McSally are both losing by double digits. After that, the next 2 most likely pickups are Maine and North Carolina, where Susan Collins is losing to Sara Gideon and Thom Tillis is losing to Cal Cunningham. Those seats right there would get Dems to 50. From there, we have other good pickup targets in Georgia and Iowa, 2 states that are also toss up in the presidential race, and Montana, where popular governor Steve Bullock is expected to run well ahead of Joe Biden. Along with Alabama, I have Texas and Kansas both listed at Lean R as well. Texas is there mostly due to the fact that it is Toss Up in the presidential, and Kansas’s rating is a placeholder while we wait to see if unpopular Kris Kobach ends up as the republican nominee. If he is, Kansas will move to tossup surely.

2020 Senate Ratings:

D Not up for Election – 35 seats

Safe D – 9 seats – MA, RI, NJ, DE, VA, IL, MN, NM, OR

Likely D – 4 seats – NH, MI, CO, AZ

Lean D – 2 seats – ME, NC

Toss Up – 4 seats – GA-A, GA-B, IA, MT

Lean R – 3 seats – AL, KS, TX

Likely R – 3 seats – SC, KY, AK

Safe R – 10 seats – WV, TN, MS, LA, AR, OK, NE, SD, WY, ID

R Not up for Election – 30 seats

2020 House Ratings:

Safe D – 194 seats – (includes pickups in NC-2 and NC-6)

Likely D – 19 seats – (NH-1, NJ-5, NJ-11, NY-18, NY-19, PA-7, PA-17, VA-2, FL-13, FL-26, FL-27, MI-11, IL-6, IL-14, TX-23, NV-3, AZ-1, CA-39, CA-45)

Lean D – 16 seats – (ME-2, NJ-7, PA-8, VA-7, GA-6, MI-8, IA-1, IA-2, IA-3, KS-3, TX-7, TX-32, UT-4, NV-4, CA-21, CA-48)

Toss Up – 16 seats – NJ-2, NJ-3, NY-11, NY-22, SC-1, GA-7, IL-13, MN-7, NE-2, OK-5, TX-21, TX-22, TX-24, NM-2, AZ-6, CA-25)

Lean R – 17 seats – NY-2, NY-24, PA-1, PA-10, VA-5, FL-15, FL-16, OH-1, MI-3, IN-5, MN-1, MO-2, KS-2, TX-10, MT-1, WA-3, AK-1)

Likely R – 18 seats – NY-1, NY-21, NC-8, NC-9, FL-18, OH-10, OH-12, KY-6, MI-6, MN-8, IA-4, AR-2, TX-2, TX-25, TX-31, CO-3, CA-22, CA-50)

Safe R – 155 seats

For now I plan on updating these ratings on a monthly basis until we get to the early September update, and then this will be a weekly update up until election day. I’m happy to answer your thoughts, criticisms, etc in the comments. Mazel tov.

Poll

38 votes Show Results

What will be the tipping point state in the 2020 Electoral College?

38 votes Vote Now!

What will be the tipping point state in the 2020 Electoral College?

Arizona

15 votes

Florida

8 votes

North Carolina

3 votes

Pennsylvania

6 votes

Wisconsin

4 votes

Some other state

2 votes

StephenCLE's 2016 Final Predictions

StephenCLE

Community (This content is not subject to review by Daily Kos staff prior to publication.)

Monday November 07, 2016 · 9:57 AM PST

2016/11/07 · 09:57

Ladies and gentlemen, it is the day before Election Day 2016. And it is just as well that I perform a bi-annual tradition...making my predictions for what will happen as the results roll in tomorrow night.

Some interesting fun facts before we start:

1.I have never gotten all 50 states right in the electoral college. Twice I’ve had 49 only to be denied by 1 state, OH in 2004, FL in 2012. (I missed MO and IN in 2008, as well as the split electoral vote in NE-2)

2.Since I started doing Senate calls in 2008, I have never gotten a Senate race wrong in a presidential year. I’ll be thrilled if that continues.

3.I got quite a few house races wrong in 2012, but still did well enough along with the other contests to win the 2012 DKE pick’em contest. Looking for a repeat but with the quality of the contributors we have, it’s going to be very tough!

President:

This one is not going to be nearly as close as public polling suggested earlier in the week. Clinton has the momentum now, and if you ask me, we could be in a situation like 2014 only in reverse, where there was big movement toward the GOP in the final days that came too late for public polls to pick up on it.

National Vote - Clinton 50 - Trump 44 - Others 6

Electoral Votes - Clinton 339 — Trump 199

Ratings:

Safe D — 179 EVs — CA, DE, HI, IL, MD, MA, NJ, NY, OR, RI, VT, WA

Likely D — 42 EVs — ME, MN, NM, VA, WI

Lean D — 51 EVs — CO, MI, NV, PA

Tilt D — 67 EVs — FL, NH, NC, OH, NE-2

Tilt R — 33 EVs — AZ, GA, IA

Lean R — 6 EVs — UT

Likely R — 76 EVs — AK, IN, MS, MO, MT, SC, TX

Safe R — 74 EVs — AL, AR, ID, KS, KY, LA, NE, ND, OK, SD, TN, WV, WY

Senate:

Last week I was starting to hedge a little bit on which races the democrats might win in the battleground, but I never really wavered in my thought that democrats would win the Senate majority. To me the only question is by how much they will win. One thing I do know is that in 2008 and 2012, democrats swept the battleground, just like republicans very nearly did so in 2010 and 2014. This is a presidential year with a sizeable democratic win coming at the top of the ticket, just like 2008 and 2012. As such, I’m not messing around with a winning formula. I’m calling for democrats to win all the toss up races on Tuesday night.

Looking at each race individually...Duckworth is a sure pickup. Feingold’s race has tightened but he will win by mid single digits. Cortez Masto will win by about the same amount, and McGinty will be right in that same area. That gets Democrats to 49 seats. From there, you have 2 seats in states Hillary will win (NH and NC) and 2 in Trump territory (MO and IN).

Ultimately I think that coattails will be too much for Ayotte in NH and Hassan will win it by low single digits. The same goes in NC where Burr is a weak incumbent and he committed an unforced error in the final week with his Hillary bullseye gaffe. The two toughest races for me this cycle are MO and IN. By everything I’ve heard and read, Kander has run the best race of any Senate democrat this cycle, and Blunt isn’t that strong an incumbent. Then again, this is Missouri. PVI could save Blunt, but if party insiders don’t seem to think it will, I’ll go with their advice over that of mostly bad public polling. And lastly you have Indiana, where Bayh has effectively been an incumbent even though he isn’t one technically, but the trajectory doesn’t look great. Still, I think a late surge in democratic voters downballot that polls weren’t capturing last week will come through and help him eek out a win over Young. If there’s one race I’m least sure about that is it. The only mildly competitive race that will see a republican win Tuesday night is Florida, where there will be enough Clinton/Rubio voters, particularly among Hispanics, to deny Murphy a victory, though to be honest, I think it’s more likely that Murphy wins than we see somebody like Cortez Masto, Feingold, or McGinty lose.

Final Result: Democrats 53 — Republicans 47

House:

In 2014, the national House vote was 51-45, or R+6. That led to a 247-188 republican majority in the House. In 2012, the national House vote was 49-48, or D+1, which (due to gerrymandering...jerks) led to a 234-201 republican majority. As of this morning, the Pollster average for the GCB is 46-43 in favor of the democrats. If the nation really does vote D+3, which isn’t implausible given a scenario in which it is C+6 in the presidential race (Obama won by 4 in 2012 as House Dems only won by 1 that same year), that means that you would expect to see Democrats win more than the 201 seats they won in 2012, but not a huge amount more.

With that in mind, I have Republicans retaining the House majority by a 228-207 margin. That is a gain of 19 seats for the Democrats. As you go through my ratings, you’ll probably notice that I have House Dems doing on average much more favorably in suburban districts and districts trending D as opposed to rural districts and districts trending R. My ratings are as such.

Safe D — 180 seats

Likely D — 7 seats — NY-3, VA-4, FL-13, MN-2, MN-7, NV-4, CA-24

Lean D — 9 seats — NH-1, NJ-5, VA-10, FL-26, IL-10, MN-8, NV-3, AZ-1, CA-7

Tilt D — 11 seats — ME-2, NY-19, NY-22, PA-8, FL-7, NE-2, TX-23, CO-6, CA-10, CA-21, CA-25

Tilt R — 12 seats — NY-23, VA-5, MI-1, MI-7, MI-8, FL-18, WI-8, IA-1, KS-3, AZ-2, IN-9, CA-49

Lean R — 10 seats — NY-1, NY-21, NY-24, PA-16, FL-27, IL-12, MN-3, IA-3, CO-3, AK-1

Likely R — 12 seats — NJ-3, PA-6, PA-7, VA-2, MI-6, MI-11, IL-13, WI-7, UT-4, MT-1, WA-3, WA-8, CA-39

Safe R — 194 seats

Poll

72 votes Show Results

How many seats will democrats win in the Senate?

72 votes Vote Now!

How many seats will democrats win in the Senate?

47 or less

2 votes

3 votes

1 vote

13 votes

17 votes

24 votes

8 votes

54 or more

4 votes

StephenCLE's 2014 Final Predictions

StephenCLE

Community (This content is not subject to review by Daily Kos staff prior to publication.)

Monday November 03, 2014 · 7:19 PM PST

2014/11/03 · 19:19

2014 Elections Final Predictions:

Well here we are…the final night of the 2014 election cycle. It’s been a heck of a ride, and now after all the analysis, all the prognostication, all the bad punditry, and all the poll watching, we finally get to see the way the chips fall. Only one thing left to do before popping the popcorn, ordering the pizza, and coloring in the giant posterboard maps…and that’s making the final predictions for how the night will transpire.

Looking back at 2012…here’s how I did.
House – Projected D+15, Actual D+8
Senate – Projected D+2, Actual D+2 (got every race right)
Presidential – Obama 303, Romney 235 (missed only Florida)

US SENATE: URL=[IMG]http://i763.photobucket.com/...[/IMG][/URL]
I’ve actually only missed 2 Senate races in the last 3 cycles, 2010 PA-Sen and 2010 CO-Sen. I’m hoping to pull off the perfect map for the 3rd time in 4 tries, but this year is going to be hard. There are many races that are hanging on a knife edge, and you have possible runoffs to consider as well.

34 Dem seats not up for re-election
Safe Dem: MA, RI, NJ, DE, MI, IL, MN, NM, OR, HI
Likely Dem: VA
Likely Rep: AR, KY
Safe Rep: ME, WV, SCx2, TN, AL, MS, TX, OKx2, NE, SD, WY, MT, ID
30 Rep seats not up for re-election

If none of these races shockingly go the opposite way, that leaves Democrats with 45 seats and Republicans with 47 seats. The GOP only needs 4 for an outright majority at that point.

Lean Dem: NC, NH
These are the two races that Democrats have led pretty much all cycle, and to be honest, I’d be very surprised if either Hagan or Shaheen went down tomorrow.

Lean Rep: LA
This race won’t be decided tomorrow, but Cassidy will be favored to win the runoff. The total R vote, I expect will come in around 52-54% and I would expect Cassidy’s mark to be close to that in December.

If you add those to the combined totals, that gives Democrats 47 seats and Republicans 48. That leaves 5 toss up races, and whoever gets a majority of those 5 wins the Senate. How will it turn out?

Toss Up/Tilt D: IA, CO
Toss Up/Tilt I: KS
Toss Up/Tilt R: GA, AK

Yup, it’s a split decision. Ultimately I went with PVI and candidate quality over polling as my tiebreaking criteria. Iowa might be the one I’m most likely to get wrong, but I still think that Ernst has been overrated for most of the cycle. I believe that Braley will carry IA-1 and IA-2 by bigger margins than the polls have been estimating, and that Ernst won’t have a big enough margin in IA-4 to make it up. In Colorado, I feel I got burned in 2010 by bad public polling, and I’m not going to let that happen again. The fact that the governor’s race is close also has me believing that the polls are way underrating both Udall and Hickenlooper, just like they underrated Bennet and Hick in 2010. I say Udall wins by 3%, and Braley wins by 1% to give the Democrats seat 48 and 49.

On the flip side, you have Alaska, which is a race that is looking good for Team Blue in the polls. However, Alaska is the reverse of Colorado, usually overrating democratic performance. I also believe that Sullivan is a stronger candidate than Gardner or Ernst and will pick up more of the undecideds than either of the other two. I predict Sullivan wins by 2%. Then you have Georgia, which would be a very fascinating race were it a one-shot contest. Unfortunately, with neither candidate having a clear lead, this race is surely going to a runoff. Although I recognize that Nunn is a really, really good candidate, I just don’t have confidence in her getting 50% in a runoff election. Therefore, I say that Purdue will come through and beat Nunn in the runoff, thus getting the GOP to 50 seats.

That means that your decisive race of the 2014 cycle is in…Kansas. Did you ever think such a scenario was even remotely possible? I didn’t. Basically here you have an extremely tight contest between Roberts and Orman, but if anything Orman has a miniscule lead. Ordinarily I would say that the undecideds in such a red state would break for the incumbent republican, but there seems to be genuine outrage across Kansas as to how far right republicans have turned in that state. I say that undertow is enough to give Orman a 1% win.

In the end, that means that after election night, the Senate will contain 47 democrats, 2 independents caucusing with democrats, 1 pure independent, and 48 republicans. 2 more republicans will join their caucus via runoffs. The republicans pick up a net of 5 seats, gaining WV, AR, LA, SD, MT, and AK, but lose KS to an independent candidate. Control of the Senate would then come down to whom Greg Orman decides to caucus with. Assuming he decides to caucus with the Democrats, that would give Team Blue 50 seats and the majority via tiebreaker. Whew.

The best case scenario for Team Blue = democrats win 45 safe/likely seats + NC, NH, IA, CO, KS, AK on election night, GA on election night or via runoff, LA via runoff, finish with 53 seats

The best case scenario for Team Red = republicans win 47 safe/likely seats + AK, KS, IA, CO, NH, NC, GA & LA via runoff, finish with 55 seats

GOVERNOR’S RACES: URL=[IMG]http://i763.photobucket.com/...[/IMG][/URL]

The race for the statehouses has been just as intense as the race for the Senate, perhaps even more so as there are more races in the competitive zone here than in the Senate battleground. Democrats need a net of 4 governorships to tie up the contest nationally, and a net of 5 to take a majority of governorships. Can they do it? Here are my calls.

7 Dem seats not up for re-election
Safe Dem – VT, NY, PA, MN, CA
Likely Dem – NH, OR, HI
Likely Rep – AZ,
Safe Rep – OH, SC, TN, AL, IA, SD, NE, OK, TX, NM, WY, ID, NV
7 Rep seats not up for re-election

If those seats fall as expected, that would give the Democrats 15 seats, and the Republicans 21 seats. At that point, you add in the lean seats.

Lean Dem – RI, MD, CT, IL, KS, CO
Lean Rep – MA, GA, AR

I’ve never really bought into the idea of Rhode Island or Maryland being competitive. I think Raimondo and Brown win by much larger margins than polls are calling for. Illinois has been trending strongly in our direction and should be a 5% or so win for Quinn. Kansas I also expect will be a win of about that caliber as Kansans are simply done with Brownback. In Connecticut, Dan Malloy has had an impressive late comeback. I expect he gets a good chunk of the remaining undecideds in such a blue state and wins by 4 or 5%. And Colorado, well, you already know my feelings about Colorado polling. I think Hickenlooper wins by 6 or 7% and we’re left wondering how pollsters missed so badly. On the flip side, I see Nathan Deal coming close to or possibly clearing 50% on election night against Jason Carter. If he doesn’t, he’ll still win the runoff comfortably. The GOP will also pick up Arkansas by about an 8 or 9% margin. And maddeningly, it appears as though liberals in Massachusetts are engaging in a suicide operation to deny Martha Coakley the governorship because they are butt hurt over her losing the Senate race to Scott Brown. That’s despicable. In the end, Baker will be the beneficiary of that, winning by 5 or 6%.

That gives the Democrats 21 governorships to the Republicans 24. We move onto the 5 toss up races.

Toss Up/Tilt D: ME, FL, MI
Toss Up/Tilt R: WI, AK

Maine has been a really close race throughout, but with independent Eliot Cutler’s candidacy falling apart late, I feel that democrat Mike Michaud will pick up more of his defectors than will republican Paul LePage. I say Michaud wins by 3 or 4%. That brings us to Florida, where Charlie Crist and Rick Scott have battled all the way to the wire. Ultimately I think Crist pulls out a majority of the undecideds and wins by about 2%. Alaska, again, I think the polling is understating republican strength, and Sean Parnell will put out a 3 or 4% win.

We then have the two races that IMO are most likely to go to a recount out of the whole country, the governor’s races in Michigan and Wisconsin. Polls are showing a tied race in Michigan, and Wisconsin has the most polarized electorate in the nation. These two are so, so tough to call. I’m going to say that coattails from the Senate race are enough to get Schauer over the finish line to victory by 1% over Snyder, but that the power of incumbency is just enough to get Scott Walker to a victory against Mary Burke by 1%.

That gives the democrats a net of 3 governorships, winning ME, PA, FL, MI, and KS, but dropping MA and AR to the GOP. The GOP would hold onto a 26-24 majority in total governorships.

US HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES:
Ratings Map: URL=[IMG]http://i763.photobucket.com/...[/IMG][/URL]
Outcome Map: URL=[IMG]http://i763.photobucket.com/...[/IMG][/URL]

Coming into the night, the GOP holds 234 seats to the Democrats 201. The general consensus is that the Republicans will gain somewhere between 5 and 10 seats, and I think that’s pretty close to accurate. There are two very big problems with prognosticating the House this cycle. One issue is that there has not been nearly as much individual district polling this year as 2010 or 2012, so there’s less raw data out there to dissect. And secondly, the polling for the generic ballot has been all over the place. In the week before the election, we saw polls showing republicans up by 7 and 8%, but that a majority of polls actually had democrats ahead by a point or two. The aggregate is somewhere between a 1% and 2% republican edge, but most of the polls are not in that range, they are instead usually a few points left or right of that. Since where the GCB falls is massively important to where the House will fall as a whole, that makes my job very difficult.

My calls therefore, are a combination of polling, GCB, and just plain old hunch. Here’s the final board:

Likely Democratic
CT-5
CA-31
MA-9
WA-1
CO-7
IA-2
CA-3
CA-36
NH-2
HI-1

Lean Democratic
NY-18
FL-18
CA-24
NV-4
MN-7
TX-23
AZ-9

Tilt Democratic
IL-12
IA-1
CA-26
IL-10
NY-1
CA-7

Pure Toss Up/Democratic Win
NE-2
NY-24
ME-2
AZ-2
MA-6
GA-12
AR-2
FL-2

Pure Toss Up/Republican Win
IA-3
CO-6
CA-52
UT-4
AZ-1
MN-8

Tilt Republican
NJ-3
VA-10
NY-11
FL-26
NH-1
WV-3

Lean Republican
MI-7
IL-13
MI-1
WV-2
CA-21
KS-3
AR-4
MI-6
ND-1
MI-11
MT-1
AK-1

Likely Republican
NY-23
VA-2
KY-6
NY-21
KS-2
MI-8
PA-6
OH-14
IN-2
PA-8
WI-6
NJ-5

Democratic pickups: FL-2, AR-2, NE-2
Republican pickups: NH-1, NY-21, WV-3, NC-7, FL-26, GA-12, MN-8, UT-4, AZ-1
Total: R+6 – democrats 195, republicans 240

I feel pretty strongly about the 3 democratic pickups. I feel pretty good actually about the next 6 races down the board too, down to MN-8, but I have those 6 going GOP mostly because of the generic ballot and a few individual district polls. On the flip side, I see the last 8 democratic wins being very, very vulnerable. Therefore my true expected range is anywhere from Even to R+14 depending on where the GCB truly lies in this web of mystery.

So that’s my take on it. I wish good luck to all those who look to take my crown of Babka from 2012 in the DKE Prediction Contest. From the East Coast to the West Coast, to down South, to the Plains, the Rockies, and the Great Lakes, I hope all of you perform your civic duty and vote tomorrow if you haven’t voted early, and then you gather round to watch the results, doing whatever you do. Good karma and good luck to us all!

Poll

36 votes Show Results

What will be the net swing in the House of Representatives

36 votes Vote Now!

What will be the net swing in the House of Representatives

R+20 or worse

1 vote

R+15-19

1 vote

R+10-14

10 votes

R+5-9

14 votes

Even to R+4

9 votes

Even to D+4

0 votes

D+5-9

0 votes

D+10 or better

1 vote

StephenCLE's Election Ratings - 10/20

StephenCLE

Community (This content is not subject to review by Daily Kos staff prior to publication.)

Monday October 20, 2014 · 12:16 PM PDT

2014/10/20 · 12:16

Good morning Daily Kos nation. We're two weeks away from Election Day now, and it's time to get an updated look at where I see things.

Before we begin, a shameless plug...for most of you on here October is election season, but for avid distance runners like me it is also marathon season. Two days ago, I ran a personal best, finishing the 2014 Baltimore marathon in 3:13:33. It was a very enjoyable jog through one of the finer cities on the east coast, in a very blue state, I might add. Last year I ran in Philadelphia...to date all of my marathons have either been in blue or purple states (Ohio, Florida, Pennsylvania, Maryland), none in red.

But I digress...onto the analysis!

House of Representatives:

As of my last update in September, I had a net of Even for the entire House. Since then, there have been some positive individual district polls for Republicans, and they have inched slightly ahead in the pollster.com regression nationally, leading 44.6% to 43.5% as of this weekend. Ultimately since my last update, some districts have moved out of the blue column and into the red, giving the Republicans a gain of +5 nationally.

Total Democratic Pickups (4) - FL-2, AR-2, IA-3, NE-2
Total Republican Pickups (9) - NY-21, WV-3, NC-7, FL-26, MN-8, UT-4, AZ-1, AZ-2, CA-52

164 seats are safe for Democrats, 204 seats are safe for Republicans. Overall, there are 67 competitive seats on the board. I have 11 Likely D seats, 12 Lean D, 19 Toss Up, 8 Lean R, and 18 Likely R seats.

I've calculated my % predictions for these seats, and compared the average margin of victory with the average PVI of the battleground. Across the whole, you would expect these two numbers to be pretty darn close. Right now, the average margin of victory in the battleground is Republicans by .8%, and the PVI is R+1.2. That skews a little bit democratic, but the battleground is only 15% of all house seats, so I'm not completely convinced that the battleground will vote exactly in concert with the generic ballot and PVI. (It mostly did in 2012, but there were 91 districts in my battleground in 2012, a much larger sample size)

Ratings Map:
URL=[IMG]http://i763.photobucket.com/...[/IMG][/URL]

Outcome Map:
URL=[IMG]http://i763.photobucket.com/...[/IMG][/URL]

List of competitive races (in order of Dem winning/losing margin):
Likely Democratic
HI-1 - 57-42
CT-5 - 57-42
CA-31 - 57-43
IL-11 - 57-43
MA-9 - 56-43
WA-1 - 56-43
IA-2 - 56-44
CO-7 - 56-44
CA-3 - 55-44
IL-17 - 55-44
CA-36 - 55-44
Lean Democratic
NH-2 - 55-45
NY-18 - 55-45
NY-1 - 54-45
FL-18 - 54-45
IA-1 - 54-46
IL-10 - 53-46
GA-12 - 53-46
MN-7 - 53-46
NY-24 - 53-47
TX-23 - 53-47
AZ-9 - 53-47
ME-2 - 53-47
Toss Up / Tilt Democratic
IL-12 - 52-48
AR-2 - 52-48
CA-26 - 52-48
IA-3 - 51-48
CA-7 - 51-48
MA-6 - 51-49
NE-2 - 50-49
NH-1 - 50-49
FL-2 - 50-49
Toss Up/Tilt Republican - dem wins stop, rep wins start
NY-11 - 49-50
CO-6 - 49-50
CA-52 - 49-50
AZ-1 - 49-50
MN-8 - 49-50
----------------------------- current House by party (201 D, 234 R)
NJ-3 - 48-51
VA-10 - 48-51
FL-26 - 48-52
AZ-2 - 47-52
WV-3 - 47-52
Lean Republican
NY-21 - 47-53
MI-7 - 47-53
IL-13 - 46-53
MI-1 - 46-53
KS-3 - 46-54
ND-1 - 46-54
MI-11 - 45-54
MT-1 - 45-54
Likely Republican
NY-23 - 44-55
VA-2 - 44-55
CA-21 - 44-55
---------------------------- line of majority House control
KY-6 - 44-56
KS-2 - 44-56
MI-8 - 44-56
PA-6 - 43-56
UT-4 - 43-56
OH-14 - 43-56
IN-2 - 43-56
WV-2 - 43-57
IA-4 - 43-57
NY-19 - 43-57
PA-8 - 42-57
MI-6 - 42-57
WI-6 - 42-57
NJ-5 - 42-57

United States Senate:

The race for the Senate is still tight. I feel that the GOP has a small advantage in terms of likelihood of winning control of the chamber, but it's certainly not a done deal for Team Red. Here are the seats by rating:

URL=[IMG]http://i763.photobucket.com/...[/IMG][/URL]

Safe Dem - MA, RI, NJ, DE, IL, NM, OR, HI
Likely Dem - VA, MI, MN
Lean Dem - NH, NC
Toss Up/Tilt D - CO
Toss Up/Tilt R - GA, AR, IA, KS
Lean Rep - KY, LA, SD, AK
Likely Rep -
Safe Rep - ME, WV, TN, AL, MS, TX, NE, WY, MT, ID, SCx2, OKx2

At the beginning of the night, the Democrats will start with 34 seats, Republicans with 30. If you eliminate safe and likely seats, the Democrats have 45 seats to the Republicans' 44. At that point, you have 11 seats that are truly competitive, and I list them in order of democratic victory likelihood.

NH - Jeanne Shaheen doesn't have a big lead on Scott Brown, but she's been winning all cycle, and I don't see that changing.

NC - You occasionally have some bogus pollsters (coughGraviscough) putting Tillis into the lead, but in most reputable surveys Hagan is winning, and usually by 2-4 points. This is on the edge between Tilt and Lean D, but I feel pretty strongly on this one.

CO - The totality of all polling shows Udall behind Gardner by a few points, but a lot of reputable surveys are putting Udall ahead. Plus, CO is a state that always underrates democratic performance in polls. That coupled with less restrictive voting laws in CO compared to other states has me convinced that Udall will pull through.

GA - Incredibly, if you just had this as a straight up race, right now I would take Nunn to beat Purdue here. But as of now I have her winning a small plurality in the November round and then losing the runoff in January by a slim margin. The voting laws in GA could well cost us this seat.

IA - Here's a race that is sitting on a knife edge just like CO and GA. I feel that this will go the opposite direction from CO through and turn red on election night. The trend is in Braley's favor though, so I might change my mind on this by next week unless Ernst continues to put up good polling numbers.

KS - This one is just straight up weird. Orman and Roberts are very close in the polls, but the overall trend seems to be in the republican direction in KS right now. Given this and the massive ad reservations for the final weeks, I have to believe Roberts will pull through.

AR - Pryor has been very resilient and continues to scratch and claw for every vote. The race is close. Ultimately I just think his state has moved too far right for him though, and that he'll go down very narrowly on election night.

KY - I can never seem to make up my mind if this is a toss up race or a lean R race. Grimes has really hung tough throughout the campaign, but she's had a much tougher time picking up the undecideds than I would've expected. I have to pick McConnell to hang on at this point.

SD - This one is very hard to handicap because it's even weirder than the race in KS. Rounds has been a much weaker candidate than I had anticipated, and Weiland's support is growing ever so slightly. Really the big question here is will Weiland or Pressler's voters swing to the other in the last weeks to deny Rounds. Right now I say no, but this one is very unpredictable.

LA - Landrieu will stay strong enough to deny Cassidy a majority in the jungle election, but this year the runoff will be her Senatorial swan song. A rotten shame.

AK - The same goes for Begich, who I think will lose to Sullivan by a bigger margin than polls are projecting. Alaska is sort of the reverse of CO or NV in terms of polling.

In the end, this result would leave the Republicans in control of the Senate for the first time in a nearly a decade, holding 52 seats to the Democrats' 48, for a net gain of 7 seats. The easiest path I see to a democratic majority in 2015-2016 is NH+NC+CO+IA+GA...with the likeliest alternatives being AR, KY, SD, and KS assuming Orman caucuses with the Democrats. The simple fact of the matter is this...even if Democrats win all Senate races in the Obama seats minus Maine, that only gives them 49 seats. They absolutely must win in Colorado, North Carolina, and Iowa to even get to that point. After that, getting the 50th seat is going to be hard. The next 5 most likely seats to flip (GA, AR, KY, SD, and KS) all have PVIs of R+6 or worse. If you thought Democrats holding the Senate in 2010 or 2012 was a great escape...that's nothing compared to what 2014 will be if Team Blue gets out of Election Night with the majority.

State Governors:

The race for the governors' mansions are proving to be quite interesting, though perhaps lacking the drama of the battle for the Senate majority. There are actually many more seats in the toss up column here in relation to the total number of seats than there is for the Senate or the House. Here are my ratings:

URL=[IMG]http://i763.photobucket.com/...[/IMG][/URL]

Safe Dem - VT, NY, PA, CA
Likely Dem - NH, RI, MN, OR, HI
Lean Dem - ME, MD
Toss Up/Tilt Dem - MA, FL, IL, WI, KS, CO
Toss Up/Tilt Rep - CT, GA, MI, AZ
Lean Rep - AR, ID, AK
Likely Rep - SC, NM
Safe Rep - OH, TN, AL, IA, SD, NE, OK, TX, WY, NV

ME - This is a pretty crazy three way race, similar to the Senate race in South Dakota. Unlike that race though, it's pretty clear at this point that independent Cutler is nothing more than a potential spoiler. Assuming his numbers don't go up in the next week, I would assume that his support will drop as voters move toward democrat Michaud. Republican LePage has to hope that Michaud's share drops instead, since he can't really gain much on his own at this point. In the end I think Michaud wins by more than the polls expect.

MD - The polls are showing this race closer than expected, but in the end I can't see the republican winning even a plurality here.

MA - This race is pretty tight, possibly due to democratic fatigue and/or the fact that Baker is running a strong campaign. I still think that Coakley, who has a small lead in the polls, will hang on and win.

FL - Scott has thrown everything and the kitchen sink (and some fans) at Crist, but still can't pull into the lead. I have to believe that Crist will get those last few undecideds on board and win this one.

CO - The polls are showing some pretty strong results for Beauprez, but again, I think that polling skews way too far right here. Ultimately I think Hickenlooper prevails, and by more than we all expect.

KS - Unlike Orman in the Senate race, Davis has a really strong ground game and party infrastructure to fend off the attacks from Brownback down the stretch. I do believe that voters will take out their frustrations on Brownback and he will go down by a very slim margin.

IL - Can governor Quinn pull another rabbit out of the hat? For one, he's either leading or tied in polls this time, so his odds are much better than they were a year ago. I feel that his attacks on Rauner were successful, and that he will pull out a close victory on election night.

WI - This might be the closest race of the entire night. Wisconsin is so polarized with regard to governor Walker that nobody is changing their mind. This is going to come down to turnout, and in the end I think Burke will barely eke out a victory here.

CT - This race is going to be another barn burner. Unlike Quinn in IL, I feel that Malloy is up against a stronger opponent, and that he's simply made too many enemies to survive another election. This is where the republican wins start.

MI - Here's another race that is likely to go down to the wire. Snyder is definitely vulnerable but continues to hold a small lead in polls, and I think that Schauer comes close but doesn't do quite enough to get over the hump.

AZ - This is a race that honestly I know next to nothing about, and there has been very little polling on the race. I'm going to go with a republican hold right now but that could change if we see some trend in the polling numbers.

GA - Carter would have a very good chance to win here if he was going against Deal straight up in a first past the post contest. But that runoff just makes it all the more difficult for him. Unlike Nunn in the Senate race, I actually think Carter loses the first round narrowly. He then loses the runoff too and Deal gets re-elected.

AR - Ross has run a decent campaign and hasn't fallen far behind Hutchinson, but in the end this state is just too red.

AK - I'm quite skeptical of the polls here that show Parnell tied or losing. He's not exceptionally unpopular, and polls always underestimate republican performance. The independent and the democrat coming together on the other side makes this contest intriguing, but in the end I see Parnell holding on and winning.

At the end of the day, I see the democrats picking up a net of three governorships. Team Blue will pick up Pennsylvania, Maine, Florida, Wisconsin, and Kansas, while the Republicans pick up Connecticut and Arkansas.

Poll

66 votes Show Results

What governor race is most likely to go to a recount?

66 votes Vote Now!

What governor race is most likely to go to a recount?

Massachusetts

4 votes

Connecticut

6 votes

Georgia

3 votes

Florida

12 votes

Michigan

2 votes

Wisconsin

30 votes

Illinois

3 votes

Kansas

0 votes

Colorado

0 votes

Arizona

2 votes

Alaska

4 votes

Other

0 votes

StephenCLE's Baseline House Rankings - The Pacific Coast

StephenCLE

Community (This content is not subject to review by Daily Kos staff prior to publication.)

Tuesday September 16, 2014 · 6:52 PM PDT

2014/09/16 · 18:52

Hello DKE nation, and welcome to this final edition of StephenCLE’s baseline House Rankings. So far we’ve gone through the Northeast, Mid-Atlantic, Coastal Southeast, Great Lakes, Interior Southeast, Central Plains, and Rocky Mountains. There’s just one region left, and that’s the Pacific Coast. This region contains the states of Alaska, Washington, Oregon, California, and Hawaii. In all, we will look at 73 seats.

Before we start, let’s recap where we are at currently:

We have some ratings changes from earlier regions…mostly due to polling. Here’s what we have:

MA-6 – moves from Lean D to Likely D (unpopular/scandal-ridden incumbent loses primary)
ME-2 – moves from Lean D to Likely D (republican internal has republican down by 4)
AZ-1 – moves from Toss Up/Tilt D to Toss Up/Tilt R (republican internal has republican up by 8)
NY-21 – moves from Toss Up/Tilt R to Lean R (republican ahead by 10)
FL-26 – moves from Toss Up/Tilt D to Toss Up/Tilt R (poll showing R ahead + bad press for D)

Republican pickups so far – NY-21, NC-7, FL-26, WV-3, UT-4, AZ-1, AZ-2
Democratic pickups so far – NY-11, FL-2, NJ-3, AR-2, IA-3, NE-2, CO-6
National swing – Even

Prior to the end of our last update, the national swing was D+2…FL-26 & AZ-1 have now flipped from blue to red due to recent polling results, making the swing Even as we hit the Pacific Coast region.

AK-1 – Forrest Dunbar vs Don Young-inc
We start the Pacific Coast region up in Alaska. Don Young is the republican incumbent here, and though he’s got a bit of an ethical stench around him, he’s pretty much an institution in the great white north. Democrat Forrest Dunbar will try to beat him, but I don’t see it happening.
Rating – Safe R

WA-1 – Susan Delbene-inc vs Pedro Celis
We make our way down to Washington now, and the first district here is to the north of Seattle between the Puget Sound and the Cascades. This seat is one of the more competitive ones in the state in terms of PVI. Incumbent Susan Delbene took 54% in the 2012 election, same as Barack Obama. Republicans see this district as one of potential opportunity, but the top 2 primary here ended up being a very close outcome for the 2nd spot between 2 republicans. It appears that software engineer Pedro Celis will advance to November. At $196k in the bank to Delbene’s $843k, he doesn’t have much of a financial leg to stand on. This isn’t impossible for the GOP, but it’s very close to it.
Rating – Likely D

WA-2 – Rick Larsen-inc vs BJ Guillot
This district is more democratic than the 1st, at 59% Obama. Rick Larsen is the incumbent here, and he’s up against an underfunded Some Dude in BJ Guillot. He’s safe.
Rating – Safe D

WA-3 – Bob Dingethal vs Jaime Herrera-inc
The third district takes in most of southwestern Washington, a mashup of Portland suburbs and more rural areas inland and on the coast. Jaime Herrera, one of the few republican Hispanics out there and, dare I say, maybe most attractive republican congresscritter this side of Aaron Schock and Kristi Noem, is up for re-election two cycles after winning a tough battle against democrat Denny Heck, who now represents district 10. She wasn’t heavily targeted last cycle and won easily. Mitt Romney won here by 2%, making the district R+2 or R+3. The democrat running is Some Dude Bob Dingethal. Herrera is looking very good here.
Rating – Safe R

WA-4 – Open seat race
Doc Hasting’s retirement meant that this rural seat was open. It is the most republican seat in Washington, and 2 republicans finished in the top 2 spots in the top 2 primary, so it’s going to stay red in November regardless of whether Clint Didier or Dan Newhouse claims it.
Rating – Safe R

WA-5 – Joseph Pakootas vs Cathy McMorris Rodgers-inc
The Spokane-based 5th district is R+7, just out of range of what democrats can hope to win in a wave year. It’s not like it matters, because Cathy McMorris Rodgers is an institution here. Good luck Joseph Pakootas, you’re going to need it.
Rating – Safe R

WA-6 – Derek Kilmer-inc vs Marty McClendon
This district covers most of the Olympic Peninsula, and is D+6. Like a lot of WA districts it’s tempting for the other side to go after but not that favorable. Republican Marty McClendon will do his best, but he won’t really push incumbent Derek Kilmer.
Rating – Safe D

WA-7 – Jim McDermott-inc vs Craig Keller
This district covers most of Seattle. At nearly 80% Obama, this is safe for incumbent Jim McDermott.
Rating – Safe D

WA-8 – Jason Ritchie vs Dave Reichert-inc
This suburban district has frustrated democrats for years. Incumbent Dave Reichert has been a very powerful incumbent, surviving both democratic waves in 2006 and 2008. Obama won here by 2% over Mitt Romney, meaning that the seat is close to even in PVI. Despite that, it looks like democrats are waiting for Reichert to leave before challenging the seat…Some Dude Jason Ritchie is the candidate this cycle. Barring a scandal, he’s going to get snowed under.
Rating – Safe R

WA-9 – Adam Smith-inc vs Doug Basler
This district takes in Olympia and Tacoma along the south end of the Puget Sound. At 68% Obama, you won’t be seeing a republican winning here anytime soon.
Rating – Safe D

WA-10 – Denny Heck-inc vs Joyce McDonald
The final district in Washington is pretty much the same politically as the 6th district, roughly a 15% Obama advantage in 2012. Denny Heck is the incumbent here, and he drew what was on paper a decent challenger in former state representative Joyce McDonald. But even though McDonald took 41% in the top 2 primary, she’s raised almost no money whatsoever. For that reason, I can’t see this one being competitive.
Rating – Safe D

OR-1 – Suzanne Bonamici-inc vs Jason Yates
We head into the Beaver State now (or the Duck State, if you prefer). The first district takes in most of northwest Oregon. Democrat Suzanne Bonamici is in pretty democratic turf here, and her republican challenger is an underfunded Some Dude. She should easily win re-election.
Rating – Safe D

OR-2 – Aelea Cristofferson vs Greg Walden-inc
This seat takes in most of eastern and central Oregon, and is the most republican district in Oregon. Greg Walden is a strong incumbent too. Aelea Cristofferson might have the coolest sounding name of any democratic challenger this cycle, but she is little chance of becoming a US rep this cycle.
Rating – Safe R

OR-3 – Earl Blumenauer-inc vs James Buchal
This district is centered on Portland, and is massively democratic. Earl Blumenauer will be going back to Congress short of a massive scandal.
Rating – Safe D

OR-4 – Peter DeFazio-inc vs Art Robinson
The 4th district takes in most of southwest Oregon and is centered on Eugene. In terms of PVI, it’s only about D+2 as Obama won it by 7% over Romney. However, republicans eager for a pickup opportunity should temper the enthusiasm as incumbent Peter DeFazio is very entrenched. On paper the republicans picked up a good candidate in Oregon GOP chairman Art Robinson, but incredibly, he’s raised almost no money. Given that, there’s no way DeFazio gets beat.
Rating – Safe D

OR-5 – Kurt Schrader-inc vs Tootie Smith
Here’s a district that is virtually even in terms of PVI, as Obama won it by 3.5% in 2012, virtually identical to his national win. Here the republicans had a major recruiting fail, as their candidate, Tootie Smith, is a Some Dudette who has raised no money. Across the whole state, it’s amazing how noncompetitive republicans are in Oregon.
Rating – Safe D

CA-1 – Heidi Hall vs Doug Lamalfa-inc
The first district in California covers a lot of territory in the rural north. It’s solidly republican, so incumbent Doug Lamalfa should have no issues holding onto his seat.
Rating – Safe R

CA-2 – Jared Huffman-inc vs Dale Mensing
The second district is solidly democratic, and takes in most of California’s northwestern coast. Incumbent Jared Huffman has nothing to worry about.
Rating – Safe D

CA-3 – John Garamendi-inc vs Dan Logue
This district sits in the north central part of California, and has some rural and suburban territory. Obama won this district by 11% over Mitt Romney, making it about D+4. That’s about what republicans could reasonably contest if a wave were to develop. Republican Dan Logue is doing his best to put this one onto the board, as he has $323k in the bank, just behind Garamendi’s $342k which is a weak total for an incumbent in a non-safe district. Logue is a member of the California state Assembly, so he’s not a some dude. That all being said, Garamendi isn’t exactly chopped liver. He would have to do a very poor job campaigning to lose this one.
Rating – Likely D

CA-4 – nobody vs Tom McClintock-inc
No democrats ran for this solidly republican seat. Although incumbent Tom McClintock could possibly lose to fellow republican Art Moore in the general, that’s irrelevant as far as control goes.
Rating – Safe R

CA-5 – Mike Thompson-inc vs nobody
No republicans stepped up to run in the Napa Valley-based 5th district, so incumbent Mike Thompson is good for another term.
Rating – Safe D

CA-6 – Doris Matsui-inc vs Joseph McCray
The Sacramento-based 6th district is a relative democratic stronghold, I only say relative because there are many more solidly dem districts in the state even though this one is nearly 70% Obama. Republican Joseph McCray has no chance here.
Rating – Safe D

CA-7 – Ami Bera-inc vs Doug Ose
This district in suburban Sacramento is the first battleground district in California this cycle. It’s been a ruthless battleground the last few cycles. Democrat Ami Bera knocked off republican Dan Lungren by 3.5% in 2012, virtually mirroring the presidential vote as Barack Obama won by 4% over Mitt Romney. This district is virtually even in PVI, and that means that republicans are going to go hard to win it back. Their candidate is Doug Ose, a former 3-term congressman. This has all the makings of a tight race on the surface, but the fundraising game is a blowout. Bera is holding a warchest of nearly 2 million on hand, whereas Ose struggled to crack $200k on hand as of July. While I’m sure there will be a lot of outside spending in this contest, that financial deficit will be very hard for Ose to overcome unless there is a national tide against Democrats. Still, he’s got the profile and the district has the measurables to make Bera sweat all the way.
Rating – Toss Up/Tilt D

CA-8 – Bob Conaway vs Paul Cook-inc
This district takes in a lot of mountain and desert territory in the east of the state. As a fairly republican stronghold, it should easily re-elect Paul Cook over underfunded challenger Bob Conaway.
Rating – Safe R

CA-9 – Jerry McNerney-inc vs Tony Amador
This is a D+6 district sitting on the far east side of the Bay Area. Incumbent Jerry McNerney actually underperformed Obama here in 2012, winning by just 11% while Obama cruised by 16% over Mitt Romney. If republicans thought he was weak they aren’t showing it, as their candidate, former law enforcement officer Tony Amador, is only holding 13k on hand. That’s not enough to run a real campaign, especially not on democratic turf like this.
Rating – Safe D

CA-10 – Michael Eggman vs Jeff Denham-inc
This northern Central Valley district is nearly even in PVI, as Obama won here by 3.5% over Mitt Romney in 2012. Unfortunately for Democrats, incumbent republican Jeff Denham held on for a 5% win over democrat Jose Hernandez. This is one of those districts where a lot of the Dem base is Hispanic, and the worry is that off-year turnout is poor compared to presidential years. I haven’t done all the research into that line of thinking but there is probably a lot of truth to it. Regardless, democrat and farmer Michael Eggman has launched a fairly serious challenge against Denham, and he is holding over 500k in the bank as of July (though this pales to Denham’s 1.66 million warchest). With Jerry Brown set to romp in the governor’s race, that might provide a bit of an upballot boost to Eggman, but even so, he starts out at a disadvantage.
Rating – Lean R

CA-11 – Mark DeSaulnier vs Tue Phan-Quang
This Contre Costa county district was held by George Miller, who after 40 years is hanging it up this year. The democrat running is state senator Mark Desaulnier, and at D+17, he’ll have an easy general election.
Rating – Safe D

CA-12 – Nancy Pelosi-inc vs John Dennis
We head into San Francisco now, home of House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi. Needless to say, she’ll have an easy time of it against republican John Dennis.
Rating – Safe D

CA-13 – Barbara Lee-inc vs Dakin Sundeen
Believe it or not, the Oakland-based 13th district is actually more democratic than the San Francisco-based 12th, at 87% Obama to 84%. Barbara Lee won’t have any trouble here.
Rating – Safe D

CA-14 – Jackie Speier-inc vs Robin Chew
The San Mateo-based 14th is not quite as democratic as the 12th or 13th, but at 74% Obama, no republican will be winning here for a very long time. Jackie Speier will be back in January.
Rating – Safe D

CA-15 – Eric Swalwell-inc vs Hugh Bussell
This district actually had a very interesting primary round as the state senate majority leader, Ellen Corbett, challenged incumbent Eric Swalwell in the top 2 primary. In embarrassing fashion, Corbett finished third, not even making it to November. Swalwell’s opposition in the general is a republican Some Dude named Hugh Bussell. He won’t be getting within 2500 miles of Capitol Hill this year unless he buys a plane ticket.
Rating – Safe D

CA-16 – Jim Costa-inc vs Johnny Tacherra
This district is pretty close to California as a whole, won by Obama by 21% in 2012. Jim Costa is the incumbent and he’s not what you would consider vulnerable. Republican Jonny Tacherra is a poorly funded challenger, so I don’t see him putting up much of a fight.
Rating – Safe D

CA-17 – Mike Honda-inc vs nobody
This district is solidly democratic, solid enough that two democrats, incumbent Mike Honda and Ro Khanna advanced to the general election. Regardless of who wins the seat will stay blue.
Rating – Safe D

CA-18 – Anna Eshoo-inc vs Richard Fox
This seat is 68% Obama, so you won’t be seeing Republicans winning here anytime soon. Incumbent Anna Eshoo has this seat as long as she wants it.
Rating – Safe D

CA-19 – Zoey Lofgren-inc vs nobody
No republican stepped up to run in this solidly blue district. Incumbent Lofgren has another democrat to face off against in November, but regardless of the outcome it will stay democratic.
Rating – Safe D

CA-20 – Sam Farr-inc vs nobody
No republican stepped up to face incumbent Sam Farr in this seat, so it will stay blue for another cycle.
Rating – Safe D

CA-21 – Amanda Renteria vs David Valadao-inc
The 21st district covers a great portion of the Central Valley. Barack Obama won this district by 11% in 2012, making it somewhere around D+3. Incumbent David Valadao therefore should be one of the most vulnerable republicans in the nation. He drew a tough challenger in democrat Amanda Renteria, who is holding around 396k in the bank as of July. However, if there’s one district that is supposedly emblematic of democratic dropoff in voter turnout between presidential years and off years, this is it. SurveyUSA must be seeing that right now, as their poll last week had Valadao up an impressive 56-37. This isn’t an impossible race by any stretch for Renteria, but clearly she’s down right now and will have to work hard to catch up.
Rating – Likely R

CA-22 – Suzanna Aguilera vs Devin Nunes-inc
This is a rare republican region of California, covering some of the lower Central Valley. At just 41% Obama, democrat Suzanna Aguilera has a lot of work to do to win here. I expect incumbent Devin Nunes to cruise.
Rating – Safe R

CA-23 – Raul Garcia vs Kevin McCarthy-inc
This lower Central Valley district is even more republican than the neighboring 22nd. Kevin McCarthy won’t have any trouble with democrat Raul Garcia.
Rating – Safe R

CA-24 – Lois Capps-inc vs Chris Mitchum
This coastal district takes in Santa Barbara and communities along the Pacific Coast northwest of the LA area. Obama only won here by 11%, so you’d think republicans would take a flyer on contesting this district. However, their candidate, Chris Mitchum, has no money and no real profile.
Rating – Safe D

CA-25 – nobody vs Tony Strickland/Stephen Knight
This district was one that Mitt Romney only won by 2% over Barack Obama, so you’d figure democrats would be able to contest it. However, democratic turnout in the primary was horrific, and two republicans made it through the top 2 primary. The seat will stay blue.

CA-26 – Julia Brownley-inc vs Jeff Gorell
This was one of the districts that was greatly changed by the citizens’ commission in the last redistricting. Julia Brownley won it in 2012 over Tony Strickland, who is now running in the nearby 25th district. This time around, Brownley has a massive warchest of 1.5 million and is geared up for a major republican challenge in this 54% Obama district. State assemblyman Jeff Gorell is the republican candidate, and he has about 306k in the bank as of July. Even though republicans did great in the top 2 primary round here, I’m not putting a lot of stock in that as democrats generally do worse in the primary round than in the general in California. Brownley definitely has the advantage here but it’s not a gimme.
Rating – Lean D

CA-27 – Judy Chu-inc vs Jack Orswell
We’re starting to move into the Los Angeles area now, which is a haven of massively blue districts. This is the first such district, held by democrat Judy Chu. She won’t have any trouble against republican Jack Orswell.
Rating – Safe D

CA-28 – Adam Schiff-inc vs nobody
Democrat Adam Schiff is only facing minor party opposition, so he’s going back to Congress.
Rating – Safe D

CA-29 – Tony Cardenas-inc vs William Leader
The 29th district is another democratic safe haven. Tony Cardenas is the democratic incumbent, and he’s up against a republican Some Dude in William Leader. This won’t be competitive.
Rating – Safe D

CA-30 – Brad Sherman-inc vs Mark Reed
The 30th district isn’t quite as democratic as some SoCal districts, but at 65% Obama, you won’t see republicans making a major push for this one anytime soon. Some Dude candidate Mark Reed doesn’t have the resources to trouble Brad Sherman anyway.
Rating – Safe D

CA-31 – Pete Aguilar vs Paul Chabot
This was the district where, despite it being 57% Obama, the democrats were shut completely out of the general election as 2 republicans advanced through the top 2 primary. That scenario very nearly happened again this year as democrat Pete Aguilar barely beat out republican Leslie Gooch for the second spot in the general. But now that he is there, Aguilar is definitely favored to beat republican Paul Chabot despite the latter’s strong performance in the primary round. Chabot is holding less than 30k on hand as of July while Aguilar has nearly 350k. That’s huge. You couple that with the fact that the district has a D+6 PVI, and it’s a longshot for the GOP to hold this seat. Finally, after 47 seats, we have a seat changing hands in the Pacific Coast region.
Rating – Likely D (8th Dem pickup nationally, national swing D+2)

CA-32 – Grace Napolitano-inc vs Art Alas
Here’s another district where Obama pulled in about 65% of the vote. Incumbent Grace Napolitano really shouldn’t have any trouble against her underfunded challenger.
Rating – Safe D

CA-33 – Ted Lieu vs Elan Carr
This is Henry Waxman’s district, but he’s hanging it up at the end of this cycle. The top 2 primary was a real free for all to determine who would advance to the general election. The victors there were republican Elan Carr and democrat Ted Lieu. Both candidates are holding somewhere around 250k on hand, so there’s no real cash on hand gap to talk about. The district is about 60% Obama, so it’s not exactly fertile territory for republicans. Unless if Lieu has some real skeletons in his closet or is the worst campaigner ever, he’s going to win this one.
Rating – Safe D

CA-34 – Xavier Becerra vs nobody
We head into the heart of Los Angeles now, and this Hispanic majority district is one of the most democratic districts in California as well as the nation. No republican is running so it will stay blue.
Rating – Safe D

CA-35 – Norma Torres/Christina Gagnier vs nobody
Another inner LA district, incumbent Gloria McLeod is retiring, but two democrats advanced to the general election here so regardless of the outcome in November the seat will stay blue.
Rating – Safe D

CA-36 – Raul Ruiz-inc vs Bryan Nestande
One of the surprise winners on election night 2012 was Raul Ruiz, who took out republican Mary Bono Mack in a close contest here in the 36th district. Barack Obama won this seat by 3%, roughly the same as his national win. Given this information, you knew the GOP was going to try hard to win this Palm Springs-based district back. State assemblyman Brian Nestande made it through the top 2 primary and is Ruiz’s opponent. He has a strong political profile, but where he is struggling is in fundraising. He has just $230k in the bank, and he’s going up against a huge 1.9 million warchest for Ruiz. Ruiz clearly has a lot of political skill given his upset win over Bono Mack last cycle, and with his vast resources, he won’t be easy to knock off.
Rating – Lean D

CA-37 – Karen Bass-inc vs Adam King
This district is among the most democratic in California. Karen Bass will be hard pressed to not get over 80% of the vote on election night.
Rating – Safe D

CA-38 – Linda Sanchez-inc vs Benjamin Campos
Here’s another district that is roughly 65% Obama. Incumbent Linda Sanchez is up against a very poor and underfunded republican challenger, so I don’t see how this will be competitive.
Rating – Safe D

CA-39 – Peter Anderson vs Ed Royce-inc
This Orange County district used to be solidly red, but Barack Obama came within 4 points of winning it in 2012. You’d think that the Democrats might try to capitalize on the bluing trend here, but their candidate is an underfunded Some Dude. Ed Royce is safe.
Rating – Safe R

CA-40 – Lucille Roybal vs nobody
This is one of the most democratic districts in the nation. Two democrats advanced to the general election, so regardless of the result the seat will stay blue.
Rating – Safe D

CA-41 – Mark Takano-inc vs Steve Adams
It’s almost hard to believe that republicans were targeting this district at one point in 2012. Barack Obama won here by 25%, and current incumbent Mark Takano rolled to an 18% victory. This will be an easier victory this time around as republican Steve Adams won’t put up much of a fight.
Rating – Safe D

CA-42 – Tim Sheridan-inc vs Ken Calvert-inc
This is one of the few strongly republican districts in southern California. Ken Calvert should have an easy time against democrat Tim Sheridan.
Rating – Safe R

CA-43 – Maxine Waters-inc vs John Wood
Another very strongly democratic LA-based district here. Maxine Waters is safe.
Rating – Safe D

CA-44 – Janice Hahn-inc vs nobody
No republican stepped up to run in this democratic vote sink, so Janice Hahn is going back to Congress.
Rating – Safe D

CA-45 – Drew Leavens vs Mimi Walters
Incumbent John Campbell is retiring this cycle, creating a rare open seat. State senator Mimi Walters was the leading vote getter in the top 2 primary. The GOP very nearly got 2 candidates into the general but the 2nd spot was taken by democrat Drew Leavens. In the end it probably won’t matter, as this district is solidly republican and Walters has real money, something that Leavens doesn’t.
Rating – Safe R

CA-46 – Loretta Sanchez-inc vs Adam Nick
This Orange County-based district contains many of the most democratic parts of the OC. Loretta Sanchez is up against an underfunded Some Dude in Adam Nick, so she’ll likely win big.
Rating – Safe D

CA-47 – Alan Lowenthal-inc vs Andy Whallon
This district is yet another 60%-ish Obama district. Incumbent Alan Lowenthal is facing yet another republican Some Dude with no money. Next.
Rating – Safe D

CA-48 – Sue Savary vs Dana Rohrabacher-inc
Dana Rohrabacher sits in a 55% Romney district, and he’s a pretty popular figure compared to most GOP incumbents. Democrat Sue Savary doesn’t have much of a chance here.
Rating – Safe R

CA-49 – Dave Peiser vs Darrell Issa-inc
Darrell Issa is a pretty polarizing figure and a subject of real hatred among most democrats. However, he sits in a rather republican district and his democratic challenger is underfunded. He’s safe.
Rating – Safe R

CA-50 – James Kimber vs Duncan Hunter-inc
This is one of the most republican districts in California at nearly 61% Romney. Duncan Hunter has nothing to worry about here.
Rating – Safe R

CA-51 – Juan Vargas-inc vs Stephen Meade
This district includes part of San Diego as well as Imperial County. As with most districts along the Mexican border, it is solidly democratic. Juan Vargas will easily win here.
Rating – Safe D

CA-52 – Scott Peters-inc vs Carl DeMaio
We come now to the final competitive district in the country. The 52nd district takes in most of San Diego’s northern suburbs. Barack Obama won this seat by 6.5% in 2012, making the seat very marginally democratic in PVI. Incumbent Scott Peters won by 2% over republican Brian Bilbray on the same night, but his close victory ensured that he was going to be heavily targeted by the GOP. Indeed, San Diego councilman and 2012 mayoral candidate Carl DeMaio decided to try his luck, and he made it through the top 2 primary to reach the general. DeMaio is fairly well liked in GOP circles, and he has raised a ton of money, holding 1.4 million on hand. That’s impressive for a challenger. Not to be outdone, Peters is holding 1.9 million on hand. The most recent poll of this race had Peters leading DeMaio by a 48-43. This race honestly makes me nervous, but based strictly on the numerical data, I keep the seat blue by the smallest of margins.
Rating – Toss Up/Tilt D

CA-53 – Susan Davis-inc vs Larry Wilske
The final district in California is centered on San Diego. It’s not as solidly democratic as many urban districts are, but it’s still a district that Obama won by 25%. Susan Davis won’t have any trouble.
Rating – Safe D

HI-1 – Mark Takai vs Charles Djou
We finish out our countrywide tour in the Hawaiian Islands. This 1st district takes in most of Oahu, and with Colleen Hanabusa’s running for Senate, this seat is open. The democratic primary was won by state representative Mark Takai, who took out state Senate majority leader Donna Mercado Kim. The republican primary was won by former congressman Charles Djou. Djou might have some residual name recognition here, but he only won this seat via special election because asshole Ed Case split the democratic vote with Colleen Hanabusa. He can’t win a 1 on 1 race in a seat this democratic.
Rating – Safe D

HI-2 – Tulsi Gabbard-inc vs Kawika Crowley
This final district takes in the rest of the Hawaiian Islands. Democrat Tulsi Gabbard is an Iraq war veteran and the only Hindu in the US House, not to mention one of the most attractive democratic congresscritters you’ll find. She sits in a massively blue district. She has this seat as long as she wants it.
Rating – Safe D

Final Conclusions – Well that’s it. After 50 states and 435 districts, we’ve covered every inch of America there is at the congressional level of government. The simple fact of the matter is this…unless we see a major swing in the generic congressional ballot or individual district fundamentals, this is likely to be a wash election without a lot of change in the balance of power. At the present time, I see the republicans picking up 7 seats, the democrats picking up 8, for a national swing of D+1, 233 republicans to 202 democrats. At the time I looked at all the seats, my swing was D+4. I made a significant error in judgment as to the strength of Sean Eldridge’s candidacy in NY-19, which put that seat into the red column after my third regional update. Recent polling results have caused AZ-1 to flip from blue to red, and some negative press for Joe Garcia combined with some poor polling (albeit from McLaughlin, who is generally worthless so I didn’t put much stock in it) resulted in FL-26 going from blue to red.

From here, I’ll be updating the board once a week, most likely on Monday, as the campaigns come down the stretch to Election Day.

House Ratings Map:

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House Outcome Map:

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R+21 or worse

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StephenCLE's Baseline House Ratings - Central Plains & Rocky Mountains

StephenCLE

Community (This content is not subject to review by Daily Kos staff prior to publication.)

Sunday August 31, 2014 · 12:58 PM PDT

2014/08/31 · 12:58

Hello DKE nation, and welcome to this penultimate edition of StephenCLE’s baseline House Rankings. So far we’ve gone through the Northeast, Mid-Atlantic, Coastal Southeast, Great Lakes, and Interior Southeast, leaving just 3 regions of our great country to go. In this diary we will hit 2 of these remaining 3 for a nice double feature. Today we start in the Central Plains, before finishing in the Rocky Mountains. The Central Plains features the states of Minnesota, Iowa, Missouri, Oklahoma, Kansas, Nebraska, South Dakota, and North Dakota. The Rocky Mountains cover the states of Montana, Wyoming, Colorado, New Mexico, Arizona, Utah, Nevada, and Idaho. In all, we will look at 65 seats.

Before we start, let’s recap where we are at currently:

We have some ratings changes from earlier regions…mostly due to polling. Here’s what we have:
NY-19 – moves from Toss Up/Tilt D to Likely R (this is now a republican hold)
IA-2 – moves from Likely D to Lean D
FL-2 – moves from Toss Up/Tilt R to Toss Up/Tilt D (this is now a democratic pickup)
MI-8 – moves from Toss Up/Tilt R to Lean R

Republican pickups so far – NY-21, NC-7, WV-3
Democratic pickups so far – NY-11, FL-2, NJ-3, AR-2
National swing – D+1

MN-1 – Tim Walz-inc vs Aaron Miller
We start the Central Plains region in Minnesota. The first district takes in most of south MN, and is held by powerful democratic incumbent Tim Walz. This mostly rural seat has been carried by Obama twice but actually has an R+1 PVI. Account manager Aaron Miller is going up against Walz this November, but he’s got just $104k in the bank. Walz isn’t exactly setting the world on fire at $542k, but he did take out his opponent by 14% in 2012 as Obama was edging Romney by 1%. A republican upset isn’t impossible here, but it would be a surprise.
Rating – Likely D

MN-2 – Mike Obermueller vs John Kline-inc
This seat in suburban Minneapolis was razor-thin close in the 2012 presidential, with Barack Obama winning by .1%. It’s R+2 in PVI, and incumbent republican John Kline is pretty powerful. He defeated opponent Mike Obermueller by 8% in 2012. Obermueller is back for another shot at Kline, in what might not be as good a year nationally for his party, but he might get good performances from Al Franken and Mark Dayton up ticket. That being said, he’s up against Kline’s massive 1.68 million warchest, and he has just $289k in the bank. I have to say that Kline is definitely favored, but Obermueller is an established candidate with some decent resources. The incumbent will be tested here.
Rating – Lean R

MN-3 – Sharon Sund vs Erik Paulsen-inc
The third district sits in Minneapolis’s western suburbs. Obama carried this district twice, doing so by 1% in 2012. However, this seat is very, very ancestrally republican, and has proven a difficult nut for democrats to crack at the local level. Incumbent Erik Paulsen ran way ahead of his underfunded democratic challenger in 2012, winning by 17%. This year might be a little more hairy for him though, as democrats appear to have landed a credible challenger in Hennepin County DFL (Democratic-Farmer-Labor) chairwoman Sharon Sund. I’m not sure about her fundraising numbers as neither Ballotpedia nor DKE is tracking them, but I have to figure somebody in her position would be well connected with donors. This district is still an uphill climb for Congressional democrats, but Sund will definitely make Paulsen work harder than he had to in 2012.
Rating – Likely R

MN-4 – Betty McCollum-inc vs Sharna Wahlgren
The Saint Paul-based 4th district is very, very democratic in nature. Incumbent Betty McCollum should have it easy against underfunded challenger Sharna Wahlgren.
Rating – Safe D

MN-5 – Keith Ellison-inc vs Doug Daggett
The Minneapolis-based 5th district is the most democratic district in Minnesota. It’s a lock that Keith Ellison, one of the few muslim members of Congress, will retain his seat.
Rating – Safe D

MN-6 – Open seat race
This is Michelle Bachmann’s seat, or at least it was, but she is retiring this cycle. The open seat is being pursued by two strong republicans in 2010 gubernatorial candidate Tom Emmer and Anoka County Commissioner Rhonda Sivarajah. At R+9, this seat is not what would normally be considered competitive, but it has seen many competitive contests in recent years due to Bachmann’s nuttiness. Democratic mayor of Sartell Joe Perske will hope that this phenomenon isn’t specific to her, and that he can continue to get voters that voted against Bachmann to vote against the winner of the republican primary. I think his odds of winning are slim, but if the republican primary is particularly nasty and he is able to get national support, maybe there’s a chance.
Rating – Likely R

MN-7 – Collin Peterson-inc vs Torrey Westrom
The 7th district takes in much of western Minnesota. It is a seat that leans pretty far toward the republicans, but also features a very powerful democratic incumbent in Collin Peterson. Peterson took out his republican opponent by 26% in 2012 while Mitt Romney was beating Barack Obama at the top of the ticket. That’s impressive. Republicans are running a pretty solid candidate in state senator Torrey Westrom. He seems to have some decent political skill and some decent cash on hand too at $328k. That being said, Peterson isn’t your ordinary incumbent. I can only see him losing if there is a massive red wave in November, but we’ll keep watching this one anyway.
Rating – Likely D

MN-8 – Rick Nolan-inc vs Stewart Mills
This district, which takes in Duluth and much of the Iron Range but also more conservative counties northeast of Minneapolis-Saint Paul, is the site of a competitive contest. Rick Nolan won this seat in 2012 over Chip Cravaack by 9%, and Barack Obama won here by 6%. Given that this is a marginally democratic seat with a freshman incumbent (though given his earlier term in Congress he’s not your typical freshman) you knew republicans were going to go hard after this seat. Businessman Stewart Mills is running for the seat for the republicans, and he’s been fundraising quite well, barely running behind Nolan at $429k to $579k. The issue for Mills is twofold though. This seat is more democratic at the local level than at the national level, and Minnesota, unlike a lot of states, is looking at a democratic romp at the top of the ticket. Those two factors are enough to put this race into Lean D territory, but Nolan certainly can’t sleep on this one.
Rating – Lean D

IA-1 – Pat Murphy vs Rod Blum
The first district in Iowa takes in most of the state’s northeast. At D+5, it is the most democratic district in the state, just a smidge ahead of the neighboring 2nd. Incumbent Bruce Braley is running for the open Senate seat vacated by Tom Harkin, so this seat is open as well. There were contested primaries on both sides. The democratic primary was won by state representative Pat Murphy, who appears to have a very solid political profile. The republican primary was won by Rod Blum, a software developer and business owner. Fundraising wise both combatants are fairly tapped out after the primary round, with Blum holding a small lead. PVI-wise, this isn’t exactly fertile territory for republicans, as it didn’t even fall in 2010, plus Murphy seems pretty capable.
Rating – Likely D

IA-2 – Dave Loebsack-inc vs Marinette Miller-Meeks
The second district takes in most of southeastern Iowa, including democratic bastions in the quad cities and in Iowa City. The seat is D+5 just like the first district. Here we have a rematch of 2010 brewing. Incumbent Dave Loebsack took out his republican opponent by 13% in 2012, right in line with Barack Obama’s win over Mitt Romney. Marinette Miller-Meeks, who came within 5% of unseating Loebsack in 2010, is back for another shot this time around. In the fundraising race, Loebsack leads $709k to $269k. I get the feeling that Loebsack isn’t the strongest incumbent out there, but if Miller-Meeks couldn’t win in 2010, I’m not sure how she intends to get it done this time around.
Rating – Likely D

IA-3 – Staci Appel vs David Young
The third district stretches from Des Moines to the Mississippi River. It’s virtually even in PVI, as Barack Obama beat Mitt Romney by 4%, right around his national win. Incumbent Tom Latham decided to retire, which opened this seat up. There was a contested primary on the republican side that ended up being thrown to a convention after nobody cleared 35% of the vote. Chuck Grassley’s former chief of staff, David Young, was chosen by the GOP conventioneers. The democratic candidate is former state senator Staci Appel, and surprisingly, she was uncontested in the democratic primary, meaning that she was able to save her powder for the general election. That is reflected in the fact that she has over $700k in the bank right now and Young is tapped out from the primary/convention with under $100k. That’s a huge advantage. I have to figure both of these candidates are pretty astute politicians, but because of the money advantage at the moment, I’m tilting this one in Appel’s favor.
Rating – Toss Up/Tilt D (5th democratic pickup nationally, national swing D+2)

IA-4 – Jim Mowrer vs Steve King-inc
The 4th district stretches from Ames over toward Sioux City, and takes in most of northwest Iowa. This is the home of weapons grade wingnut Steve King. This district was one of my biggest misses in 2012, where I projected democrat Christie Vilsack to beat King, and she ended up losing by 8%, about the same margin that Mitt Romney beat Barack Obama by. Still, I feel that there is good reason for republicans to be concerned here. There was a poll by PPP from last year showing Generic D beating King by 4%, which was a little surprising. Democrats then went out and got a solid candidate in Iraq war veteran Jim Mowrer. Mowrer has been a fundraising star thus far, holding $717k in the bank, which beats King’s total of $443k. You never want to trailing in fundraising as an incumbent, especially when your mouth tends to make a lot of headlines. I’m feeling a little gun shy here because of my miss last cycle, but King is definitely vulnerable here.
Rating – Lean R

MO-1 – Lacy Clay-inc vs Daniel Elder
We move now into Missouri, and the first district is centered in Saint Louis. At 80% Obama, this seat is the most democratic in Missouri, and it’s a safe haven for democratic incumbent Lacy Clay.
Rating – Safe D

MO-2 – Arthur Lieber vs Ann Wagner-inc
This seat sits west of Saint Louis and takes in some suburban and exurban territory. It’s actually the third most democratic district in the state, but at R+10 PVI, it’s not exactly fertile territory. Democrat Arthur Lieber is basically a sacrificial lamb against republican incumbent Ann Wagner.
Rating – Safe R

MO-3 – Courtney Denton vs Blaine Luetkemeyer-inc
The third district takes in a lot of rural territory in the eastern portion of the state. It’s a very republican seat, and democrat Courtney Denton doesn’t have the resources needed to compete. It’s a wrap.
Rating – Safe R

MO-4 – Nate Irvin vs Vicki Hartzler-inc
The 4th district is another rural seat, taking in much of western and central Missouri. Vicki Hartzler knocked off longtime incumbent Ike Skelton in 2010, and pretty much has this seat on lockdown now. Democrat Nate Irvin, I wish you good luck, because you’re going to need it.
Rating – Safe R

MO-5 – Emanuel Cleaver-inc vs Jacob Turk
The 5th district takes in Kansas City and some territory to its east. The seat isn’t as democratic as the Saint Louis-based 1st, but at D+8, you won’t see many republican strategists looking for a pickup here. 2012 candidate Jacob Turk is back for another go, but his chances of winning are very, very small.
Rating – Safe D

MO-6 – Bill Hedge vs Sam Graves-inc
The 6th is a rural district in the state’s northwest. Another district that gave Obama less than 40% of the vote, it’s pretty safe republican territory. Incumbent Sam Graves should easily win another term.
Rating – Safe R

MO-7 – Jim Evans vs Billy Long-inc
The 7th district is centered on Springfield and Joplin, and is the most republican district in the state. Incumbent Billy Long will have no trouble holding onto his seat in November.
Rating – Safe R

MO-8 – Barbara Stocker vs Jason Smith-inc
Rounding out the Show Me State, which hasn’t shown me anything in terms of competitive House races, we have the southeastern rural 8th district. Incumbent Jason Smith looks to be safe against underfunded challenger Barbara Stocker.
Rating – Safe R

OK-1 – nobody vs Jim Bridenstine-inc
We move now into Oklahoma, which was the reddest state in the nation in 2008, and only got redder in the 2012 election. The first district is centered on Tulsa. Democrats elected not to contest this district, which Romney won 66-34.
Rating – Safe R

OK-2 – Earl Everett vs Markwayne Mullin-inc
The 2nd district takes in most of eastern Oklahoma. The seat was previously held by blue dog democrat Dan Boren, but it’ll be a long time before a democrat ever holds it again.
Rating – Safe R

OK-3 – Frankie Robbins vs Frank Lucas-inc
The 3rd district is one of the most republican districts in the nation. Incumbent Frank Lucas is a shoo-in this November.
Rating – Safe R

OK-4 – Bert Smith vs Tom Cole-inc
The 4th district is mostly rural, taking in the southwest part of the state. Incumbent Tom Cole is pretty powerful, but even if he wasn’t he wouldn’t have much chance of losing in this sea of red.
Rating – Safe R

OK-5 – Open seat race
The Oklahoma City-based 5th district is the only part of the state that is trending toward the democrats. Still, Romney won here by a 59-41 margin, so you can’t say it’s a realistic seat to win. The seat is open, and there were contested primaries on both sides, both of which went to runoffs. On the republican side, former state senator Steve Russell and Oklahoma Corporation Commissioner Patrice Douglas made the runoff. On the democratic side, state senator Al McAffrey and some dude Tom Guild will face off in the runoff election. Regardless of what happens there I have to believe the seat will stay red barring a scandal or something unforeseen.
Rating – Safe R

KS-1 – James Sherow vs Tim Huelskamp-inc
We move into Kansas now, starting in a district called the “Big First”. It takes in most of western and northern Kansas and is one of the most republican districts in the nation. Incumbent Tim Huelskamp has nothing to worry about here.
Rating – Safe R

KS-2 – Margie Wakefield vs Lynn Jenkins-inc
The 2nd district takes in rural territory in east Kansas, but also includes the state capital of Topeka and the college town of Lawrence. This was Nancy Boyda’s old seat before she was unseated by current incumbent Lynn Jenkins. Democrats found a pretty promising candidate here in attorney and Douglas County Dem Party chair Margie Wakefield. Wakefield has been in politics all her life, even serving as staff for former senator Bob Dole, so she’s got some political chops. She’s getting pounded in the money race though, holding just $236k to Jenkins’s almost 2 million. However, there seems to be somewhat of an anti-republican backlash brewing in Kansas this cycle with governor Sam Brownback locked in a toss up race and senator Pat Roberts not polling well of late. I wonder if this dynamic could trickle down the ballot, and if it does that could be huge for Wakefield. Still, this is an R+8 district, so even in the best of circumstances it won’t be easy to win.
Rating – Likely R

KS-3 – Kelly Kultala vs Kevin Yoder-inc
The third district takes in suburbs of Kansas City, and is the most democratic district in Kansas even though it is R+6. Kevin Yoder is the republican incumbent here, and it’s hard to tell how strong he is because democrats failed to contest the district in 2012. This time around, they have a pretty good candidate in former state senator Kelly Kultala. Her issue thus far has been fundraising, she had just 60k in the bank in April, and I can’t find July since neither Ballotpedia nor DKE has the numbers. That being said, it appears that the GOP in Kansas is having a really bad year, and it could trickle downballot. For that reason I feel we still have to keep an eye on this one.
Rating – Likely R

KS-4 – Perry Schuckman vs Mike Pompeo-inc
The Wichita-based 4th district saw a nasty republican primary between incumbent Mike Pompeo and former 4th district rep Todd Tiahrt. Pompeo was victorious there, so all that’s left between him and another term is underfunded democratic challenger Perry Schuckman.
Rating – Safe R

NE-1 – Dennis Crawford vs Jeff Fortenberry-inc
The first district in Nebraska covers most of the eastern part of the state not including Omaha. Incumbent Jeff Fortenberry is a powerful political figure, and this is very red territory. I don’t see democrat Dennis Crawford putting up much of a fight.
Rating – Safe R

NE-2 – Brad Ashford vs Lee Terry-inc
The Omaha-based 2nd district has been the site of some really close contests in recent years, the most notable of which saw Barack Obama beat John McCain here by 1% in 2008 to win an electoral vote. Incumbent Lee Terry is a very weak congresscritter, barely scraping by against challenger John Ewing in 2012 by 1.5%. The democrats continue to go after Terry hard. Their candidate is state representative/senator (lol, unicameral legislature) Brad Ashford. He’s a longtime veteran in Nebraska politics, so his profile should be a great fit for the seat. The crazy thing is that his fundraising hasn’t been all that good…he has just $186k in the bank compared to $681k for Terry. However, Terry seems to be uniquely unpopular, and polling is bearing that out, Terry is drawing mid 40s right now and is actually trailing Ashford as of the last survey. In the last 2 election cycles, most of the incumbents polling under 45% and/or losing to their challengers at or before Labor Day ended up losing in November. Therefore, I think Terry’s goose is cooked.
Rating – Toss Up/Tilt D (6th democratic pickup nationally, national swing D+3)

NE-3 – Mark Sullivan vs Adrian Smith-inc
The 3rd district takes in the western 2/3 of the state and is a hugely republican district. Incumbent Adrian Smith is a lock for another term.
Rating – Safe R

SD-1 – Corinna Robinson vs Kristi Noem-inc
We now move into the one seat states, four in a row starting with South Dakota. Four years ago, Kristi Noem knocked off former incumbent Stephanie Herseth in what was as much a battle of physical attraction as it was political wits. Since then, Noem hasn’t been that strong, underperforming Mitt Romney by 4% last cycle. If the democrats had a solid candidate here this could be interesting. On paper, challenger Corinna Robinson is an Iraq War veteran with a long military background, which can often be a winner. The issue for Robinson is that she only had $20k in the bank in April…not sure about now since July isn’t up on Ballotpedia or DKE. That’s just not enough to run a winning campaign, so I think Noem should have it easy unless the fundamentals change somehow.
Rating – Safe R

ND-1 – George Sinner vs Kevin Cramer-inc
The lone seat in North Dakota is held by republican Kevin Cramer. Cramer knocked off Pam Gulleson in 2012, but underperformed Mitt Romney by 6% in doing so. The Dakotas have a history of electing democrats to Congress, so a good democratic candidate could thread the needle. State senator George Sinner is taking his shot this cycle, and he’s got some decent money behind him at $274k. Cramer isn’t exactly sitting on a warchest at $653k, so this could end up being competitive. Cramer is definitely favored though given the state’s PVI.
Rating – Likely R

MT-1 – John Lewis vs Ryan Zinke
We enter the Rocky Mountain region now, starting with the great state of Montana. Here the incumbent, Steve Daines, is running for the senate, so the seat is open. There were contested primaries on both sides, and the general election will be contested between former lieutenant governor candidate and US navy SEAL Ryan Zinke, and some dude John Lewis. It seems to me that Zinke has the stronger profile here, but he’s financially tapped out after the primary round. Lewis is leading him $623k to $97k at the moment. Unlike a lot of districts, we have a good amount of polling information here already, with PPP showing Zinke up by 5, Gravis showing him up 12, and Vox Populi showing him up 7. That pretty much computes to where I thought the race was, a republican district but one in which the democrat is well funded and has a shot at victory if he runs a great campaign.
Rating – Lean R

WY-1 – Richard Grayson vs Cynthia Lummis-inc
Wyoming is one of the reddest states in the nation, one of the three states I consider part of the “Mormon Belt” along with Utah and Idaho. Cynthia Lummis will easily win another term.
Rating – Safe R

CO-1 – Diana Degette-inc vs Martin Walsh
Heading into Colorado now, we start in the Denver-based 1st district. Incumbent Diana Degette won’t have any trouble holding down this blue urban fortress.
Rating – Safe D

CO-2 – Jared Polis-inc vs Mark Leing
The Boulder-based 2nd district isn’t as solidly democratic as the 1st, but it is very blue at D+7. Jared Polis is one of a few openly gay members of Congress, which actually isn’t a bad fit for a liberal district like this. Republican George Leing will try his best to knock him off, but he’s got a mountain to climb.
Rating – Safe D

CO-3 – Abel Tapia vs Scott Tipton-inc
The 3rd district takes in most of western Colorado. This district was held by Blue Dog John Salazar prior to 2010, when current incumbent Scott Tipton won the seat. A pink district in terms of PVI, it’s winnable for democrats in a wave or with a great candidate, but I’m not convinced that Abel Tapia is that man for Team Blue. He’s got under 100k in the bank right now, so I’m not sure he’ll be able to put up a great fight here, and Tipton’s more of an establishment republican. He won’t likely hang himself.
Rating – Safe R

CO-4 – Vic Meyers vs Ken Buck
The 4th district takes in most of rural eastern Colorado. 2010 senate candidate Ken Buck, who narrowly lost to democrat Michael Bennet that year, is the republican candidate here. This is a very republican district, so I don’t think democrat Vic Meyers has much of a chance.
Rating – Safe R

CO-5 – Irv Halter vs Doug Lamborn-inc
The Colorado Springs-based 5th district is a very republican seat. Doug Lamborn wasn’t even facing a democratic candidate in 2012, but this is a different year, and this race is somewhat intriguing. The democrats have a very solid candidate in Air Force major general Irv Halter. In addition to his military pedigree, Halter is a solid fundraiser, having 319k in the bank as of Q2. Lamborn has just 115k, which is bizarre for an incumbent. I think the district is ultimately too red for Halter to win, but if Lamborn is thinking he doesn’t need to campaign, we need to keep an eye on this one.
Rating – Likely R

CO-6 – Andrew Romanoff vs Mike Coffman-inc
This might be the marquee house race of the whole country this year. Former Colorado House Speaker and 2010 senate candidate Andrew Romanoff is in the race for the democrats. Romanoff has put up over 2 million in fundraising, easily the strongest among any democratic challenger this year other than maybe Sean Eldridge. Incumbent Mike Coffman held on barely in 2012 despite Barack Obama winning the district by 5%, so he does have some decent political skill despite having a tendency to say things he shouldn’t. He’s got over 2 million in the bank as well, so this is going to be a battle involving dumpsters upon dumpsters of dollars. In the end, I’m going with Romanoff to pick it up for the democrats. He’s more likely to stay on an even keel and not say anything dumb during the campaign.
Rating – Toss Up/Tilt D (7th democratic pickup nationally, national swing D+4)

CO-7 – Ed Perlmutter-inc vs Don Ytterburg
The 7th district is a mostly suburban district in central Colorado. It used to be a swing district but has become democratic in recent years. Ed Perlmutter is a pretty strong incumbent, surviving even the 2010 republican wave. Republican Don Yetterburg is trying to knock out Perlmutter this year, but he’s got an uphill climb to deal with. He does have 102k in the bank to Perlmutter’s 843k, and the district isn’t solid blue in terms of PVI, so I could see this possibly becoming competitive in a wave situation, but it’s looking good for Team Blue right now.
Rating – Likely D

NM-1 – Michelle Grisham vs Mike Frese
This district covers most of central New Mexico. Incumbent Michelle Grisham won this open seat in 2012 and did so resoundingly. I don’t expect anything different this time as she is up against underfunded republican Mike Frese.
Rating – Safe D

NM-2 – Roxanne Lara vs Steve Pearce-inc
This pinkish district in southern New Mexico went democratic in the 2008 wave, but has been reliably republican outside of that aberration. Representative Steve Pearce has been pretty strong in terms of his ability to get re-elected here. That being said, he didn’t face much of a challenge in 2012, and this time he’s got a potential fight on his hands. Former Eddy County Commissioner Roxanne Lara is running for the democrats. She has a strong profile and has been fundraising like a maven, holding 712k on hand as of June. Pearce holds a very strong 1.46 million, but Lara’s amount is definitely competitive and will put this seat on the map, especially if Pearce falters or if Lara runs a great campaign.
Rating – Lean R

NM-3 – Ben Lujan-inc vs Jefferson Byrd
The northern 3rd district is the most democratic district in New Mexico. Republican Jefferson Byrd doesn’t have the resources to defeat incumbent Ben Lujan or even make this competitive.
Rating – Safe D

UT-1 – Donna McAleer vs Rob Bishop-inc
We head into Utah now, and we come into one of the most republican districts in the nation here. Incumbent Rob Bishop is safe.
Rating – Safe R

UT-2 – Luz Robles vs Chris Stewart
There was some intrigue on the republican side here as the nomination had to be decided via convention. It was ultimately won by Chris Stewart, which in a massively red district like this is tantamount to election.
Rating – Safe R

UT-3 – Brian Wannacott vs Jason Chaffetz-inc
The amazing part about these first three Utah districts is that there are actual democrats running in all three of them. You’d figure they’d be unopposed given how incredibly red they are PVI-wise.
Rating – Safe R

UT-4 – Doug Owens vs Mia Love
The 4th district is the most democratic district in Utah. This is the seat held by Jim Matheson, but he decided to hang it up this year, creating an open seat. His 2012 republican opponent, Mia Love, is running again for the GOP. This was considered by some to be a slam dunk pickup for the GOP, but amazingly, democrat Doug Owens is polling somewhat competitive with Love. In terms of fundraising Owens had just 210k to Love’s 873k as of June. I guess some folks in the 4th are turned off by Love for some reason. In either case, we have to keep an eye on this one even though right now I project Love to pick it up for the GOP.
Rating – Likely R (4th republican pickup nationally, national swing D+3)

ID-1 – Shirley Ringo vs Raul Labrador-inc
We head into Idaho now, and the first district covers the western half of the state. Democrats do have a genuine candidate here in state representative Shirley Ringo, and let’s not forget that democrat Walt Minnick did win this seat in 2008. That all being said, I don’t see a repeat of that happening this year.
Rating – Safe R

ID-2 – Richard Stallings vs Michael Simpson-inc
The 2nd district covers the eastern half of Idaho. It’s another solidly red district, and Mike Simpson won’t have any trouble against Some Dude Richard Stallings.
Rating – Safe R

NV-1 – Dina Titus-inc vs Annette Teijiero
We move now into Nevada, and we start in Las Vegas. This is the bluest seat in Nevada, and it’s one that Dina Titus won’t have any trouble hanging onto.
Rating – Safe D

NV-2 – Kristen Spees vs Mark Amodei-inc
The 2nd district covers most of northern Nevada. The democrats have started to make a dent into this formerly bright red district, mostly due to gains in Washoe County. However, the district still has a republican PVI and it is also ancestrally republican too. Mark Amodei shouldn’t have that much trouble against democrat Kristen Spees, who is unknown and underfunded.
Rating – Safe R

NV-3 – Erin Bilbray vs Joe Heck-inc
This district in Las Vegas’s southern suburbs is a true swing district, one that Obama won by 1% in 2012 over Mitt Romney. Joe Heck has been a surprisingly powerful incumbent since his initial election in 2010, and he’s got a powerful warchest of nearly 1.5 million. However, democrats are not letting him slide easily. Democrat Erin Bilbray is going after him this cycle, and she’s fundraised very well, holding about 500k as of June. Republicans have tried to claim that Bilbray is a carpetbagger, but those charges don’t seem to be going much of anywhere. I get the feeling that Heck will be difficult to beat, but the district is gettable for Team Blue and Bilbray is capable.
Rating – Lean R

NV-4 – Steven Horsford-inc vs Cresent Hardy
The 4th district is one that takes in much of Las Vegas’s northern suburbs as well as some rural territory. Democrat Steven Horsford is the incumbent here. On paper the republicans got a good candidate in state representative Cresent Hardy. The issue for him has been fundraising, as he has just 33k in the bank as of June. That’s not enough to run a credible campaign. The district is a little bit swingy, but at 54% Obama, a republican would have to run very strongly or hope for a massive wave to win. I’m not seeing either of those taking place at the moment.
Rating – Likely D

AZ-1 – Ann Kirkpatrick-inc vs Andy Tobin
We head into the last state in the Rocky Mountain region now, the great state of Arizona. The first district covers most of the north and northeast parts of the state. Incumbent Ann Kirkpatrick is on her 2nd run in Congress, having held this seat before 2010, getting washed out in the wave, but then coming back and winning in 2012. She is a pretty astute politician with connections to the district’s large Navajo population and she has a large warchest at 1.3 million as of June. The republican primary was a closely contested affair, won by state representative Andy Tobin. Tobin has a solid profile, and though financially he’s tapped out after the primary, I’m sure that he’ll be able to fundraise well down the stretch and run a credible campaign. In the end I feel that Kirkpatrick is a strong enough incumbent to hold this seat unless there is a wave, but we’ll see. This definitely is one to watch.
Rating – Toss Up/Tilt D

AZ-2 – Ron Barber-inc vs Martha McSally
The southeastern Arizona 2nd district is one of those seats that ended up surprisingly competitive on election night in 2012. Democrat Ron Barber was expected to coast, but he ended up winning by less than 1% against republican Martha McSally. Given that result and the fact that Romney beat Obama here by a slim margin, McSally decided to re-roll the dice this cycle. She’s got a huge warchest for a challenger at 1.12 and huge name recognition for a non-incumbent. Barber to his credit, has been gearing up for a rough fight this cycle and has over 1.5 million in the bank, so he’s not going to be caught napping like he nearly was last cycle. That being said, compared with his colleague Ann Kirkpatrick, I feel like Barber is a less astute and less tactically sound politician. I think she holds on but he doesn’t.
Rating – Toss Up/Tilt R (5th republican pickup nationally, national swing D+2)

AZ-3 – Raul Grijalva-inc vs Gabriela Mercer
The southwestern Arizona 3rd district is a blue district that gave Obama 61% of the vote in 2012. Raul Grijalva shouldn’t have any trouble holding onto his seat.
Rating – Safe D

AZ-4 – Mikel Weisser vs Paul Gosar-inc
The 4th district is a very republican seat, the most republican seat in Arizona as a matter of fact. Incumbent Paul Gosar won’t have any difficulty retaining his seat.
Rating – Safe R

AZ-5 – James Woods vs Matt Salmon-inc
The 5th district is another hugely republican bastion that takes in a bunch of suburbs and exurbs of Phoenix. Republican Matt Salmon should have an easy time against underfunded democrat James Woods.
Rating – Safe R

AZ-6 – John Williamson vs David Schweikert-inc
The 6th district is another exurban-type district surrounding Phoenix. It’s not quite as red as the 4th or the 5th, but it’s still hugely republican territory. David Schweikert shouldn’t have much trouble.
Rating – Safe R

AZ-7 – Ruben Gallego vs nobody
The Phoenix-based 7th district went uncontested by the republicans. Perhaps with this to blame, this was the site of one of the ugliest democratic primaries in recent memory, with former state Ruben Gallego and Maricopa County Supervisor Mary Rose Wilcox absolutely tearing each other limb from limb. In a more competitive district, such a primary might cost Team Blue a seat, but here it won’t alter the arithmetic any.
Rating – Safe D

AZ-8 – nobody vs Trent Franks
Democrats did not contest this district, so incumbent Trent Franks is going back to Congress.
Rating – Safe R

AZ-9 – Kyrsten Sinema-inc vs Wendy Rogers
I think back to election night 2012, and if somebody had asked me if an atheist lesbian would win a swing seat in Arizona, I would’ve been very skeptical. But the strange recipe of redistricting coupled with a recruiting fail by the GOP led to Kyrsten Sinema doing just that. Obama carried this seat by 4.5%, making it basically even in PVI. Needless to say given that, and given that Sinema is basically the kind of person that the GOP loves to hate, the republicans want this seat bad. Businesswoman Wendy Rogers took out former NFL quarterback Andrew Walter in the primary, and now has her sights set on Sinema. Rogers had $387k in the bank as of June but is likely tapped out after the primary, while Sinema has 1.6 million in the bank. I feel that fundraising won’t be as important here as most districts because you’re likely to see this district blanketed in outside spending, particularly from anti-LGBT and pro-LGBT organizations. This is a really difficult one to call. Right now I’m going to give Sinema the benefit of the doubt and say she holds the seat.
Rating – Toss Up/Tilt D

Bottom Line - The Central Plains and Rocky Mountains actually have quite a few interesting races, probably more than any other part of the country I've reviewed thus far. Unlike the other regions, I think there is good potential for both sides to gain seats here, and I do think you will see quite a few seats change hands on election night. As of now, I have IA-3, NE-2, and CO-6 changing from red to blue, and UT-4 and AZ-2 going from blue to red. The result is that the democrats gain a net of 1 seat in the Central Plains/Rocky Mountains mashup, and are now at a net of +2 seats nationally. There's just one region left to review now, and that's the Pacific Coast. That diary should come out sometime within the next week, so if you've been waiting on Washington, Oregon, California, Alaska, or Hawaii, you don't have to wait much longer. At the end of that diary the whole map will be revealed along with the ever popular House Equal Area Projection.

Poll

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What will be the net swing in the Central Plains/Rocky Mountains?

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What will be the net swing in the Central Plains/Rocky Mountains?

R+4 or worse

3 votes

R+3

3 votes

R+2

7 votes

R+1

2 votes

Even

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D+1

3 votes

D+2

8 votes

D+3

6 votes

D+4 or better

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StephenCLE's Baseline House Rankings - The Interior Southeast

StephenCLE

Community (This content is not subject to review by Daily Kos staff prior to publication.)

Tuesday August 05, 2014 · 2:44 PM PDT

2014/08/05 · 14:44

Hi DKE nation. Today we get to look over another big batch of House races. Fun. This 4th diary in my House Baseline rankings covers a region stretching from West Virginia to Texas. I call it the Interior Southeast, or any state that can be considered southern that doesn't touch the Atlantic Ocean. Think of it as Appalachia + Gulf Coast.

This is a pretty toxic region for democrats overall, consisting of the states of West Virginia, Kentucky, Tennessee, Alabama, Mississippi, Arkansas, Louisiana, and Texas. If you notice, Barack Obama did not win any of these states, and he got blown out in all of them. Naturally, one would expect that republicans would have this region on virtual lockdown, and they do, with 56 seats to the democrats' 19. Can the democrats close the gap this cycle? Let's take a look.

Before we start this diary on the Interior Southeast, I have some ratings changes within the Northeast and Coastal Southeast regions. These were regions I looked at several months back, and the lay of the land has changed a bit since then.

NY-1 – Toss Up/Tilt D to Lean D
NJ-2 – Lean R to Likely R
PA-7 – Likely R to Safe R
VA-2 – Toss Up/Tilt R to Lean R
NC-3 – Likely R to Safe R
SC-7 – Lean R to Safe R
FL-10 – Likely R to Safe R

WV-1 – Glen Gainer vs David McKinley-inc
The first district contains most of northern West Virginia. Incumbent David McKinley cruised to re-election in 2012 by 25%. On paper, the democrats got a very solid challenger in state auditor Glen Gainer. The issue for Gainer is that he has been poor on the fundraising front, holding just $188k in the bank to McKinley’s 1.47 million. That coupled with the fact that like the state as a whole, WV-1 is trending rightward at a very fast pace, tells me that this race won’t be all that close.
Rating – Safe R

WV-2 – Open seat race
The second district snakes across the center of the state, and is nationally speaking the most democratic district in the state as Barack Obama only lost to Mitt Romney by 22%. You have an interesting dichotomy of a district getting redder seemingly by the minute going up against parochialism. That second aspect is in play because of the fact that republican candidate Alex Mooney is from Maryland and has carpetbagged across state lines. That can’t play well in WV. Democratic candidate Nick Casey is the former WV Democratic Party chair, and is a strong candidate. He’s also beating Mooney in the fundraising race $872k to $353k. There are a lot of signs pointing in team Blue’s favor here, but ultimately I just think the district is too red, and that not enough WV voters will be turned off by Mooney’s carpetbagging to avoid voting republican. I could be wrong though.
Rating – Lean R

WV-3 – Nick Rahall-inc vs Evan Jenkins
With Jim Matheson retiring this cycle, Nick Rahall stands tall as the democrat running for re-election in the reddest district held by a democrat in the nation. Rahall wasn’t heavily targeted in 2012, but was only able to win by a weak 8%. This time around, he has to deal with republican state senator Evan Jenkins, a man who appears to have a very solid profile but with one potential major flaw. That flaw is that he was a democrat until last year when he flipped parties in order to run here. It remains to be seen whether turnout among R’s will stay strong. He’s done well in fundraising, garnering $689k in the bank compared to Rahall’s 1.12 million. This district voted for Mitt Romney by almost 35% in 2012, so it’s little secret what this district’s congressional future is. Will it flip this year? Hard to say right now, but if I had to guess, I think a paper bag with an R by its name could beat Rahall in this district.
Rating – Toss Up/Tilt R (3rd republican pickup nationally, regional swing R+1, national swing Even)

KY-1 – Charles Hatchett vs Ed Whitfield-inc
We move into the Bluegrass State now, and we start in western Kentucky. The first district, like much of the state, is very republican at the national level. Ed Whitfield should be fine against underfunded democrat Charles Hatchett.
Rating – Safe R

KY-2 – Ron Leach vs Brett Guthrie-inc
The 2nd district takes in much of western and central Kentucky. It’s hard to believe that as recently as 2008 this seat was competitive. This cycle, Brett Guthrie will have it easy against democrat Ron Leach.
Rating – Safe R

KY-3 – John Yarmuth-inc vs Michael McFarlane
The Louisville-based 3rd district was Republican held as recently as 2006, which is actually quite surprising when you think about it. At D+5, it’s not as massively blue as many other urban districts, but democrat John Yarmuth has had a strong hold on it since his initial election. Republican Michael McFarlane will take his best shot, but he’s underfunded and on territory that is only getting bluer.
Rating – Safe D

KY-4 – Peter Newberry vs Thomas Massie-inc
The Northern Kentucky 4th district is a mashup of cherry red Cincinnati suburbs and blood red rural areas. Thomas Massie won’t have any trouble holding on here.
Rating – Safe R

KY-5 – Kenneth Stepp vs Hal Rogers-inc
It wasn’t all that long ago that Daniel Mongiardo represented this area in eastern Kentucky, but it’s gone so far rightward since then that I’m not even sure Dr. Dan would recognize the place nowadays. Kenneth Stepp got 22% against Hal Rogers in 2012, somehow I don’t think he’ll even get that this time.
Rating – Safe R

KY-6 – Elizabeth Jensen vs Andy Barr-inc
One of the relative shocks of election night 2012 was the fact that Andy Barr, who lost to incumbent Ben Chandler by 650 votes in 2010, was able to win the 2012 rematch. Now the incumbent, Barr was probably thinking he could sit pretty in this R+8 district. The democrats didn’t see it that way, and came up with a decent candidate in nonprofit director Elizabeth Jensen. Jensen hasn’t been tearing it up in terms of fundraising, but does have $234k in the bank and has already used a bunch of her cash going after Barr and other republicans for trying to undermine Kentucky Kinect, the successful state health care exchange. Ultimately I’m not certain that Jensen will have the resources to compete on this relatively red territory, but she has the look and feel of a solid candidate, so I’ll continue to watch.
Rating – Likely R

TN-1 – nobody vs Phil Roe-inc
No democrat decided to run in the massively red 1st district in east Tennessee, so Phil Roe is safe.
Rating – Safe R

TN-2 – Bob Scott vs John Duncan-inc
East Tennessee has been republican since the Civil War, but you’d think the Knoxville-based 2nd district wouldn’t be so blood red. Even now I think that someday it’ll have to start turning blue like a lot of urban-based districts, but it appears that day is a long time coming.
Rating – Safe R

TN-3 – Mary Headrick vs Charles Fleischmann-inc
The 3rd district is the site of a major primary battle, pitting incumbent Charles Fleischmann against Weston Wamp, the son of former 3rd district rep Zach Wamp. 2012 democratic candidate Mary Headrick is waiting on the winner, but ultimately this territory is too red for any democrat to win.
Rating – Safe R

TN-4 – Lenda Sherell vs ???
The 4th district is also the site of a contested primary. Incumbent Scott Desjarlais is one of the most hated incumbents in the House because of a scandal involving him prescribing drugs and having sexual relationships with patients during his time in medicine prior to being elected. This is a real clown car primary, with no less than 7 republicans aiming to beat Desjarlais, the most well known of whom is state senator Jim Tracy. The democratic candidate is Lenda Sherell, who doesn’t appear to have much background in politics but did have over 100k in the bank as of April…DKE isn’t tracking this race so I don’t have the July number. I have to believe that if Desjarlais gets through the primary, he’s going to be wounded, and the money from national democrats will start to flow into the district once again. That being said, picking up this district will be very tough.
Rating – Likely R

TN-5 – Jim Cooper-inc vs ???
I feel that democrats should be thankful that republicans decided not to chop this district up into pieces. As it stands, this Nashville-based district is about D+5, and is a pretty easy hold for incumbent Jim Cooper. Four republicans are running in the primary for a shot at him, but none of them have the resources or profile to make it a race.
Rating – Safe D

TN-6 – Amos Powers vs Diane Black-inc
This is a haven of republican strength in central Tennessee. Incumbent Diane Black should make quick work of underfunded democrat Amos Powers.
Rating – Safe R

TN-7 - ??? vs Marsha Blackburn-inc
Marsha Blackburn is one of the more powerful incumbents in the House, and she sits in a republican stronghold in west-central Tennessee. Two democrats are running for the right to get plastered by her in November.
Rating – Safe R

TN-8 - ??? vs Stephen Fincher-inc
It’s really hard to believe that democrats held this seat as recently as 2009…this district gave nearly 2/3 of its vote to Mitt Romney over Barack Obama. There are contested primaries on both sides here, but I can’t see incumbent Stephen Fincher being troubled here.
Rating – Safe R

TN-9 – Steve Cohen-inc vs Charlotte Bergman
One representative that always seems to draw contested primaries is Steve Cohen, who represents the Memphis-based 9th district. Most of the folks challenging him seem to do so because he is white, representing a black-majority district. It’s interesting to watch, but ultimately does nothing as far as control of the seat goes. No republican will likely ever win here, not for a long, long time.
Rating – Safe D

AL-1 – Burton LaFlore vs Bradley Byrne-inc
We move now into Alabama, and the 1st district takes in most of southwest AL. At just 37% Obama, it is actually the 2nd most democratic district in the state by PVI. Yeah. That being said, it’s very red, and incumbent Bradley Byrne will be easily re-elected.
Rating –Safe R

AL-2 – Erick Wright vs Martha Roby-inc
The southeastern AL 2nd district, believe it or not, had a democratic representative as recently as 2010, and might still today were it not for that massive red wave. As it stands now though, incumbent Martha Roby doesn’t have much to worry about. Democrat Erick Wright will give it his best, but he’s no Bobby Bright, that’s for sure.
Rating – Safe R

AL-3 – Jesse Smith vs Mike Rogers-inc
The 3rd district takes in much of eastern Alabama. Mike Rogers should hold this red district pretty easily, and when he does he’ll actually be the most senior member of Congress with that name, since the Mike Rogers of MI-8 is retiring.
Rating – Safe R

AL-4 – nobody vs Robert Aderholt-inc
In one of the most republican districts in the nation, no democrat stepped forward to take on incumbent Robert Aderholt. He’s going back to Congress.
Rating – Safe R

AL-5 – nobody vs Mo Brooks-inc
In the Huntsville-based 5th district, incumbent Mo Brooks has only minor party opposition. He’s going back to Congress as well.
Rating – Safe R

AL-6 – Avery Vise vs Gary Palmer
The 6th district is one of the most republican districts in the nation. Naturally, when Spencer Bauchus retired, many republicans jumped at the chance to take the open seat. The primary runoff was won by Gary Palmer, who knocked off state representative Paul Demarco to reach the general, where democrat Avery Vise bravely decided to jump in. Even I wouldn’t want his gig.
Rating – Safe R

AL-7 – Terri Sewell-inc vs nobody
The lone democratic district in the state, the 7th takes in most of Birmingham and Tuscaloosa as well as a lot of the “black belt”. No republican stepped forward to face incumbent Terri Sewell, so she’s good.
Rating – Safe D

MS-1 – Ron Dickey vs Alan Nunnelee-inc
The first district takes in much of northern Mississippi. Alan Nunnelee is the republican incumbent, and in this red bastion he shouldn’t have too much trouble. Democrat Ron Dickey has a very large uphill to summit here.
Rating – Safe R

MS-2 – Bennie Thompson-inc vs nobody
Incumbent Bennie Thompson has only minor party opposition to deal with, as no republican went after his seat. He’s heading back to Congress.
Rating – Safe D

MS-3 – Doug Magee vs Greg Harper-inc
The third district takes in much of the central part of the state. Greg Harper faces an underfunded democratic challenger in this ruby red district, so he should be fine.
Rating – Safe R

MS-4 – Matt Moore vs Steven Palazzo-inc
The final seat east of the Mississippi River, the 4th is the most republican seat in the state. Steven Palazzo actually had to fight off a brisk primary challenge from former representative Gene Taylor, but now that he has done so he will cruise to re-election.
Rating – Safe R

AR-1 – Jackie McPherson vs Rick Crawford-inc
The first district, like much of Arkansas, used to be a democratic district, but it has moved at seeming light speed to the right, and gave Barack Obama just 36% of the vote in 2012. That being said, this is an area where local dems can and often do outperform national dems. Team Blue got a pretty decent candidate here in Heber Springs mayor Jackie McPherson. She brings bonafide political skill to the contest, even though her fundraising hasn’t been great...she has just $107k in the bank. Surprisingly, incumbent Rick Crawford only holds $429k at the moment, which is pretty bad for a sitting US rep. Without Barack Obama on the ticket, I feel that McPherson might give Crawford a hard time if she runs a solid campaign, but winning would be very, very difficult under even the best of circumstances.
Rating – Likely R

AR-2 – Pat Hays vs French Hill-inc
The Little Rock-based 2nd is in terms of PVI the most democratic district in Arkansas. This cycle, it looks like we have a real battle on our hands too. The democrats landed a great candidate in Patrick Hays, a man who was formerly mayor of North Little Rock and a former state representative. Incumbent French Hill was occupied by a contested primary, and as a result is actually trailing his challenger in cash on hand, $621k to $429k. That’s a scary place for any incumbent to be in. Hill can at least bank on the fact that the district is about R+8 in PVI, but partisan value index might be misleading in a state that is ancestrally democratic and doesn’t have its boogeyman on the ticket this year. Call me crazy, but I think both Mark Pryor and Mike Ross will carry this district upballot in November, and I think that gives Hays that last little boost he needs to pick it up for the democrats.
Rating – Toss Up/Tilt D (4th democratic pickup nationally, region swing Even, national swing D+1)

AR-3 – nobody vs Steve Womack-inc
The 3rd district is massively republican, so it’s not too surprising that nobody stepped forward to face incumbent republican Steve Womack. He’s good for another term.
Rating – Safe R

AR-4 – James Lee Witt vs Bruce Westerman
The 4th district was democratic until Mike Ross decided to cowardly abandon ship right after the legislature had drawn the seat specifically for him. Republican incumbent Tom Cotton is running for governor, so the seat is open. In terms of political background this contest has lots of it. The republicans got themselves a very solid candidate in state house majority leader Bruce Westerman. The democrats landed former FEMA director James Lee Witt. The surprising part about this is that there isn’t a ton of money on either side…Witt leads Westerman in the fundraising race by $396k to $179k. Recent polling is showing Westerman ahead by quite a bit, possibly due to name recognition advantage. Without much local knowledge of the rural south, I’ll go by polling for now but this is still one to watch.
Rating – Likely R

LA-1 – nobody vs Steve Scalise-inc
We head into Louisiana now, and this could be the most boring state in the nation for House races. We start in the 1st, which sits north of Lake Ponchartrain for the most part. It’s a super-duper red seat, and no democrat stepped forth to challenge incumbent Steve Scalise. He’s going back to Congress.
Rating – Safe R

LA-2 – Cedric Richmond-inc vs nobody
The New Orleans-based 2nd district is represented by democrat Cedric Richmond. No republican felt like challenging him, so he’s safe.
Rating – Safe D

LA-3 – nobody vs Charles Boustany-inc
No democrat stepped up to face Charles Boustany, so he’s got another term for sure.
Rating – Safe R

LA-4 – nobody vs John Fleming-inc
No democrat decided it was worth it to challenge republican John Fleming. Are you seeing a trend here yet?
Rating – Safe R

LA-5 - ??? vs ???
Well, well, well, we finally have a competitive contest. This one is a bizarre one. Incumbent Vance McAllister was caught on camera first-basing it with a nice looking young lady that well, wasn’t his wife. That caused a lot of people in this stretch of rural America to flip out, and a whole bunch of republicans jumped into the jungle primary with the intention of taking him out. Of course, the sheer number of folks in the primary might turn this into a clown car scenario where McAllister makes it through. Some of the R names include former Grant County…err…Parish DA Ed Tarpley, and Zach Dasher, nephew of Duck Dynasty’s Phil Robertson. The democrats actually have a pretty good candidate in Monroe mayor Jamie Mayo. Given that there is 1 dem and 5 repubs in the primary, Mayo should advance out of the jungle primary, but for her to pull out a win in the general is a lot to ask in this R+13 district.
Rating – Safe R

LA-6 – Open seat race
This race is even more bananas than the one in the 5th. Bill Cassidy is retiring, so the seat is open. The republicans have 9 candidates in the jungle primary. Some of the key names are state senator Dan Claitor, state representative Lenar Whitney, Baton Rouge councilman Ryan Heck, and US attorney Cassie Fielder. The democrats have a pretty good get in Edwin Edwards, a former governor of Louisiana. Edwards will definitely advance to the general election, but I can’t see him winning a general election in a 32% Obama district.
Rating – Safe R

TX-1 – Shirley McKeller vs Louie Gohmert-inc
We now head into the 2nd largest state in the nation, the Lone Star State. The first district is a republican bastion, and Louie Gohmert should do very well to retain his seat against underfunded democrat Shirley McKeller.
Rating – Safe R

TX-2 – Niko Letsos vs Ted Poe-inc
The 2nd district is also very republican in nature. Incumbent Ted Poe shouldn’t have any issue with holding onto his seat.
Rating – Safe R

TX-3 – nobody vs Sam Johnson-inc
No democrat stepped forth to challenge incumbent Sam Johnson here, so he’s safe.
Rating – Safe R

TX-4 – nobody vs John Ratcliffe
This district in east Texas saw a really big surprise in the primary round, as a relative political unknown in John Ratcliffe placed 2nd in the republican primary, holding incumbent Ralph Hall under 50% and forcing a runoff, where Ratcliffe beat Hall. Were this a more even district, democrats would have a chance to pick it up, but given that this is one of the most republican seats in the nation…not gonna happen. There’s also the matter of the democrats not fielding a candidate, so…
Rating – Safe R

TX-5 – nobody vs Jeb Hensarling-inc
This district is also unopposed by the democrats. Incumbent Jeb Hensarling is a lock to return.
Rating – Safe R

TX-6 – David Cozad vs Joe Barton-inc
The 6th district is one in which Obama actually cracked 40%, which is better than a lot of districts outside of urban areas in Texas. That being said, democrat David Cozad doesn’t have the profile or the resources to make this competitive.
Rating – Safe R

TX-7 – James Cargas vs John Culberson-inc
The 7th district is another where the democrats are in the race, but they won’t finish first. Incumbent John Culberson should win in a walk over underfunded democrat James Cargas.
Rating – Safe R

TX-8 – nobody vs Kevin Brady-inc
Normally I get bent out of shape over democrats not contesting seats, but given that Obama got just 22% of the vote in this district, I definitely understand this one.
Rating – Safe R

TX-9 – Al Green-inc vs nobody
The 9th is the first urban district we’ve come to, as it takes in parts of Houston. Republicans are not contesting this 78% Obama district, so Al Green is going back to Congress.
Rating – Safe D

TX-10 – Tawana Walter vs Mike McCall-inc
The 10th district is one that used to be more swingy, but the republicans shored it up considerably during redistricting. Mike McCall shouldn’t have much trouble holding onto it this November.
Rating – Safe R

TX-11 – nobody vs Mike Conaway-inc
We head now into the Texas panhandle, which is the single most republican part of the United States. Not surprisingly, the democrats did not field a candidate against incumbent Mike Conaway, and who can blame them? Obama didn’t even get 20% here.
Rating – Safe R

TX-12 – Mark Greene vs Kay Granger-inc
If I remember my district numbers correctly, this district takes in mostly exurbs in the D/FW area. It gave Mitt Romney 67% of the vote and democrat Mark Greene has little resources, so I don’t see much trouble ahead for incumbent Kay Granger.
Rating – Safe R

TX-13 – Mike Minter vs Mac Thornberry-inc
This district in the northern Texas panhandle is the single most republican district in the nation at R+33. The biggest surprise here is that unlike a bunch of other districts, the democrats actually have a candidate here. Godspeed Mike Minter, maybe you can crack 20%, because Obama sure didn’t.
Rating – Safe R

TX-14 – Donald Brown vs Randy Weber-inc
Another district where Obama didn’t crack 40% and the democrat has no money. Yawn. This region is BORING. Next.
Rating – Safe R

TX-15 – Reuben Hinojosa-inc vs Eddie Zamora
This is the first of the so-called “fajita strips” districts in south Texas. As a Hispanic majority seat, it’s fairly democratic at D+6. Republican Eddie Zamora is running, but he doesn’t have much of any cash or political acumen. Incumbent Reuben Hinojosa should be good to go.
Rating – Safe D

TX-16 – Beto O’Rourke-inc vs nobody
The El Paso-based 16th saw one of the biggest primary surprises last cycle when Beto O’Rourke took out Silvestre Reyes. As it stands now, O’Rourke isn’t facing any republican opposition this November, so he’s headed back to Congress.
Rating – Safe D

TX-17 – Nick Haynes vs Bill Flores-inc
The 17th district takes in a large chunk of central Texas. This red swath of land was actually represented for a very long time by democrat Chet Edwards. Incumbent Bill Flores should have an easy time of it this election cycle though, as democratic challenger Nick Haynes is underfunded and on very red turf.
Rating – Safe R

TX-18 – Sheila Jackson-Lee-inc vs Sean Seibert
I don’t get the district numbers in Texas honestly, they just jump around. This Houston-based district is hugely democratic, and Sheila Jackson-Lee will easily win re-election.
Rating – Safe D

TX-19 – Neal Marchbanks vs Randy Neugebauer-inc
This is another district in which Obama only took about a quarter of the 2-party vote. With that going on, there’s really no plausible scenario in which the democrat can win.
Rating – Safe R

TX-20 – Joaquin Castro-inc vs nobody
The San Antonio-based 20th district is democratic, but not as much as most urban districts. Romney only lost here by 20%, so it’s about D+8. But despite that, republicans did not even field a candidate.
Rating – Safe D

TX-21 – nobody vs Lamar Smith-inc
Another district, another seat not contested by the opposition party. What else is new?
Rating – Safe R

TX-22 – Frank Briscoe vs Pete Olsen-inc
This district is notable for a couple of reasons, one in that it was Tom Delay’s old seat, which he ended up losing via scandal to democrat Nick Lampson back in 2006. But more recently, it was the home district of crazed LaRouchie Kesha Rogers, who ran unsuccessfully here twice before trying to get the Dem nod for Senate this time around. Thank goodness for our side she lost. Oh, this year’s congressional race? Nothing interesting to see here.
Rating – Safe R

TX-23 – Pete Gallego-inc vs Will Hurd
Finally, finally, we come to a competitive district. Pete Gallego won this seat from Quico Canseco in 2012 by a 5% margin. That was a strong performance considering Barack Obama lost here by 3% against Mitt Romney. His republican opponent, Will Hurd, had to deal with Canseco in a rather brutal primary that ended up going to a runoff. Perhaps as a result of that, Hurd’s bank account is somewhat cleared out, as he has just $150k in the bank, although Gallego’s $814k isn’t the most impressive for a dem incumbent sitting in a Romney district. I get the general feeling that Gallego is a pretty astute politician, but I am worried about potential dropoff in Hispanic turnout in a midterm race. Still, given Gallego’s 2012 performance and the current money situation, I have to conclude that Gallego is favored right now
Rating – Lean D

TX-24 – Patrick McGearty vs Kenny Marchant-inc
This D/FW-based district is filled with lot of ruby red republican voters. It’s more toward the state median seeing as Romney only got 60% here, but democrat Patrick McGearty is overmatched nevertheless.
Rating – Safe R

TX-25 – Marco Montoya vs Roger Williams-inc
The 25th district used to cover most of Austin, but it was converted into a republican district in redistricting. Incumbent Roger Williams shouldn’t have too much trouble here in this R+13 seat.
Rating – Safe R

TX-26 – nobody vs Michael Burgess-inc
There’s no democrat running in the 26th district either. Obama only got 30% here so I don’t really blame Team Blue for leaving this one alone.
Rating – Safe R

TX-27 – Wesley Reed vs Blake Farenthold-inc
The 27th is a very republican district, about R+13 in PVI. It’s too bad it isn’t more even because then I would say this is a decent pickup opportunity. The republican incumbent Blake Farenthold, is a pretty weak incumbent who underperformed Mitt Romney by quite a bit in 2012. Also, he only has $419k in the bank, a weak sum for an incumbent. The democratic candidate also seems quite capable. Wesley Reed is a former Marine lieutenant, and has $114k in the bank, a surprisingly large total for a district considered safe. I really want to put this race into the competitive zone, but because of PVI, I can’t.
Rating – Safe R

TX-28 – Henry Cuellar-inc vs nobody
The 28th is another of the so-called “fajita strips” in south Texas. At just 60% Obama, you would figure the republicans would at least put up a candidate, but they failed to do so. Incredible how many uncontested districts there are in Texas this cycle.
Rating – Safe D

TX-29 – Gene Green-inc vs nobody
Another uncontested district? This is unbelievable.
Rating – Safe D

TX-30 – Eddie Bernice Johnson-inc vs nobody
This district centered on Dallas is also uncontested. There’s got to be some sort of non-aggression pact between the parties going on here, because this is ridiculous all these uncontested seats.
Rating – Safe D

TX-31 – Louie Minor vs John Carter-inc
The 31st is another district that Romney carried by roughly 20 points, which seems to be a benchmark in a lot of these Texas districts. Incumbent John Carter is pretty much a lock here against underfunded democrat Louie Minor
Rating – Safe R

TX-32 – Frank Perez vs Pete Sessions-inc
The 32nd district is one of the less red republican districts in the state, possibly because it takes in parts of Dallas County as well as Denton and Tarrant. The seat might one day become competitive, but for now, republican Pete Sessions has nothing to worry about, as democrat Frank Perez won’t beat him.
Rating – Safe R

TX-33 – Mark Veasey-inc vs nobody
This is one of the new districts from the 2012 redistricting, and it includes democratic parts of the Dallas/Ft Worth area. Republicans aren’t putting forth a candidate, so Mark Veasey is safe.
Rating – Safe D

TX-34 – Filemon Vela-inc vs Larry Smith
This is another fajita strip district in South Texas. Incumbent Filemon Vela should have an easy time here, because nothing screams “white republican guy” more than a candidate named Larry Smith…not to mention the fact that Obama got 63% here.
Rating – Safe D

TX-35 – Lloyd Doggett-inc vs Susan Vargaiz
This seat stretches from Austin to San Antonio, and is very, very democratic. Lloyd Doggett won’t have any trouble against underfunded republican Susan Vargaiz.
Rating – Safe D

TX-36 – Michael Cole vs Brian Babin
This final Texas district was Steve Stockman’s seat, which he vacated to run for the Senate unsuccessfully. In the end, we had a ridiculously huge republican primary, which led to a runoff where Brian Babin knocked off Ben Streusand. Democrat Michael Cole is in the race too, but in this district where Obama was creamed by Romney by a 3-to-1 margin, he has no chance.
Rating – Safe R

At the end of the day, we've got 2 seats changing hands in this region. I've got WV-3 going from blue to red, and AR-2 going from red to blue. That means that for the 2nd straight region, I don't see any net swing in the overall balance of power. That disappoints me really because that's boring, but I have to call it like I see it.

We have 3 regions left to go now...the Central Plains and the Rocky Mountains are up next in a combination for Diary 5, and then the Pacific Coast will close it out in Diary 6.

Poll

40 votes Show Results

What will be the net swing in seats in the Interior Southeast Region?

40 votes Vote Now!

What will be the net swing in seats in the Interior Southeast Region?

R+2 or worse

11 votes

R+1

11 votes

Even

14 votes

D+1

4 votes

D+2

0 votes

D+3

0 votes

D+4 or better

0 votes

StephenCLE's Baseline House Rankings - The Great Lakes

StephenCLE

Community (This content is not subject to review by Daily Kos staff prior to publication.)

Wednesday July 30, 2014 · 1:32 PM PDT

2014/07/30 · 13:32

Hello DKE'ers, and welcome once again to StephenCLE's House Rankings. It's been a long time since our last installment, about two months, but the time has come to get back to business. In this diary, I continue my series on the House of Representatives. Having already gone through the Northeast, Mid-Atlantic, and Coastal Southeast regions, today we turn our attentions to the Great Lakes. This region has been for some time one of the swing regions of the country in presidential elections, and it does feature some interesting House contests as well.

Recapping our analysis so far:

Northeast (ME, NH, VT, MA, RI, CT, NY) - Democrats 43 seats, Republicans 5 seats, Dems pick up NY-11 & NY-19, Reps pick up NY-21, swing D+1
Mid-Atlantic (PA, NJ, MD, DE) - Democrats 20 seats, Republicans 19 seats, Dems pick up NJ-3, Reps pick up no seats, swing D+1
Coastal Southeast (VA, NC, SC, GA, FL) - Democrats 22 seats, Republicans 49 seats
Dems pick up no seats, Reps pick up NC-7, swing R+1
Total swing through 3 regions - D+1

OH-1 – Fred Kundrata vs Steve Chabot-inc
The Cincinnati-based 1st district contains part of Cincinnati and all of blood red Warren County. Steve Chabot is the representative here, and he should win easily under underfunded republican-turned-democrat Fred Kundrata
Rating – Safe R

OH-2 – Marek Tyszkiewicz vs Brad Wenstrup-inc
The 2nd district takes in the rest of Cincinnati and some of the river counties to the east. Brad Wenstrup is the republican incumbent. He too should be back in Congress next cycle.
Rating – Safe R

OH-3 – Joyce Beatty-inc vs John Adams
The 3rd district covers most of Columbus. Joyce Beatty is the democratic incumbent, and in this blue island surrounded by red territory, she has nothing to worry about.
Rating – Safe D

OH-4 – Janet Garrett vs Jim Jordan-inc
The 4th district snakes from the rural west up toward north central Ohio. At R+7 it’s on the fringe of what a democrat could win in a wave year. Incumbent Jim Jordan looked to be uncontested in this district, but democrat Janet Garrett decided to wage a write-in candidacy in the primary and garnered enough votes to qualify for the ballot. That being said, her chances of winning are slim to none.
Rating – Safe R

OH-5 – Robert Fry vs Bob Latta-inc
The 5th district takes in much of rural northwest Ohio. It’s an area that is ancestrally republican and pretty red in terms of PVI as well. Incumbent Bob Latta should be fine.
Rating – Safe R

OH-6 – Jennifer Garrison vs Bill Johnson-inc
The 6th is Ted Strickland’s old district, taking in much of southeast Ohio. This is the first somewhat competitive district in the Buckeye State. Incumbent Bill Johnson has been in tough battles the last 2 election cycles, and this cycle he drew a challenge from state representative Jennifer Garrison. Garrison isn’t widely beloved in democratic circles due to her moderate to conservative social views, but she is a very good fit policy wise for economically liberal/socially conservative southeast Ohio. The issue for Garrison right now is money, she has $231k in the bank, but that pales to Johnson’s 1.2 million. The district is ancestrally democratic but is now very red in terms of PVI and trending rightward. In the end I think Garrison will put up a decent fight but Johnson is very likely to prevail.
Rating – Likely R

OH-7 – nobody vs Bob Gibbs-inc
Incumbent Bob Gibbs did not draw a democratic challenger this cycle, so he’s going back to Congress.
Rating – Safe R

OH-8 – Tom Poetter vs John Boehner-inc
This is the speaker’s district, a massively red area between the Cincinnati suburbs and rural west Ohio. Democrat Tom Poetter is running against the Tan Man. Godspeed sir.
Rating – Safe R

OH-9 – Marcy Kaptur-inc vs Richard May
This district snakes along Lake Erie from Toledo to Cleveland. This was the place where Dennis Kucinich saw his congressional career come to an end against current incumbent Marcy Kaptur. She’ll have this seat as long as she wants it.
Rating – Safe D

OH-10 – Robert Klepinger vs Mike Turner-inc
The 10th district is centered on Dayton. Incumbent Mike Turner is very popular there, which makes this a non-contest. The 10th should theoretically be a district worth contesting, as Barack Obama won it in 2008 and narrowly lost it in 2012. Democrat Robert Klepinger will try, but he doesn’t have much of a shot against the powerful Turner.
Rating – Safe R

OH-11 – Marcia Fudge-inc vs Mark Zetzer
The 11th district goes from Cleveland to Akron, and is one of the most democratic districts in the nation. Marcia Fudge won’t have any trouble making it back to Congress.
Rating – Safe D

OH-12 – David Tibbs vs Patrick Tiberi-inc
The 12th district is a very red swath of land in central Ohio north of Columbus. Patrick Tiberi is the republican incumbent, and he should win easily over Some Dude candidate David Tibbs.
Rating – Safe R

OH-13 – Tim Ryan-inc vs nobody
Democrat Tim Ryan did not draw a challenger this cycle, so he’s going back to Congress.
Rating – Safe D

OH-14 – Michael Wager vs David Joyce-inc
This is probably the most competitive race in Ohio this cycle. David Joyce is a freshman incumbent for the GOP. The district covers the northeast corner of the state, and is marginally republican in PVI. Mitt Romney triumphed barely over Barack Obama here in 2012. Democrat Michael Wager has stepped forward to run against Joyce. His overall profile is perhaps not quite as strong is Jennifer Garrison’s in OH-6, but Wager has fundraised fairly well, and holds $526k in the bank compared to Joyce’s 1.02 million. That gap actually got smaller in Q2 as Joyce lost about 150k in cash on hand. Given the PVI and given the money situation, if Wager puts together a solid campaign in the fall this district could well be in play. I give Joyce the edge for now, but this definitely merits watching.
Rating – Lean R

OH-15 – Richard Wharton vs Steve Stivers-inc
The 15th district is another oddly-shaped one, stretching from central Ohio to the southeast. It’s actually not as republican as you might think since the mapmakers threw liberal Athens into the mix, but republican Steve Stivers is a powerful incumbent. Democrat Richard Wharton doesn’t have the resources needed to beat him.
Rating – Safe R

OH-16 – Pete Crossland vs Jim Renacci-inc
We finish Ohio in my home district, which takes in a lot of suburbs of Cleveland and Akron. Republican Jim Renacci is a strong incumbent, and democrat Pete Crossland doesn’t have the profile or resources of the woman Renacci beat last cycle, former representative Betty Sutton. Renacci should win easily.
Rating – Safe R

MI-1 – Jerry Cannon vs Dan Benishek-inc
We enter Michigan now, and our first stop is in the north of the state. The first district has been the Bloody First of late, with massively close races in each of the last two cycles. Incumbent republican Dan Benishek has been able to barely cling to his seat, winning by 1% in 2012. This is a district that is trending republican, and that trend probably saved him last time around. His democratic opponent this cycle is former army general and Kalkaska County Sheriff Jerry Cannon. Cannon has a very strong profile and has fundraised well, as he has $373k in the bank to Benishek’s $942k. What I can’t seem to figure out is whether this district failed to flip in 2012 because of Barack Obama’s unpopularity here, or Romney’s strong performance is indicative of a bigger trend toward the GOP. If it’s the former, Cannon might win. Right now though I have to give Benishek the edge.
Rating – Lean R

MI-2 – Dean Vanderstelt vs Bill Huizenga-inc
The 2nd district is the most republican in Michigan, taking in much of the west coast of Lake Michigan. Bill Huizenga should triumph easily over democrat Dean Vanderstelt.
Rating – Safe R

MI-3 – Bob Goodrich vs Justin Amash-inc
The 3rd district is centered on Grand Rapids. Justin Amash has always been a somewhat unpopular figure in the GOP, mostly for his tea party views and no votes from the right on many pieces of legislation. This district got slightly bluer in redistricting, so you’d think that democrats would try to improve on their 8% loss here last cycle. Unfortunately, Some Dude candidate Bob Goodrich was the best they could scrape up. I’m not seeing how that is enough to beat the well-funded Amash.
Rating – Safe R

MI-4 – Open seat race
The 4th district covers much of central Michigan. With Dave Camp’s retirement the seat is open. Michigan, unlike the other states in the Great Lakes region, hasn’t had their primary yet, so the republican field is divided between businessman Paul Mitchell and state senator John Moolenar. At this point it appears that Mitchell will probably win the primary, which is a bit of a surprise. The democratic candidate in the race is a Some Dude by the name of Jeff Holmes. That’s a bit of a recruiting fail, and tells me that the republicans should hold the seat.
Rating – Safe R

MI-5 – Dan Kildee-inc vs ???
The 5th district takes in the democratic bastions of Flint, Saginaw, and Bay City. Dan Kildee has a pair of republicans dueling it out in the primary for the right to face him, but he should have no trouble retaining his seat.
Rating – Safe D

MI-6 – Paul Clements vs Fred Upton-inc
The 6th district is a closely contested one nationally with a slightly republican PVI. Romney beat Obama here by 1% in 2012. Republican incumbent Fred Upton is relatively entrenched but isn’t used to having serious challenges thrown his way. Democratic candidate Paul Clements, a professor, is locking to take down Upton this cycle. I don’t know that being a professor gives one a good profile for federal office, but Clements does have some good money at $354k in the bank. I think this is somewhat of a long shot honestly, but because of the relatively even PVI I feel I must put it into the competitive zone.
Rating – Likely R

MI-7 – Pam Byrnes vs Tim Walberg-inc
The 7th district takes up much of south central Michigan. Incumbent Tim Walberg got off relatively easy in 2012 without much of a challenge, but yet he only garnered 53% of the vote. As a tea party extremist, Walberg isn’t all that popular within the district, and it’s one that Mitt Romney only won by 3% in 2012, so in terms of PVI it is gettable for democrats. The democratic candidate this cycle is Pam Byrnes. Byrnes seems to have a decent profile for the district and has been fundraising very well, holding $609k in the bank to Walberg’s 1.06 million. I see this being a really hot contest due to Walberg being a weak and unpopular incumbent. If Byrnes runs a great campaign I honestly think she will win, but right now I give Walberg the slightest of edges.
Rating – Toss Up/Tilt R

MI-8 – Open seat race
The 8th district is an open seat contest, and here you have all the makings of a very competitive race. Both of the primaries are contested by more than 2 candidates. Former Michigan house speaker Mike Bishop seems the most likely to emerge on the republican side, while Ingham County treasurer Eric Schertzing seems the likeliest to win the democratic nomination. If there’s a surprise on either side that could alter my view on the race, but if it is a Bishop vs Schertzing contest, it will be a real battle between two established and strong politicians. I would give Bishop the slightest of edges due to the marginally republican PVI, but this is one to definitely watch.
Rating – Toss Up/Tilt R

MI-9 – Sander Levin-inc vs George Glihko
The 9th district became somewhat less blue in redistricting, but is still very strongly democratic. Entrenched incumbent Sander Levin should prevail easily over Some Dude republican George Glihko.
Rating – Safe D

MI-10 – Chuck Stadler vs Candice Miller-inc
The 10th district is a solidly republican seat, and Candice Miller is a very strong and popular incumbent. She beat democrat Chuck Stadler by 40 points in 2012, and I don’t see why this year would be different.
Rating – Safe R

MI-11 - ??? vs ???
Now this seat is interesting. Republican Kerry Bentivolio is the incumbent here, and he’s sort of a whackjob, to the point where other republicans don’t really like him. Businessman David Trott is running against him in the primary and is expected to knock Bentivolio off. In expectation of this, urologist Anil Kumar and businessman David McKenzie are facing off in the democratic primary for the shot at an open seat. I’m not sure who is likelier to triumph there. Based on a hunch, I think Trott would be a fairly astute candidate and not as easy to beat as Bentivolio would be, though you can never really tell with first time non-politicians. This definitely will be re-evaluated after the primary, but I see this district as less likely to flip than the 7th or 8th.
Rating – Lean R

MI-12 – Open seat race
With longtime democratic incumbent John Dingell retiring, this seat is technically open, but his wife Debbie Dingell is running for the democrats instead. Republicans Stephen Farkas and Terry Bowman are running for the right to face her, but since this is a very democratic district, they won’t come close to beating her.
Rating – Safe D

MI-13 – John Conyers-inc vs Jeff Gorman
The 13th is based in Detroit and is one of the most democratic districts in the nation. Conyers will have no trouble dispatching republican Jeff Gorman.
Rating – Safe D

MI-14 – Open seat race
The 14th district is also centered on Detroit, and is open. This is a very heated and contested democratic primary with 3 noteworthy combatants, former US rep Hansen Clarke, state representative Rudy Hobbs, and Southfield mayor Brenda Lawrence. Republican Christina Conyers is waiting in the wings to see which democrat triumphs, and thus has the right to walk all over her in the general election.
Rating – Safe D

IN-1 – Pete Visclosky-inc vs Mark Leyva
After all the competitive seats in Michigan, we now head to Indiana, where there is comparatively little action taking place. The first district is centered on Gary and Chicago’s suburbs, and it is very democratic. Pete Visclosky isn’t a great incumbent and is somewhat scandal tainted, but he’ll go back to Congress easily unless something unexpected happens.
Rating – Safe D

IN-2 – Joseph Bock vs Jackie Walorski-inc
The South Bend-based 2nd district didn’t change a lot in redistricting, but the extra 2% republican advantage it got was the difference in Jackie Walorski’s 1% nailbiter win over democrat Brendan Mullen. Oddly enough, Mitt Romney crushed Barack Obama by 14% in 2012, so this, coupled with the fact that she couldn’t beat now Senator Joe Donnelly in 2010 of all years, makes Walorski one of the weakest republican incumbents in the House. The democrats should be going after her with hammer and tongs, and they got a pretty good candidate in Notre Dame administrator Joseph Bock. Bock hails from the democratic bastion of the district in South Bend, and has $277k in the bank, which should allow him to compete in the fall. Very few people saw this as a pickup opportunity for Dems in 2012, and had Mullen gotten a little more national support he probably would’ve won. Watch this one, I’m telling you.
Rating – Lean R

IN-3 – Justin Kuhnle vs Marlin Stutzman-inc
The Fort Wayne-based 3rd is one of the most republican districts in Indiana. Marlin Stutzman isn’t a terribly strong incumbent but I don’t see him having any trouble here.
Rating – Safe R

IN-4 – John Dale vs Todd Rokita-inc
Incumbent republican Todd Rokita is a pretty astute politician, and he sits in a very republican district in central Indiana. Democrat John Dale is playing the role of sacrificial lamb here.
Rating – Safe R

IN-5 – Shawn Denney vs Susan Brooks-inc
Another district centered in the cherry red suburbs of Indianapolis, the 5th isn’t exactly fertile territory for Democrats. Susan Brooks should be able to easily dispatch democrat Shawn Denney.
Rating – Safe R

IN-6 – Susan Heitzman vs Luke Messer-inc
The 6th is another very republican district, and it’s another seat where the democrats put up only token opposition. Incumbent Luke Messer should easily hold onto his seat.
Rating – Safe R

IN-7 – Andre Carson-inc vs Catherine Ping
The Indianapolis-based 7th is a solidly democratic district. Andre Carson won’t have any trouble making it back to Congress.
Rating – Safe D

IN-8 – Tom Spangler vs Larry Bucshon-inc
The 8th district in southwestern Indiana was once so competitive that many have referred to it as the “Bloody Eighth”. Incumbent Larry Bucshon did have a mildly competitive 10% win over democrat Dave Crooks in 2012, but I’m not expecting anything competitive this cycle. Democrat Tom Spangler is underfunded and outgunned.
Rating – Safe R

IN-9 – Bill Bailey vs Todd Young-inc
The 9th district is another seat that has been competitive in the recent past. On paper, the Democrats drew a challenger with a good political profile in former Seymour mayor Bill Bailey. The issue for Bailey is that he doesn’t appear to have any fundraising prowess, having just 1k in the bank in April. Republican Todd Young shouldn’t have much trouble unless something fundamentally changes.
Rating – Safe R

IL-1 – Bobby Rush-inc vs Jimmy Tillman
We move into Illinois now, and the 1st district takes in part of the Chicago metroplex, thus making it massively democratic. Bobby Rush will cruise.
Rating – Safe D

IL-2 – Robin Kelly-inc vs Eric Wallace
The 2nd district takes in southeastern Chicago and counties along the Indiana border. Democrat Robin Kelly shouldn’t have any trouble retaining her seat.
Rating – Safe D

IL-3 – Daniel Lipinski-inc vs Sharon Brannigan
The 3rd district is nicknamed the Madigan-mander, as it was drawn as a sink of blue dog-ish, white democrats in southwestern Chicago meant to re-elect incumbent Daniel Lipinski. It’s only marginally democratic in PVI but Lipinski is a very strong incumbent, and will easily beat republican Sharon Brannigan.
Rating – Safe D

IL-4 – Luis Gutierrez-inc vs Hector Concepcion
The 4th district is a snake of a seat that connects Hispanic neighborhoods in western Chicago. It’s one of the most democratic districts in the nation, so democratic incumbent Luis Gutierrez will easily win re-election.
Rating – Safe D

IL-5 – Mike Quigley-inc vs Vince Kolber
The 5th district is another very blue district, this one on Chicago’s north side. Incumbent Mike Quigley will make quick work of republican Vince Kolber.
Rating – Safe D

IL-6 – Michael Mason vs Peter Roskam-inc
The 6th district is a republican vote sink west of Chicago, mostly in DuPage County. The democrats made this a republican seat in order to make other districts like the 8th, 10th, and 11th more solidly democratic so they could be picked up. As a result, republican Peter Roskam, who is a strong incumbent in his own right, doesn’t have much to worry about. Democrat Michael Mason will try to beat him, but he is without resources.
Rating – Safe R

IL-7 – Danny Davis-inc vs Richard Bumpers
The 7th district takes in downtown Chicago, and is one of the most democratic districts in the nation. Danny Davis will go back to Congress without fail.
Rating – Safe D

IL-8 – Tammy Duckworth-inc vs Lawrence Kaifesh
The 8th district in 2012 saw odious republican incumbent Joe Walsh meet his end at the hands of Iraq war veteran Tammy Duckworth. Her victory was just 10%, a 6% underperformance of Obama’s 16% win over Romney, but these districts in the Chicago suburbs do have some ancestral republican tendencies. That being said, republican Lawrence Kaifesh doesn’t appear to be much of a challenge. Notably, he has just 51k in the bank to Duckworth’s 1.36 million. Duckworth should win this one easily.
Rating – Safe D

IL-9 – Jan Schakowsky-inc vs Susanne Atanus
The 9th district is another democratic bastion based in northern Chicago. Not only does incumbent Jan Schakowsky have an easy district, but she’s going up against a complete whackjob in tea partier Susanne Atanus. This one will be a big blowout for Team Blue.
Rating – Safe D

IL-10 – Brad Schneider-inc vs Bob Dold
The 10th district, which you could call the “Bloody Tenth”, has been the site of many competitive races of late. 2012’s was a thriller, which saw Brad Schneider pull out a gerrymandering induced 1% win over incumbent republican Bob Dold. Undeterred, Dold is looking to win his seat back, and he’s a very powerful politician with a lot of money in the bank, 1.65 million in fact. Not to be outdone, Schneider has 1.90 million in the bank and has PVI on his side, as this seat is about D+6. In a normal year, that’s on the fringes of what a republican could possibly hope to win. Right now I’m going to be cautious and put this race in the competitive zone because of Dold’s prowess as a campaigner…but I would be stunned if a republican could pick off a non-tainted Dem incumbent in a D+6 district in a non-wave year.
Rating – Lean D

IL-11 – Bill Foster-inc vs Darlene Senger
The 11th used to be a marginal district, but it was changed in redistricting to be a democratic district. At D+7, its not exactly fertile ground for republicans. Republican Darlene Senger was initially touted by the NRCC, but she has just 150k in the bank to Foster’s 1.39 million. Given that, the PVI, and the fact that Foster crushed former incumbent Judy Biggert by 17% in 2012, I can’t see how this is competitive.
Rating – Safe D

IL-12 – Bill Enyart-inc vs Mike Bost
The 12th district is a marginally democratic district, but one that is turning somewhat rightward. The democratic incumbent is Bill Enyart, who won this open seat in 2012 by 9%, a pretty strong performance considering Barack Obama only won by 2% over Mitt Romney. Republican state representative Mike Bost has a strong profile and is looking for a chance to pick up this seat. He’s off to a good fundraising start, collecting $348k in his bank account to Enyart’s $677k. I’d like to say that Enyart is a strong enough incumbent for this not to be a toss up race, but given the rightward pull lately in downstate Illinois and the close fundraising race, there’s good reason for Team Blue to be concerned. I see this being a real battle, and the GOP’s best shot at a pickup in Illinois.
Rating – Toss Up/Tilt D

IL-13 – Ann Callis vs Rodney Davis-inc
The 13th district connects many of the cities in downstate Illinois, and is pretty even in terms of PVI, maybe a point or two toward the republicans. Mitt Romney beat Barack Obama here by .3%, one of the closest congressional districts in the country in 2012, and the congressional race was just as tight, with Rodney Davis beating democrat David Gill by the same .3%. Given this, you know this district will be hard fought once again. The democratic candidate is former Illinois appeals court chief judge Ann Callis. She has a very strong profile and has been fundraising very well and holds an impressive $717k in the bank as of Q2, though that trails Davis’s 1.33 million. As with the neighboring 12th, the overall trend in downstate Illinois isn’t that positive for Team Blue, and that is just enough to say that Davis will hang on. That being said, this is a great pickup opportunity for the democrats, and Callis well could win.
Rating – Toss Up/Tilt R

IL-14 – Dennis Anderson vs Randy Hultgren-inc
This is just the 2nd legit republican district in Illinois we’ve seen so far, and it features a rematch of 2012, with democrat Dennis Anderson looking to improve on his 17% defeat. I expect Randy Hultgren to win by at least that and maybe more this time around.
Rating – Safe R

IL-15 – Eric Thorsland vs John Shimkus-inc
This is the most republican district in Illinois, and should be an easy seat for incumbent John Shimkus to hold onto.
Rating – Safe R

IL-16 – Randall Olsen vs Adam Kinzinger-inc
There’s not really much to see here, even though the seat is just R+6. Incumbent Adam Kinzinger is a very strong politician, and it’s very hard to see democrat Randall Olsen getting close to him in this contest.
Rating – Safe R

IL-17 – Cheri Bustos-inc vs Bobby Schilling
The 17th was the site of another gerrymandering induced victory for Team Blue, as Cheri Bustos knocked off republican incumbent Bobby Schilling by 6%. At D+7, it’s not exactly fertile territory for republicans, but Schilling is back for another go in 2014. He’s got obvious name recognition plus $500k in the bank, though that pales compared to Bustos’s 1.47 million. Maybe Schilling thinks he can do better this time around in a better year for his party than 2012, but he’s fighting against incumbency now, and knocking out an incumbent on such blue territory is a hard sell for any republican.
Rating – Likely D

IL-18 – Darrel Miller vs Aaron Schock-inc
The final seat in Illinois is a blood red one held by incumbent Aaron Schock. He won’t have any trouble holding onto it in November.
Rating – Safe R

WI-1 - ??? vs Paul Ryan-inc
We head into the Badger State now, and we start in Paul Ryan’s district. This seat in southeast WI is about R+3, but Ryan is about as powerful an incumbent as you can think of. 2012 candidate Rob Zerban and filmmaker Amir Kaleka are battling for the right to face Ryan, but this seat will stay red for sure.
Rating – Safe R

WI-2 – Mark Pocan-inc vs Peter Theron
The Madison-based 2nd district is a major democratic stronghold. Mark Pocan won’t have any trouble keeping this seat blue in November.
Rating – Safe D

WI-3 – Ron Kind-inc vs ???
This district in southwestern Wisconsin is not all that democratic at roughly D+4, but it does feature a powerful incumbent in Ron Kind. Three Some Dudes are running in the republican primary for a shot at Kind, but given that the incumbent won by nearly 30% last time around, I don’t see this being close.
Rating – Safe D

WI-4 – Gwen Moore-inc vs ???
The Milwaukee-based 4th district is the most democratic district in Wisconsin. Incumbent Gwen Moore, short of getting stuck with a freezer full of laundered cash, will be heading back to Congress.
Rating – Safe D

WI-5 – Chris Rockwood vs Jim Sensenbrenner-inc
Oh Wauke$ha County, how we don’t love thee.
Rating – Safe R

WI-6 – Open seat race
It’s been a while since we’ve run across an open seat contest, but we get one here as Tom Petri is retiring. A sizeable field of strong politicians has jumped at the chance to take the open seat. For the republicans, state senators Glenn Grothman and Joseph Leibham, and state representative Duey Stroebel have all jumped in. For the democrats, Winnebago County Executive Mark Harris is in the race. Looking at fundraising, none of the candidates have impressive totals in the bank, but with the primary round next week that’s to be expected. I’ll have to look at this one again after the primary round, but with an R+4 PVI, the republican that comes out of the primary has to be favored.
Rating – Likely R

WI-7 - ??? vs Sean Duffy-inc
The 7th district covers most of northwestern Wisconsin. It’s a seat that Mitt Romney won by 3% in 2012 over Barack Obama, but incumbent Sean Duffy did much better, beating democrat Pat Kreitlow by a surprisingly large 11%. Democrats Kelly Westlund and Mike Krsiean are battling for a shot to take on Duffy in November. Westlund is a city councilor and did have about 100k in the bank as of April, so she’s a definite step above a Some Dude. DKE isn’t tracking any fundraising data on this district and Ballotpedia doesn’t have July listed yet. I’ll have to look at this again after the primary. Right now a D pickup doesn’t look likely, but they’d have a small chance if Westlund wins the primary.
Rating – Likely R

WI-8 – Ron Gruett vs Reid Ribble-inc
The Green Bay-based 8th is our final Great Lakes district, and incumbent Reid Ribble has proven to be quite capable, winning here by 12% in 2012 despite Romney only beating Obama by a little under 4%. Democrat Ron Gruett will take his best shot, but he won’t get far without resources against a skilled incumbent like Ribble.
Rating – Safe R

So we've gone through all 5 of the Great Lakes states, and I'm sorry to say that I don't currently see any seats changing hands. Probably the most likely seat in the region to change hands is IL-13, followed closely by MI-7, but I just don't feel confident enough at this time to swing those seats into the democratic column. Republicans in the region are pretty much maxed out, so their aim will be to maintain their advantage as opposed to playing offense. Really IL-12 is the only seat in the whole region I could see them picking up.

The national swing stays D+1 through the first four regions. Next diary up I'll have coverage of the Interior Southeast, a broad region that extends from West Virginia to Texas.

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What will be the net swing for House seats in the Great Lakes Region?

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What will be the net swing for House seats in the Great Lakes Region?

R+3 or worse

4 votes

R+2

3 votes

R+1

4 votes

Even

11 votes

D+1

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D+2

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D+3

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D+4

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StephenCLE's Baseline House Rankings - The Coastal Southeast

StephenCLE

Community (This content is not subject to review by Daily Kos staff prior to publication.)

Wednesday May 21, 2014 · 6:48 AM PDT

2014/05/21 · 06:48

Welcome DKE'ers to StephenCLE's Baseline House Rankings. Last time, we went through the Northeast Region of the country, a democratic bastion that saw Team Blue tabbed to pick up a net of 2 seats in November. Today, we head into a region that is mostly republican but contains two swing states and is the site of a major social and demographic shift toward the democratic party within the past 8-10 years. I'm talking of course about the Coastal Southeast. This region contains the states of Virginia, North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia, and Florida.

Perhaps no region in the country, other than maybe the Great Lakes, has seen the impact of Republican gerrymandering more than the Coastal Southeast. The republicans hold the majority of House seats in all of these states, in most cases by wide margins. Can democrats make a dent into the republican dominance here? Let's find out.

NOTE: I compiled this diary before last night's Georgia primary, so some of the candidates in GA districts are in fact known now.

Virginia –

VA-1 – nobody vs Rob Wittman-inc
We start in the Commonwealth of Virginia, and this first district is unopposed by democrats. Republican Rob Wittman will be going back to Congress.
Rating – Safe R

VA-2 – Suzanne Patrick vs Scott Rigell-inc
The Virginia Beach-based 2nd district is the swingiest in the state. Obama won here by 1.5% over Romney, and both parties have held this seat within the past decade. Republican Scott Rigell won by 8% over an underfunded opponent in 2012. Democrats have landed a very solid recruit this cycle in former Navy commander Suzanne Patrick. The 2nd is a military heavy district in a military heavy state, so her profile fits like a glove. She’s fundraised okay so far, holding 195k in the bank to Rigell’s 665k. Rigell's money total actually isn't that impressive compared to some of the incumbents we'll see later on in this diary. If Patrick is able to stay financially competitive this will be a big race to watch. Right now I give Rigell the slightest of edges, but this one will likely be tight.
Rating – Toss Up/Tilt R

VA-3 – Robert Scott-inc vs nobody
The 3rd district takes in Norfolk and Hampton Roads, and is dark blue. Republicans did not put up a challenger to incumbent Robert Scott so he’ll be going back to Congress.
Rating – Safe D

VA-4 – nobody vs Randy Forbes-inc
You know what really pisses me off? Democrats not contesting a 49% Obama district like this one. Seriously, this district’s PVI is about R+3 and we don’t even have a candidate. That is pathetic.
Rating – Safe R

VA-5 – nobody vs Robert Hurt-inc
Oh by the way, we left the 5th district uncontested too. Nice going Virginia Dems, you sure have your ducks in a row this election cycle.
Rating – Safe R

VA-6 – nobody vs Bob Goodlatte-inc
Seeing a trend here? The 6th district is uncontested as well. At least this district was one in which Obama didn’t crack 40% so it’s not like Team Blue had much of a chance to begin with barring a scandal.
Rating – Safe R

VA-7 – nobody vs Eric Cantor-inc
I guess Virginia Democrats are like Massachusetts Republicans. When they see a district they don’t like, they don’t contest it. Yeesh.
Rating – Safe R

VA-8 – Open seat race
Meanwhile, up in the DC burbs, you have a monster clown car primary for the ages, as no less than 9 democrats are all vying for the primary nod in this massively democratic district. Micah Edmond is the republican candidate here, but he’ll be crushed by whoever emerges from the Dem primary.
Rating – Safe D

VA-9 – nobody vs Morgan Griffith-inc
Yet another republican seat with no democratic candidate. Yawn.
Rating – Safe R

VA-10 – Open seat race – John Foust vs Barbara Comstock
Now here’s a really interesting contest. Longtime GOP representative Frank Wolf is retiring this year, setting up a battle in this swing district. Mitt Romney won here by 1% in 2012, and Obama won it by 3% in 2008, making the seat about R+2. Both parties landed impressive candidates here too. The democratic candidate is Fairfax County Supervisor John Foust, whereas the GOP candidate is state delegate (representative) Barbara Comstock. Both candidates are fundraising very solidly to this point, with Foust holding 626k in the bank and Comstock holding 520k on hand. I think this is going to be a knock down, drag out fight between two fairly experienced politicians. I’m giving Comstock the tiniest edge because of the PVI, but boy is this one to watch.
Rating – Toss Up/Tilt R

VA-11 – Gerry Connolly-inc vs Suzanne Scholte
Gerry Connolly was able to hold this northern Virginia seat narrowly in 2010, and then republicans responded by making it even bluer, so it’s not exactly high on Team Red’s pickup list. Suzanne Scholte will give her best effort but short of a scandal or something big against Connolly, it won’t be enough.
Rating – Safe D

North Carolina –
NC-1 – GK Butterfield-inc vs Arthur Rich
We move into the Tar Heel State now, which is a boring one as far as the House is concern. The 1st is a rural black majority district at 71% Obama, so democrat GK Butterfield won’t have any trouble beating republican Arthur Rich in November.
Rating – Safe D

NC-2 – Clay Aiken vs Renee Ellmers-inc
Renee Ellmers was the biggest beneficiary of North Carolina’s stupid law that says the governor can’t veto the legislature’s redistricting plans. Because of that law, the GOP passed a crazy gerrymander, and the 2nd went from a swing district to a 57% Romney district. You’d think she’d be safe here, but she has a bit of a reputation as an underperformer. Furthermore, her democratic opponent is none other than singer/musician Clay Aiken, who narrowly beat the tragic late Keith Crisco in the democratic primary. Aiken’s celebrity status might attract some outside spending and media coverage here, but at the end of the day, this is still an R+9 seat. Ellmers would have to run a horrid campaign to lose.
Rating – Likely R

NC-3 – Marshall Adame vs Walter Jones-inc
This coastal district nearly became the first this cycle to see its incumbent lose in the primary round, but republican Walter Jones was able to worm his way through to the general election. Apparently his crime is being too moderate. In either case, Jones shouldn’t have as much trouble in the general as he did in the primary because of how red the seat is. At R+10, its not exactly high on the Democrats’ target list. They did get a candidate with an interesting profile in Marshall Adame, who is a 22-year veteran of the Marines as well as a former US diplomat. I would say in a less red district that maybe the disaffected conservatives who voted against Jones in the primary would stay home and it would help Adame turn an inside straight, but given the PVI it’s hard to imagine. Still, I’m going to put it up on the board just in case we get that sort of perfect storm situation.
Rating – Likely R

NC-4 – David Price-inc vs Paul Wright
The 4th district is basically a democratic vote sink in the research triangle. David Price is the incumbent here and he’ll win easily against republican Paul Wright.
Rating – Safe D

NC-5 – ??? vs Virginia Foxx-inc
The 5th district takes in much of northwestern North Carolina. The odious Virginia Foxx is the representative here, and in this red district she should be a shoo-in to win another term. Amazingly, 4 democrats jumped in to get a chance at challenging her in the general election. Not surprisingly, the dem primary went to a runoff, with businessman Josh Brannon and 2012 gubernatorial candidate Gardenia Henley emerging as the top 2. Regardless of who wins the runoff I can’t see either knocking off Foxx.
Rating – Safe R

NC-6 – Open seat contest
The 6th district, like many in North Carolina’s gerrymandered map, clocks in at about R+9 or R+10 PVI. It’s a district that should be solidly republican. Democrat Laura Fjeld will try to change that in November, but her odds are long. The republican primary was a 9-man clown car that went to a runoff between Rockingham County district attorney Phil Berger and Some Dude Mark Walker. Whoever wins the runoff should win in November.
Rating – Safe R

NC-7 – Open seat contest
The 7th district in southeastern North Carolina was one that frustrated republicans for a long time. Democrat Mike McIntyre held this seat for a long time, even surviving a republican redistricting last cycle by a super slim margin. But perhaps knowing that his time was growing thin, McIntyre retired, prompting an open seat. New Hanover County Commissioner Jonathan Barfield is the democratic candidate in the race. The republican is 2012 candidate David Rouzer, who came agonizingly close to beating McIntyre last time around. Since the district is hugely republican in nature and since Rouzer holds a 510k to 9k lead in cash on hand, this should be an easy pickup for Team Red.
Rating – Safe R (2nd GOP pickup, overall score D+1)

NC-8 – Antonio Blue vs Richard Hudson-inc
The 8th is another very republican district. Richard Hudson is the incumbent, and he should have no trouble with democratic candidate Antonio Blue
Rating – Safe R

NC-9 – nobody vs Robert Pittenger-inc
Oddly enough, the 9th district is more democratic than some of these NC districts I’ve gone through so far, yet here Team Blue didn’t field a candidate. Huh.
Rating – Safe R

NC-10 – Tate McQueen vs Patrick McHenry-inc
Here’s another snoozer of a contest. Patrick McHenry sits in a very republican district in western North Carolina. There was a possibility that Asheville mayor Mark Meadows would jump into the race, but he declined, and the democratic candidate is Some Dude Tate McQueen. McHenry will win easily.
Rating – Safe R

NC-11 – Tom Hill vs Mark Meadows-inc
This is the most republican district in North Carolina. Incumbent Mark Meadows won this seat in 2012, beating democrat Hayden Rogers by 15%. Rogers actually outperformed Barack Obama here by quite a bit, so that gives you an idea of the territory. The democratic candidate is the guy that lost the 2012 primary to Rogers, Tom Hill. He may be rejoicing getting to the general this time, but he’s going down.
Rating – Safe R

NC-12 – Open seat race
This has been for some time now one of the ugliest districts ever conceived. It’s a dem vote sink stretching from Charlotte north to Greensboro. Mel Watt, the incumbent here, retired. A massive clown car primary on the democratic side was won by state representative Alma Adams, who knocked out fellow state rep Marcus Brandon and state senator Malcolm Graham. The republican is Vince Coakley. In the end, Adams will win this one big.
Rating – Safe D

NC-13 – Brenda Clearly vs George Holding-inc
The 13th district is the 4th most democratic in the state, but at R+7, that’s not saying much. George Holding is the republican incumbent here. Brenda Cleary is the democratic candidate. I can’t find anything about her in terms of profile or fundraising that would lead me to believe that she’s up for this massive uphill climb.
Rating – Safe R

South Carolina –

SC-1 – nobody vs Mark Sanford-inc
You know a district is bad when they’ll elect Mark Sanford over Stephen Colbert’s sister. Not surprisingly, democrats abandoned this one for the remainder of the cycle.
Rating – Safe R

SC-2 - ??? vs Joe Wilson-inc
We move from disgraced former governors to the guy that couldn’t keep his mouth shut during the State of the Union. Obama lie-mongerer Joe Wilson lies here, and at R+12, its doubtful that he’ll ever lose to a democrat. Democrats Phil Black and Ed Greenleaf are duking it out for the chance to beat Wilson in November, but it’s a fat chance.
Rating – Safe R

SC-3 – ??? vs Jeff Duncan-inc
The 3rd district is the most republican in the state. Jeff Duncan should be a shoo-in for re-election. Democrats Hosea Cleveland and Barbara Mullis are battling in the primary for the right to get annihilated in November.
Rating – Safe R

SC-4 – nobody vs Trey Gowdy-inc
This is Bob Inglis’s old seat. You remember him? He was the guy that got kicked out because he compromised with democrats too much. Yeah, this district is pretty much a wasteland, so democrats abandoned it as well.
Rating – Safe R

SC-5 – Tom Adams vs Mick Mulvaney-inc
At R+7, the 5th district is one that could conceivably be competitive under the right circumstances. This is not that year though. Democrat Tom Adams is an underfunded Some Dude. That’s not going to get it done against incumbent Mick Mulvaney.
Rating – Safe R

SC-6 – James Clyburn-inc vs ???
The 6th district is basically a democratic vote sink taking in most dem voters between Columbia and Charleston. James Clyburn is the incumbent. He’ll have no trouble defending the seat against either Anthony Culler or Leon Winn, whichever unfortunate republican soul makes it out of the primary.
Rating – Safe D

SC-7 – Gloria Tinubu vs Tom Rice-inc
The 7th is the 2nd most democratic in the state, but at R+7, it’s a bit of an uphill slog for Team Blue. This race is a rematch of last election cycle, with democrat Gloria Tinubu going up against incumbent republican Tom Rice. Rice won last time around by 11%, which more or less matched the presidential vote. The margin could be similar this time, which means I have to put it on the board, but its hard to see Tinubu doing better in a midterm than in a presidential year.
Rating – Likely R

Georgia –

GA-1 – Open seat race
Moving into the Peach State now, we start in the southeastern 1st district. This seat is open due to Jack Kingston’s run for the Senate. There is a lot of star power in the republican primary, led by state senator Earl Carter, former Newt Gingrich aide John McCallum, and surgeon/army ranger Bob Johnson. The democrats in the race, Brian Reese, Marc Smith, and Amy Tavio, have lesser profiles. Johnson, Carter, and McCallum all have at least 372k in the bank whereas the democrats have raised bupkus.
Rating – Safe R

GA-2 – The 2nd district is the most even PVI-wise in the state at D+6, but its not exactly high on republicans’ hit lists. Sanford Bishop is the democratic incumbent. The republicans in the race are Vivian Childs and Greg Duke, neither of which have any sort of political profile or cash. Safe.
Rating – Safe D

GA-3 – nobody vs Lynn Westmoreland-inc
No democrats filed here, so the seat will stay red. Incumbent Lynn Westmoreland does have a primary challenger, but that’s immaterial for our purposes.
Rating – Safe R

GA-4 – Hank Johnson-inc vs nobody
The Atlanta-based 4th is going uncontested by republicans. Hank Johnson has a primary challenger, but again, that doesn’t matter as the seat will stay blue.
Rating – Safe D

GA-5 – John Lewis-inc vs nobody
Incumbent John Lewis is unopposed here, so he’ll be returning to Congress.
Rating – Safe D

GA-6 – Robert Montigel vs Tom Price-inc
This seat in Atlanta’s northern suburbs is very republican. Tom Price should have no trouble fending off challenger Robert Montigel.
Rating – Safe R

GA-7 – Thomas Wight vs Rob Woodall-inc
Another suburban district, this should be an easy hold for incumbent Rob Woodall. The democratic challenger is Thomas Wight, but it’s doubtful that he has the wight stuff for this encounter.
Rating – Safe R

GA-8 – nobody vs Austin Scott-inc
No democrat stepped forward to run here, so Austin Scott is going back to Congress.
Rating – Safe R

GA-9 – David Vogel vs Doug Collins-inc
The 9th district is one of the most republican districts in the country. The republican incumbent is Doug Collins, and he should have no issues here. The only real surprise is that team blue has a candidate in David Vogel.
Rating – Safe R

GA-10 – Open seat race
The 10th district is being vacated thanks to Paul Broun’s run for Senate. The GOP has a 7-way clown car of a primary (are you noticing a theme here?), with the most likely nominee being former state representative Donna Sheldon. Jody Hice, Brian Slowinski, and Stephen Simpson are some of the other names in the mix. The democratic candidate is attorney Ken Dious. Given that this seat is about R+13, I don’t see any pathway to a democratic victory.
Rating – Safe R

GA-11 – The 11th district is being vacated by Phil Gingrey, who also decided to run for the Senate. A big slew of brand-name republicans are running here, including state house majority whip Edward Lindsey, state senator Barry Loudermilk, and former representative and presidential candidate Bob Barr. On the flip side, no democrats are running.
Rating – Safe R

GA-12 – John Barrow-inc vs ???
The 12th district is one sore spot for republicans. They re-jigged this district in redistricting to try to take out longtime incumbent John Barrow, to which Barrow basically replied that their kung fu was weak, beating republican Lee Anderson by 7 points. This time around, a whole new slew of names are battling in the R primary for the chance to take on Barrow and his crazy 1.78 million warchest. 2012 primary candidate Rick Allen is in the race, as is businessman Eugene Yu and state representative Delvis Dutton. Allen has been fundraising very well and has 460k in the bank, while Yu has an extremely impressive 902k, so if one of them emerges from the primary they will be competitive with Barrow on the airwaves. The prospect of a runoff might be somewhat of a detriment to GOP hopes here as they’ll have to spend additional cash before the general. Ultimately, I feel that Barrow is a really, really strong incumbent that is battle tested and has tons of resources at his disposal. He’s got the edge.
Rating – Lean D

GA-13 – David Scott-inc vs nobody
No republicans filed in the 13th, which is a hugely democratic seat. It will stay blue in November.
Rating – Safe D

GA-14 – nobody vs Tom Graves-inc
No democrats filed in the 14th, which is a hugely republican seat. It will stay red in November.
Rating – Safe R

Florida –

FL-1 – James Bryan vs Jeff Miller-inc
We move on to the Sunshine State, and this first district is in the western panhandle. It’s massively republican ground, and republican Jeff Miller should have no trouble holding the seat against democrat James Bryan.
Rating – Safe R

FL-2 – Gwen Graham vs Steve Southerland-inc
The 2nd district is a district centered on Tallahassee. It contains a lot of old-school Dixie democrats, aka Demosaurs, along with a sizeable black population. That being said, it’s still about R+5 as Obama did poorly in this district in both presidential runs. Republican Steve Southerland isn’t exactly a strong incumbent though, as he won his race in 2012 without getting any crossover support at all. The thinking here is that he may be a weak incumbent. 2012 primary candidate Gwen Graham, the daughter of former Governor/Senator Bob Graham, is back. This time she’s in the general election, and she’s got a huge fundraising warchest of 1.79 million. Southerland is doing very well himself with 1.49 million, but whenever you’re looking up at your challenger in the money game, that’s not good for an incumbent. The PVI of this district is a bit misleading too, as local and state dems often do better in FL-2 than what Barack Obama’s numbers show. I think this is definitely a race to watch. Right now I give Southerland a paper thin edge, but wow is this one likely to be tight.
Rating – Toss Up/Tilt R

FL-3 – Marihelen Wheeler vs Ted Yoho-inc
The 3rd district is a bright red seat in northern Florida. Incumbent Ted Yoho shouldn’t have too much to worry about here. Democrat Marihelen Wheeler will try to beat him, but in an R+14 district like this, you’re pretty much relying on a scandal to have a shot.
Rating – Safe R

FL-4 – nobody vs Ander Crenshaw-inc
There are some third party candidates running against Ander Crenshaw, but no democrats filed. Team Red will continue to hold this one into the next session.
Rating – Safe R

FL-5 – Corrine Brown-inc vs ???
This district is a nasty looking Dem vote sink stretching from Jacksonville to Orlando. It’ll most likely get redrawn in 2015 due to the Fair Districts amendment, but for now, it’s a democratic vote sink. 2 republicans, Thuy Lowe and Gloreatha Scurry-Smith are battling for the right to get dismantled.
Rating – Safe D

FL-6 – David Cox vs Ron DeSantis-inc
The 6th district is about R+10, so it’s more fertile ground for republicans. Incumbent Ron Desantis actually underperformed Mitt Romney’s margin in 2012, so you could say he isn’t a particularly strong incumbent. But I don’t see underfunded democrat David Cox being able to take advantage.
Rating – Safe R

FL-7 – Wesley Neuman vs John Mica-inc
The 7th district is a pinkish colored district at R+4. The incumbent, John Mica, is a particularly strong one though. He got 59% of the vote in 2012 while Mitt Romney only got 51%. The democrat here is Wesley Neuman, another underfunded challenger. He won’t have a chance against Mica.
Rating – Safe R

FL-8 - ??? vs Bill Posey-inc
The 8th district is about R+9, so it’s not exactly easy pickings for democrats. The republican incumbent, Bill Posey, is pretty much an establishment type that won’t hang himself in a campaign. Two democrats, Gabriel Rothblatt and Corry Westbrook, are facing off in the primary. Westbrook has some cash too, at 164k, which is notable since Posey doesn’t have a huge warchest at 608k. However, I just see this district as too red for that to make much of a difference.
Rating – Safe R

FL-9 – Alan Grayson-inc vs ???
The 9th district is a kinda-sorta democratic vote sink in central Florida, aka the Disneyworld District. Incumbent Alan Grayson is no Disney Princess though, to most republicans he’s probably Jafar, Cruella Deville, and Malificent all put together. Three republicans, Jorge Bonilla, Carol Platt, and Peter Vivaldi, will go at it for the right to try on the proverbial glass slipper in November. I don’t see it fitting.
Rating – Safe D

FL-10 – The 10th district was the site of a close contest, as incumbent Daniel Webster defeated democratic challenger Val Demings by 3%. That was an impressive run by Demings because Mitt Romney beat Barack Obama by 8% here. Webster doesn’t appear to have great opposition this time, as Some Dudes Michael McKenna and Shayan Modarres, and former Eustis City Commissioner Bill Ferree are the democratic challengers. Webster might be a weak incumbent, but he does have 1.96 million in the bank whereas the democrats have raised very little. The closeness of last cycle plus the PVI is enough for me to put this on the board, but I’m not feeling confident.
Rating – Likely R

FL-11 – David Koller vs Richard Nugent-inc
The 11th district is another solidly red district. The republican incumbent, Richard Nugent, should be able to easily dispatch democrat David Koller.
Rating – Safe R

FL-12 – nobody vs Gus Bilirakis-inc
I find it strange that this district is only 54-44 Romney, meaning there are much redder districts around that have democratic candidates running, yet here we don’t have a candidate. That’s failure.
Rating – Safe R

FL-13 – nobody vs David Jolly-inc
And speaking of failure…holy St Petersburg Batman! First off, we push out one of our best candidates to be had in attorney Jessica Ehrlich, for former state CFO Alex Sink. That seemed okay at the time, but Sink ran a campaign that could be described as iffy at best, and lost the special election to David Jolly in this R+1 district. Then, some moron at the Pinellas County democratic party thought it was a good idea to push out reverend Manuel Sykes, a real democrat, for Ed Jany, an independent who ultimately didn’t even make the race. So now we have no democrat running here. I get that most dems are probably waiting for the Fair Districts suit to end up putting all of St Petersburg into this district and thus make it a blue seat, but this was a total sham as far as this cycle is concerned.
Rating – Safe R

FL-14 – Kathy Castor-inc vs nobody
The Tampa Bay-based 14th is going uncontested by republicans. Kathy Castor will be back.
Rating – Safe D

FL-15 – Alan Cohn vs Dennis Ross-inc
The 15th district is between R+5 and R+6, so it’s on a fringe of what a democrat could conceivably win in a normal circumstance. Incumbent Dennis Ross did not have a race in 2012, so it remains to be seen if he has any campaign rust to shake off. The democratic challenger here is television reporter Alan Cohn. Cohn has raised about 160k thus far, but he’s well behind Ross at 718k. If he were to kick his fundraising into high gear I could see this being interesting, but for now Ross has a nice edge.
Rating – Likely R

FL-16 – Henry Lawrence vs Vern Buchanan-inc
Vern Buchanan has been a historically troubled incumbent. He was nearly knocked out in 2006, and had a tougher than expected race in 2012 in which he underperformed Mitt Romney by 4%. This time around though his only opposition comes from underfunded democrat Henry Lawrence. In this R+7 district, I think Buchanan will be fine this cycle.
Rating – Safe R

FL-17 – Will Bronson vs Tom Rooney-inc
The 17th district is another republican bastion. Tom Rooney knocked off democrat Will Bronson by 17% in 2012. Bronson is back for another go this cycle, but I can’t see him faring any better this time.
Rating – Safe R

FL-18 – Patrick Murphy-inc vs ???
This was one of the closest congressional races in the nation in 2012. Democrat Patrick Murphy knocked off Republican firebrand Allen West by half a percent in this district that Mitt Romney carried by 4%. It’s R+3 in PVI, which means that republicans will be gunning hard to win it back. The R primary is crazy. You have a lot of names, including former state representative Carl Domino, former Tequesta councilman Calvin Turnquest, and Alan Schlesinger, who was a 2006 Senate candidate, in Connecticut! Murphy must have known a tough challenge was coming because he’s fundraised since day 1, and holds a mind blowing 2.84 million in cash on hand. None of the republican candidates are over 100k on hand and the primary is still to come. At this point I have to conclude that Murphy has the edge regardless of who emerges just because of that monstrous financial edge.
Rating – Lean D

FL-19 – Open seat race
The 19th is open due to being vacated by Trey Radel following his being arrested for cocaine. There will actually be a special election here in June to fill the vacancy followed by the normal November election. The republican candidate in the special is Curt Clawson, the democrat is April Freeman. In a less red district this might be an intriguing race, but the district is R+13, so I’m fairly confident it will go red in June and stay red in November.
Rating – Safe R

FL-20 – Alcee Hastings-inc vs Jay Bonner
The 20th district is the 2nd most democratic in Florida at 83% Obama. Alcee Hastings has a stiff primary challenge from Palm Beach Commissioner Jean Enright. Whoever wins that will walk all over republican Jay Bonner in November.
Rating – Safe D

FL-21 – Ted Deutsch-inc vs nobody
Republicans are not contesting this south Florida district, so this seat will stay blue.
Rating – Safe D

FL-22 – Lois Frankel vs ???
This district is D+3, so you’d think that republicans would be contesting it, but that doesn’t appear to be the case. Two underfunded republicans, Andrea McGee and Jeremy Rodgers, are hoping to earn the right to face Frankel. This looks and feels like a recruiting fail on the republican side. I’m not seeing a pathway to victory for either of them unless there is a republican wave in November.
Rating – Safe D

FL-23 – Debbie Wasserman-Schulz-inc vs ???
To a lot of republicans, Debbie Wasserman-Schulz is vile and nasty, perhaps even a blowhard. They’d love to take her out. The trouble is that her district is D+10. One of the republicans running in the primary here, Joe Kaufman, has actually raised 399k thus far. The only problem is that Schulz is sitting on a 1.4 million warchest. This is a no-go for Team Red.
Rating – Safe D

FL-24 – Frederica Wilson-inc vs Dufirstson Julio Neree
This north Miami district is the most democratic district in Florida and one of the most democratic in the nation. I almost can’t believe that the republicans have a real candidate here. Frederica Wilson, unless she loses to Michael Etienne in the primary, will be going back to Congress. Either way it’ll stay blue.
Rating – Safe D

FL-25 – nobody vs Mario Diaz Balart-inc
This may be an ethnic Cuban district and very ancestrally republican, but come on guys. Barack Obama had 49% here last election and democrats didn’t put up a candidate?! That’s bull.
Rating – Safe R

FL-26 – Joe Garcia vs ???
This has the makings of a marquee race. This seat has an R+1 PVI, but Barack Obama took 53% here in 2012. Joe Garcia took out scandal plagued David Rivera to win this seat. Republicans are going after him hammer and tongs though. Cutler Bay mayor Ed MacDougall, Miami-Dade Commission Chair Joe Martinez, and Miami-Dade school board member Carlos Curbelo, among others, are battling it out in the primary for the right to take on Garcia. Curbelo has been fundraising extremely well, and if he makes it out of the primary, his current total of 953k will keep him competitive with Garcia’s imposing warchest of 2.28 million. We’ll see how the primary shakes out, but I feel that Garcia, despite having an easier district on paper, will have to fight harder than his comrade Patrick Murphy because he won’t have complete ownership of the airwaves like Murphy will. He has the edge, but not by a lot.
Rating – Toss Up/Tilt D

FL-27 – nobody vs Ileana Ros-Lehtinen-inc
You’ve got to be freaking kidding me. This district is zooming to the left and Barack Obama put up 53% here in 2012 and what…we don’t have a candidate to face Ileana Ros-Lehtinen?! Wow. Folks, we’re just giving republicans the majority with mega fails like this.
Rating – Safe R

Coastal Southeast Current Totals:
Safe D – 19 seats
Likely D – 0 seats
Lean D – 2 seats
Toss Up/Tilt D – 1 seat
Toss Up/Tilt R – 3 seats
Lean R – 0 seats
Likely R – 5 seats
Safe R – 42 seats
Total DEM Seats – 22 seats
Total GOP Seats – 50 seats

Total DEM Seats (Northeast + Coastal Southeast) = 85
Total GOP Seats (Northeast + Coastal Southeast) = 74

Total DEM Pickups – NY-11, NY-19, NJ-3
Total GOP Pickups – NY-21, NC-7
Current Swing - D+1

Next diary...the Great Lakes

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What will be the net swing for democrats in the Coastal Southeast?

R+3 or worse

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StephenCLE's Baseline House Rankings - The Northeast

StephenCLE

Community (This content is not subject to review by Daily Kos staff prior to publication.)

Thursday May 08, 2014 · 6:26 AM PDT

2014/05/08 · 06:26

Hello everybody, and welcome to StephenCLE's House Baseline Rankings, Part 1.

Rating the House of Representatives is, in a nutshell, the main reason for my being on this site as an active member. I started doing House prognostication in the 2010 election cycle, so this is my 3rd trip through the election cycle now. I do ratings for Senate, President, and Governors as well, but I consider this the most fun, the most artful, and the most ridiculous of all. As you'll see, there are a lot of factors to consider when rating House races, like incumbency, PVI, fundraising, candidate quality, the national generic ballot (which killed me in 2010) and much more. Let's jump right into it.

I will, over the next several months, preview all 435 House races in the nation. I will accomplish that by breaking the House up by geographical region. Here are the seats by diary number:

Diary 1 – New England + Mid-Atlantic – 87 seats
Diary 2 – Coastal Southeast – 72 seats
Diary 3 – Great Lakes – 65 seats
Diary 4 – Interior Southeast + Great Plains – 73 seats
Dairy 5 – Desert Southwest + Rocky Mountains – 67 seats
Diary 6 – Pacific Coast – 73 seats

Today is the first diary, and we start our journey in the Northeast, where I have combined the New England and Mid-Atlantic regions into one block.

New England –

Maine –
ME-1 – Chellie Pingree-inc vs Isaac Misiuk
Maine’s 1st district is solidly democratic. Chellie Pingree has held this seat since 2008 and has never had a truly competitive race. Issac Misiuk is the republican nominee, but he faces a very uphill battle here.
Rating – Safe D

ME-2 – Open seat race
Maine’s 2nd district covers the less democratic north of the state, and with Mike Michaud running for governor, the seat is open. The democratic primary pits two state senators, Troy Jackson and Emily Cain against each other. On the republican side, Kevin Raye goes up against Bruce Poliquin, a former state treasurer. This seat is mildly democratic leaning, which allows me to start this off with a democratic edge regardless of who emerges in the primary round.
Rating – Lean D

New Hampshire –
NH-1 – Carol Shea-Porter-inc vs ???
New Hampshire’s 1st district has turned over in 3 of the past 4 election cycles. As such, Carol Shea-Porter should be on her guard. The man she beat in 2012, the man who beat her in 2010, Frank Guinta, is back for the rubber match. However, he’ll have to get past UNH dean Dan Innis in the republican primary first. This is an even PVI district, so naturally you’d think toss up and I definitely am thinking that way as well. The key to this race is to watch the national mood, New Hampshire is prone to wild swings in voter behavior in wave elections.
Rating – Toss Up/Tilt D

NH-2 – Annie Kuster-inc vs ???
The 2nd district, much like the first, has an incumbent who lost in 2010 but won in 2012. Annie Kuster’s biggest advantage over her democratic colleague is that the 2nd is more democratic than the 1st, so she should be harder to beat assuming she doesn’t make an unforced error. The republican primary is a battle between Marilinda Garcia and Gary Lambert. Whoever wins that will have an uphill battle against Kuster, mostly because of PVI but also money disadvantage. Kuster has a cool $1.37 million in the bank at present, whereas Garcia has just $59k. Lambert is better off at $260k, but that’s still a big deficit.
Rating – Lean D

Vermont –
VT-1 – Peter Welch vs nobody
Peter Welch is running unopposed, so he will return to Congress next session.
Rating – Safe D

Massachusetts –
MA-1 – Richard Neal-inc vs nobody
It appears that Richard Neal is running unopposed, so he’ll be returning to Congress.
Rating – Safe D

MA-2 – Jim McGovern-inc vs nobody
Like comrade Richard Neal, Jim McGovern is also unopposed. He’ll be returning to Congress.
Rating – Safe D

MA-3 – Niki Tsongas-inc vs nobody
Niki Tsongas is also unopposed. What is this a bad joke?
Rating – Safe D

MA-4 – Joseph Kennedy-inc vs nobody
Joseph Kennedy III, like the three before him, is running unopposed. He’ll also be returning to Congress.
Rating – Safe D

MA-5 – Katherine Clark-inc vs nobody
I guess the GOP doesn’t feel like contesting House seats in Massachusetts this cycle. Damn.
Rating – Safe D

MA-6 – John Tierney-inc vs Richard Tisei
Now finally we get to a race of some substance. John Tierney was picked by many to lose last cycle because he had a strong republican challenger in state senator Richard Tisei, and that he was also connected to some unsavory business involving his wife. But Tierney was able to hang on by a very slim margin. Tisei is back for another go, but after fumbling away his chance last cycle (possibly a fumble caused by a terrible ad he ran in the campaign’s final week), and with Tierney’s ethical issues moving further from public consciousness, I think he’s dependent on a good year nationally for the GOP. Right now I give Tierney the edge. There is a slight chance Tierney could get beaten in the primary round, as three democrats are running against him, most notably businessman Seth Moulton who will be running to Tierney’s right. Even if Moulton knocks Tierney off, I don’t see how that makes Tisei’s situation any easier.
Rating – Lean D

MA-7 – Michael Capuano-inc vs nobody
Another uncontested district? Yawn. Next.
Rating – Safe D

MA-8 – Stephen Lynch-inc vs nobody
Yet another uncontested district. This is like a sports league with ties and no playoffs. My job’s getting easier already.
Rating – Safe D

MA-9 – William Keating-inc vs ???
This seat covers Cape Cod and the southeastern part of Massachusetts. Keating won his race in 2012 by a solid 25% margin. Oddly enough, four GOPers are looking for the chance to face him. Former Romney campaign guy John Chapman and Plymouth County GOP chair Vincent Cogliano Jr are the most notable names in the GOP primary. That being said, either will need a hell of a campaign and a lot of help to have a chance against Keating.
Rating – Safe D

Rhode Island –
RI-1 – David Cicilline-inc vs ???
Democrat David Cicilline was mired in ethical trouble for much of last cycle, most of it related to the poor financial state of the city of Providence. Republican Brendan Doherty was seen as a strong challenger and many had this race a toss up, but Cicilline won by 12% on election night. This time around the GOP did not field a candidate, so Cicilline will be back in Congress.
Rating – Safe D

RI-2 – James Langevin-inc vs Rhue Reis
This is another hugely democratic district. While James Langevin does actually have to beat a GOP challenger in November unlike a lot of other New England democrats, that doesn’t mean he’s in any danger of losing.
Rating – Safe D

Connecticut –
CT-1 – John Larson-inc vs Matthew Corey
Connecticut’s first district is another democratic bastion. John Larson picked up nearly 70% of the vote last time around, and I don’t expect GOPer Matthew Corey to really push him much this cycle.
Rating – Safe D

CT-2 – Joe Courtney-inc vs nobody
Huh. Even Connecticut has districts with no republicans running.
Rating – Safe D

CT-3 – Rosa DeLauro-inc vs Steve Packard
Connecticut’s third district takes in most of the south central part of the state, and like districts 1 and 2, is very, very democratic. The incumbent is Rosa DeLauro, and she took nearly 75% of the vote last cycle. I cannot see any way in which she’d be in danger of losing this time.
Rating – Safe D

CT-4 – Jim Himes-inc vs ???
The fourth district is one of the wealthiest in the nation, taking in the southwest part of the state. Democrat Jim Himes took over this seat in 2008, giving team blue a sweep of all New England seats. The GOP has several interesting names in the primary here, including state representative John Shaban and former state senator and 2010 candidate Dan Debicella. It’s hard to see Himes losing here, but the GOP has some solid candidates just in case 2014 turns into a wave against democrats. The district is ancestrally republican as well but I feel that is starting to wear off.
Rating – Likely D

CT-5 – Elizabeth Esty-inc vs ???
This district in the northwest part of the state is the most republican in Connecticut, but still has a democratic PVI despite being somewhat ancestrally republican. Democrat Elizabeth Esty had a tough battle in 2012 against republican Andrew Roraback, defeating him by 3 points. Roraback declined a rematch, and as a result, the man he beat in the 2012 primary, Mark Greenberg, is the likely GOP nominee. Esty could definitely be vulnerable if there is a wave against democrats, but she’s more of a moderate than a liberal, so Greenberg may find it hard to campaign against her otherwise.
Rating – Lean D

Mid-Atlantic –

New York –
NY-1 – Tim Bishop-inc vs ???
Moving into New York now, we start on Long Island, where incumbent Tim Bishop has been somewhat embattled. He survived the 2010 wave by less than 1%, then won again by 5% last year. Naturally, the GOP is going hard after him again. 2012 primary candidate George Demos and state senator Lee Zeldin are the men going at it for the republican nomination. Whoever emerges will be up against an incumbent who is no stranger to tough campaigns. Bishop is doing well on the fundraising front with $722k in the bank, but Demos is at 1.22 million and Zeldin is at $411k as of April 1, so this will be a fair fight financially. The district is a swingy one to be sure. For now I see Bishop returning to Congress in a close one, just like the last 2 cycles.
Rating – Toss Up/Tilt D

NY-2 – Patricia Maher vs Peter King-inc
So far, we have 22 democrats in the House, and 0 republicans. That changes here. Peter King is one of the most popular republican incumbents in the whole nation. That explains how he won this district by 15+ last cycle even though Obama easily carried it. Patricia Maher is the democratic candidate, and she’s definitely a third tier selection. King shouldn’t have much trouble returning to Congress.
Rating – Safe R

NY-3 – Steve Israel-inc vs ???
Steve Israel is the head of the DCCC, which is odd in that you ordinarily don’t have somebody from a swing seat in a post like that. But like his adversary Peter King in neighboring NY-2, Steve Israel is a very popular incumbent. He won his race by 15% in 2012. His 2012 opponent Stephen Labate is back for a rematch, but he’ll have to get past Grant Lally in the GOP primary. Regarding, I don’t see either one beating Israel, who will have every national party resource behind him should the need arise.
Rating – Safe D

NY-4 – Open seat race
The fourth district is democratic-leaning but not overly so. Outgoing incumbent Carolyn McCarthy was a very strong political force but even she came within 7% of losing in 2010. The GOP is taking this open seat opportunity to have a chance at a pickup. 2012 candidate Francis Becker is back for another go, but he’ll have to defeat 3 other contenders in the primary, including Bruce Blakeman, who has the backing of some of New York’s minor parties. The democrats meanwhile got their top candidate in Nassau County district attorney Kathleen Rice. I feel like she will be very tough to beat in the general election.
Rating – Likely D

NY-5 – Gregory Meeks-inc vs nobody
Gregory Meeks has a primary challenger, but no republican opposition, so this seat will stay blue.
Rating – Safe D

NY-6 – Grace Meng-inc vs nobody
Grace Meng doesn’t have any opposition period, so she will return to Congress.
Rating – Safe D

NY-7 – Nydia Velazquez-inc vs Jose Luis Fernandez
This heavily Hispanic district is very solidly democratic. Longtime incumbent Nydia Velaz quez won’t have any trouble with re-election.
Rating – Safe D

NY-8 – Hakeem Jeffries-inc vs ???
The GOP isn’t putting up any opposition in the 8th, so Jeffries only has to deal with minor party opposition. He will be returning to Congress.
Rating – Safe D

NY-9 – Yvette Clark-inc vs ???
Just like the 8th district, the 9th doesn’t feature any GOP opposition, just minor parties. Yvette Clark will be going back to Congress.
Rating – Safe D

NY-10 – Jerrold Nadler-inc vs ???
As with the 8th and 9th districts, Jerrold Nadler won’t be facing a republican in November, only minor party candidates. He’ll be returning to his seat after November.
Rating – Safe D

NY-11 – Domenic Recchia vs Michael Grimm-inc
Now here’s a race that really is crazy. This district covers all of Staten Island and a small bit of Brooklyn. Michael Grimm is the republican incumbent, and he’s never been comfortable in his chair due to a swarm of ethical issues since the beginning of his tenure. He defeated his democratic opponent by 5% even though Obama won the district in 2012, which was a strong performance. Nevertheless, democrats are going hard after him, and the likely democratic candidate is Brooklyn City Councilman Domenic Recchia. He will likely be better funded and more organized than 2012 dem candidate Mark Murphy was. The optics looked decent for Grimm up until late April, when he was indicted and then taken into custody over ethically tainted business dealings. I now have to conclude that this seat, whether or not Grimm does stand for re-election or is replaced with another republican, will go blue in November.
Rating – Lean D (1st Dem pickup, D+1 overall)

NY-12 – Carolyn Maloney-inc vs Nick DiIorio
Carolyn Maloney got over 70% in her last contest in this district, which includes parts of Queens and Manhattan. Republican Nick DiIorio is running against her, but will get pounded.
Rating – Safe D

NY-13 – Charles Rangel-inc vs ???
Beleaguered democrat Charles Rangel has had the stench of ethical trouble around him for what seems like forever. There are three democrats running in the primary trying to take him out, the most noteworthy candidate being state senator Adriano Espaillat. The republicans aren’t putting up a candidate in this hugely blue district, so whoever emerges from the Dem primary will win the seat.
Rating – Safe D

NY-14 – Joseph Crowley-inc vs ???
Joseph Crowley, like many other NYC area dems, doesn’t have any republican opposition for the general election, just minor party stuff to deal with. He’ll be back in the next session.
Rating – Safe D

NY-15 – Jose Serrano-inc vs ???
Heading into the Bronx now, we stumble upon the most democratic district in the nation by PVI. Jose Serrano is only facing minor party opposition, so he is a shoo-in for re-election.
Rating – Safe D

NY-16 – Eliot Engel-inc vs ???
The last of the NYC-area districts, Engel is safe here. He’s only facing minor party opposition.
Rating – Safe D

NY-17 – Nita Lowey-inc vs ???
This district in Westchester County is pretty solidly democratic, going for Obama by 15 points in 2012. Nita Lowey won by 27 points in 2012, and the republican opposition isn’t great. 2012 primary candidate Francis Morganthaler is up against Some Dude Chris Day in the GOP primary. I can’t see either one making this one competitive.
Rating – Safe D

NY-18 – Sean Maloney-inc vs ???
This district in the lower Hudson valley gave us one of the shocks of Election Night 2012 when Sean Maloney upset Nan Hayworth in this marginally republican seat. (It has an R+ PVI even though Obama carried it narrowly). Hayworth is running to get her seat back, which ensures that this will be a fight, assuming Hayworth beats Andre Barnett in the GOP primary. In terms of fundraising, Maloney has been superb, and has $1.46 million in the bank right now. Undeterred, Hayworth clocks in with $663k. This is going to be a real battle. Right now I say Maloney holds the seat, but this is a toughie.
Rating – Toss Up/Tilt D

NY-19 – Sean Eldridge vs Christopher Gibson-inc
This seat in the central Hudson valley region is home to one of the few republicans sitting in a seat with a democratic PVI. Chris Gibson won this seat in the wave of 2010, and held it by 5% in 2012 over democrat Julian Schriebman. But the thing I always say is, if you win with a plurality, you’re not safe. Democrat Sean Eldridge is going after Gibson, and is uncontested in the Dem primary. He’s a self-funder and has plenty of cash, but detractors would point to his lack of experience and touch with average voters. Regardless, any time you are a democrat running against a republican in a D+ district and you’re sitting with more cash on hand than your opponent ($1.58 million to 1.23 million), you’re in good shape. Gibson won’t be the easiest of incumbents to knock off, but I think Eldridge is up for the challenge.
Rating – Toss Up/Tilt D (2nd Dem pickup, D+2 overall)

NY-20 – Paul Tonko-inc vs Jim Fischer
The Albany-based 20th went for Obama by 20 points, and Paul Tonko has been an entrenched incumbent for some time now. Republican Jim Fischer is going after Tonko, but he’s going to have to run a monster of a race and get some breaks in order to make it competitive.
Rating – Safe D

NY-21 – Open seat race
Finally we get to an open seat! This seat went surprisingly open when Bill Owens decided to hang it up. That set off what appears to be a wild developing race. In terms of PVI the 21st is almost an instant replay of the 19th, going for Obama by 6 points. Despite that, the district is very republican at the local level and Dems don’t have a great bench here. Filmmaker Aaron Woolf is the standard bearer. On the republican side, 2012 candidate Matt Doheny is back for another go, but he’ll have to get past businesswoman Elise Stefanik in the primary first. Doheny has name recognition but also loser stench from his previous defeats. Doheny has $516k in the bank to Stefanik’s $351k…Woolf has $403k. Everything about this contest screams toss up and I tend to agree. Right now I see Stefanik as the more dangerous candidate, if she wins the GOP primary she probably wins in November. Doheny would be more easily beaten, but Woolf will have to prove himself either way. I’m hedging to see who wins the GOP primary, but right now I say they pick it up.
Rating – Toss Up/Tilt R (1st GOP pickup, D+1 overall)

NY-22 – nobody vs Richard Hanna-inc
Somebody please explain to me how, in a district that Obama came within half a percentage point of carrying, that Team Blue failed to put up a single candidate?? FAIL.
Rating – Safe R

NY-23 – Martha Robertson vs Tom Reed-inc
If NY-18 was the shocker win of the night in 2012, it was only because this district fell short. Tom Reed, the republican incumbent, was considered safe by most observers, but was only able to beat democrat Nate Shinagawa by 3%. Now democrats sense an opening, and Tompkins County Legislative Chair Martha Robertson is ready to take Reed on. Robertson has a good profile and is fundraising very well, sitting with $814k in the bank, just behind Reed’s $1.07 million. The district leans slightly republican, as Mitt Romney carried it by 1%. What we have to ask ourselves is do we consider Reed to be a weak incumbent based on his small winning margin in 2012, or was that an aberration. I used to think it was the latter, but maybe not. Either way, Robertson is very capable, and this race will be one to watch.
Rating – Toss Up/Tilt R

NY-24 – Dan Maffei-inc vs John Katko
The Syracuse-based 24th saw a major upset in 2010 when Ann Marie Buerkle knocked off incumbent Dan Maffei. Maffei went to reclaim his seat and did so in 2012 by 5%, the winning margin looking closer than it really was because of a green party candidate getting 8%. Obama won here by 16%, so this isn’t exactly fertile territory for the GOP. Some Dude John Katko will try to replicate Buerkle’s success in 2010, but even if you believe Maffei isn’t a particularly strong incumbent, it’d be a stretch to call this a pickup opportunity.
Rating – Likely D

NY-25 – Louise Slaughter-inc vs Mark Assini
The Rochester-based 25th went for Obama by 19 points, and Louise Slaughter held off Republican Maggie Brooks by 12 last time around. Mark Assini is the republican challenger. He’s got a lot of work to do to make it to Capitol Hill.
Rating – Safe D

NY-26 – Brian Higgins-inc vs Kathy Weppner
Higgins is a longtime incumbent, and this district centered on Buffalo & Niagara Falls is very solidly democratic. I’m sure Higgins wishes he could’ve given some of those democratic voters to fallen democrat Kathy Hochul, who lost narrowly in 2012 in the neighboring 27th because the court drawn map turned the 27th into a GOP vote sink. Kathy Weppner is the GOP candidate, but I don’t see her having much of a shot against Higgins.
Rating – Safe D

NY-27 – Jim O’Donnell vs Chris Collins-inc
Collins sits in the most GOP district in New York, and he needed every last GOP voter he could find to defeat Kathy Hochul in 2012. Jim O’Donnell is running for the democrats, but if a strong incumbent like Hochul couldn’t win here, I’m not sure how an underfunded challenger can.
Rating – Safe R

New Jersey –
NJ-1 – Open seat race
Heading into the Garden state, the 1st is centered on Camden and the Philly burbs. It’s pretty solidly blue, so the three men in the democratic primary are running for what essentially means victory in November. State senator Donald Norcross is the likely standard bearer, though Frank Minor and Frank Broomell will try to knock him off. On the republican side, Lee Lucas, Garry Cobb, and Claire Gustafson are running for nomination.
Rating – Safe D

NJ-2 - ??? vs Frank LoBiondo-inc
The 2nd district covers much of south Jersey. Frank LoBiondo is one of the few republicans nationally sitting in a D+ district in terms of PVI, but he is a very strong incumbent. He won with 58% of the vote in 2012 while Barack Obama beat Mitt Romney by a 53-45 count. But the thing is, he’s never really had a competitive race within the last decade. That’s about to change. Lawyer Bill Hughes Jr, son of former representative Bill Hughes, is in the race. He’ll have to beat Dave Cole in the democratic primary but that should be a formality. Hughes has been a fairly strong fundraiser, and has 328k in the bank, but that pales to LoBiondo’s 1.27 million. At this point I have to conclude that LoBiondo has the edge, but this will be a very interesting campaign to watch given LoBiondo’s rustiness.
Rating – Lean R

NJ-3 – Open seat race
New Jersey’s 3rd district is one of the most evenly divided in the country, going for Obama by 5% in 2012. Incumbent Jon Runyan shocked everybody by not running for re-election, setting off a big open seat contest. The republican primary pits former Bogota mayor Steve Lonegan against businessman and philanthropist Tom McArthur. For the democrats, businessman Howard Kleinhandler, former Lt Gov candidate Bruce Todd, and American Cancer Society executive Aimee Belgard are in the mix. Of all the candidates, Belgard is doing the best in fundraising, with 326k in the bank, Lonegan is next with 172k. (McArthur actually has 1.9 million in the bank but all of that was self-funded). I don’t think I can call this anything but toss up at this point, and doggone it, I’m saying the democrats pick it up, particularly if Belgard is the one to emerge from the primary.
Rating – Toss Up/Tilt D (3rd Dem pickup, D+2 overall)

NJ-4 – Ruben Scolavino vs Chris Smith-inc
This is a district that oddly enough, was competitive about 10-15 years ago as I believe Al Gore carried it in 2000. Times have changed though, and Barack Obama lost here by 10 points to Mitt Romney. Chris Smith is the republican incumbent and he seems pretty solidly entrenched. Ruben Scolavino will try his hand at defeating him, but good luck.
Rating – Safe R

NJ-5 - ??? vs Scott Garrett-inc
Scott Garrett is one of the more odious House republicans from the northeast, and given that he sits in a seat that went marginally for Romney (51-48), perhaps democrats see this as a sleeper opportunity for a pickup. Two democrats, Diane Sare and Roy Cho, are battling it out for the right to face Garrett. Cho, to his credit is fundraising very well, having a solid 332k in the bank as of April 1. Garrett has a monstrous 2.9 million warchest to sit on however. Given the PVI and given that the democratic opposition looks at least somewhat credible, this could be one to keep an eye on.
Rating – Likely R

NJ-6 – Frank Pallone-inc vs Anthony Wilkinson
The 6th district is a very democratic district at 61% Obama. Frank Pallone actually had a bit of a scare here in the wave of 2010, but is otherwise very entrenched. The republican candidate is Some Dude Anthony Wilkinson. I don’t see him putting up much of a fight.
Rating – Safe D

NJ-7 – Janice Kovach vs Leonard Lance-inc
The 7th district became more republican in redistricting last cycle, going to a district that Mitt Romney won 52-46. Leonard Lance has a reputation for being one of the more moderate republicans in the House. Whether or not that’s deserved is up for debate, but we’ll discuss in another time and place. The democratic candidate here is Janice Kovach, who happens to be the mayor of Clinton. She seems like she has a good political profile, but her fundraising has been awful at just 18k in the bank. Unless that improves drastically I can’t see Lance being threatened very much.
Rating – Safe R

NJ-8 – Albio Sires-inc vs Anthony Tiscornia
Moving into northeast Jersey now, the 8th is hugely democratic. Anthony Tiscornia is running for the republicans here but Sires will crush him in November.
Rating – Safe D

NJ-9 – Bill Pascrell-inc vs Dierdre Paul
Another solidly democratic district, Bill Pascrell should have no trouble holding his seat against Some Dudette Dierdre Paul.
Rating – Safe D

NJ-10 – Donald Payne-inc vs Yolanda Dentley
This is one of the most democratic districts in the country. The only shock here is that the republicans actually have a candidate. Safe.
Rating – Safe D

NJ-11 - ??? vs Rodney Frelinghuysen-inc
The 11th district is a pinkish-red seat that Mitt Romney won by a 52-46 count in 2012. Rodney Frelinghuysen is the longtime incumbent, and he should be fine to win another term. 3 democrats, Anne Brogowski, Brian Murphy, and Mark Dunec are all battling for the chance to face Frelinghuysen in November. Dunec has actually raised 109k so far, but he’ll need to do better to threaten the incumbent’s hold on this seat.
Rating – Safe R

NJ-12 – Open seat race
Rush holt, the congressman perhaps best known for beating IBM Watson at Jeopardy, is retiring, so we have an open seat in this solidly blue district. Four democrats, Bonnie Coleman, Linda Greenstein, Andrew Zwicker, and 2012 NJ-7 candidate Upendra Chivukula are all running for nomination. The republican candidate is Alieta Eck. Eck will have a very uphill race to deal with no matter who emerges from the Dem primary.
Rating – Safe D

Pennsylvania –
PA-1 – Robert Brady-inc vs Megan Rath
Moving into Pennsylvania now, we start in the Philadelphia-based 1st district. At 83% Obama, there’s no way Robert Brady is losing this seat.
Rating – Safe D

PA-2 – Chaka Fattah-inc vs Armond James
The 2nd district is also in Philly, and its 90% Obama. The biggest surprise here is that the GOP is actually fielding a candidate. Godspeed Armond James, maybe you’ll get north of 10% against Fattah!
Rating – Safe D

PA-3 - ??? vs Mike Kelly-inc
The third district snakes from Erie down toward Pittsburgh. Mike Kelly won this seat in the wave of 2010, which republicans then made redder in the redistricting. Mitt Romney won here 55-43, so it’s hard to see democrats winning this outside of a massive blue wave year. Democrats Dan LaVallee and Mel Marin are going at it in the primary to see who will get to take on Kelly. Neither recruit is top tier, so I don’t see this being much of a contest.
Rating – Safe R

PA-4 – Linda Thompson vs Scott Perry-inc
The fourth is one of the most republican districts in Pennsylvania, as Barack Obama won just 41% here. Democrat Linda Thompson is running against incumbent Scott Perry, but her task is immense.
Rating – Safe R
PA-5 - ??? vs Glenn Thompson-inc
The fifth district takes in much of the north central portion of Pennsylvania. It’s a reliably republican area, so incumbent Glenn Thompson shouldn’t have too much to worry about. Two democrats are running in the primary and they both have interesting profiles. Thomas Tarantella is a decorated army veteran who served for 22 years, and Kerith Taylor is president of the Brookville school board. I don’t know that either can make much of a dent in such a red district, but these are the types of candidates I wish we had running in other nearby districts, like, I dunno, NY-22.
Rating – Safe R

PA-6 – Manan Trivedi vs Ryan Costello-inc
We move into suburban Philadelphia now, which used to be solidly republican years ago but has trended democratic within the past 2 decades. It’s still republican at the congressional level due to gerrymandering. Barack Obama won this district in 2008, but lost to Romney by 2.5% in 2012. The democratic candidate is Manan Trivedi, a physician who has run twice before but lost. The republican incumbent, Ryan Costello, is a freshman who only has 305k in the bank, so this could be a seat of opportunity. For now though I’m giving him the edge.
Rating – Lean R

PA-7 – Mary Balchunis vs Patrick Meehan-inc
This is Pennsylvania honey badger Joe Sestak’s old seat, though looking at a map I’m not sure he’d recognize it because it’s ugly as sin. Mitt Romney won here by a 50-48 count, so it’s definitely competitive in most years. Unfortunately, this is a seat where democrats pretty much struck out in recruiting. Some Dudette Mary Balchunis is the democratic candidate, and she’s going up against a fairly popular incumbent in Patrick Meehan. The republican brand in Pennsylvania is seriously damaged at the moment, but unless Balchunis can kick her fundraising and campaign into high gear, I’m skeptical that this one will change hands.
Rating – Likely R

PA-8 - ??? vs Mike Fitzpatrick-inc
This might be the hottest race in Pennsylvania this fall. Republican Mike Fitzpatrick has been a fairly solid incumbent thus far, collecting 56% of the vote in 2012. The presidential vote was decided by a few hundred votes, with Romney beating Obama 49.4 to 49.3. The democrats are trying hard to oust Fitzpatrick, and two fairly strong candidates, Kevin Strouse and Shaughnessy Naughton, are looking to earn the right to face him in November. Strouse is a former army ranger and CIA operative, while Naughton is a businesswoman and scientist. Thus far Strouse has done better than Naughton in the fundraising game, leading 564k to 208k, while Fitzpatrick has a crazy 1.47 million in the bank. This is a contest that will likely be interesting regardless of who wins the Dem primary, but Fitzpatrick has the edge for now.
Rating – Lean R

PA-9 – Alanna Hartzok vs Bill Shuster-inc
This district in the Appalachians is the most red in all of PA, so Bill Shuster shouldn’t have much trouble winning a general election. I say general because he’s got a tough primary opponent to deal with first, that being former coast guard captain and businessman Art Halvorson. Alanna Hartzok is the democratic candidate, but unless she’s the next Jim Matheson or John Barrow, I can’t see her doing much here even if Halvorson were to knock off Shuster in the republican primary.
Rating – Safe R

PA-10 – Scott Brion vs Tom Marino-inc
This district is 60% Romney, so I can’t see Marino having much trouble winning. I wish godspeed to democrat Scott Brion, who will try his luck anyway.
Rating – Safe R

PA-11 – Andy Ostrowski vs Lou Barletta-inc
Lou Barletta has a reputation of being a weak incumbent, fair or not. But at R+6, this is a district about as far out politically that democrats can reasonably contest. Civil rights lawyer Andy Ostrowski is running against Barletta, but I’m not seeing anything about him that suggests that Barletta is going to be fearful of losing.
Rating – Safe R

PA-12 - ??? vs Keith Rothfus-inc
One of the negative surprises of the night for democrats in 2012 came in this district in SW PA, as Mark Critz was defeated by Keith Rothfus. To be fair, this is a seat that has been zooming to the right for some time now. At just 41% Obama, its not likely to go blue again anytime soon. Nevertheless, psychologist Erin McClelland and John Hugya, Jack Murtha’s former chief of staff, will battle it out in the primary for the right to take on Rothfus in November. I don’t see this one ending well.
Rating – Safe R

PA-13 – Open seat race
Allyson Schwartz’s decision to run for governor caused this seat to be open, and it has set off one of the craziest Dem primaries of this election cycle. Four democrats, state representative Brendan Boyle, state senator Daylin Leach, anesthesiologist & health care activist Valerie Arkoosh, and former representative Marjorie Margolies are all hoping to get the checkmark by their name on primary night. The republican primary is between Some Dudes Carson Adcock and Beverly Plosa-Bowser. With apologies to a certain king of the koopas, I don’t see the republicans winning here, regardless of who emerges from the primary round.
Rating – Safe D

PA-14 – Mike Doyle vs nobody
Mike Doyle’s Pittsburgh area seat is uncontested, so he’ll be heading back to Congress.
Rating – Safe D

PA-15 – nobody vs Charlie Dent-inc
Are you freaking kidding me? No democrat filed to face Charlie Dent in this district that Obama lost by just 3%?? I hope they’re all waiting for Dent to step aside or something because of his strength, because he is a very popular incumbent. Still, you can’t leave R+3 districts uncontested if you want the majority.
Rating – Safe R

PA-16 - ??? vs Joe Pitts-inc
This York-Lancaster based seat is one that is moving pretty heavily toward democrats, or at least was prior to the 2010 wave and may have stagnated since then. At R+5, its at least in the ballpark of what is competitive, and republican Joe Pitts hasn’t had a competitive general election in a while. Former state representative Tom Houghton is the likely democratic candidate. His profile seems pretty strong, but I don’t have any fundraising data on him, which likely means he’s struggling. This one has some shock potential, but only if Pitts does a poor job on the campaign trail and Houghton does great.
Rating – Likely R

PA-17 – Matt Cartwright-inc vs ???
The crazy thing about this NE PA gerrymander is that it was intended to be a democratic vote sink, but in reality the PVI is only about D+4. The PA GOP could have tried to go 14-4 instead of 13-5 and busted this district up but it would’ve made a few of their other incumbents vulnerable. Democrat Matt Cartwright knocked off longtime representative Tim Holden in the primary and then won the general election with 60% of the vote. Three republicans, Matt Connolly, Matt Dietz, and David Moylan, are running for the right to face Cartwright, but all three are pretty weak honestly.
Rating – Safe D

PA-18 – nobody vs Tim Murphy
This solidly red district in SW PA is going uncontested, so Tim Murphy will return to Congress.
Rating – Safe R

Delaware –
DE-1 – John Carney-inc vs nobody
Does anybody remember when GOP representative Mike Castle held this seat? The GOP isn’t even putting up a candidate this year. I love witches.
Rating – Safe D

Maryland –
MD-1 – ??? vs Andy Harris-inc
Moving into the crab state now, and we start on the Eastern Shore. Republican Andy Harris is a whackjob, and he’s the only republican representative from this state. At 60% Romney, he’s safe. Oddly enough, 2012 candidate John LaFerla is running again, and he’ll have to get past Bill Tilghman in the democratic primary to get to the general. Fundraising wise both candidates are around 144k, which is better than what you normally see in a dark red district for dems. Not sure why all the action in the Dem primary, because Harris will cruise in November.
Rating – Safe R

MD-2 – Dutch Ruppersburger-inc vs David Banach
Obama carried this district by 28 points, so I can’t see Ruppersburger having much difficulty. Some Dude David Banach is running for the republicans, but he’s not winning.
Rating – Safe D

MD-3 – John Sarbanes-inc vs ???
The third district is slightly less democratic at 61% Obama, but its still bright blue if not dark blue. Three republicans, Thomas Harris, Michael Jackson (egads), and Charles Long are running for the right to face Sarbanes in November. None of the three are fundraising worth a lick though, so this has the makings of an easy re-election.
Rating – Safe D

MD-4 – Donna Edwards-inc vs ???
At 78% Obama, this is the most democratic district in Maryland. I can’t seem to figure out why there are 4, yes 4 republicans battling for the right to take on Donna Edwards. Their reward for winning the primary will be something like what Jafar had for Aladdin coming out of the Cave of Wonders with the lamp.
Rating – Safe D

MD-5 – Steny Hoyer-inc vs ???
What, three republicans battling for the right to take on Steny Hoyer? What’s with Maryland republicans and clown car primaries in solidly blue districts? Weird.
Rating – Safe D

MD-6 – John Delaney-inc vs ???
The 6th district is the only real “swing” district in Maryland, but I put that in quotation marks since Obama won here by 13 points, making it D+5 or thereabout. 2012 republican senate candidate Dan Bongino is running here, as is Some Dude Harold Painter. Bongino has almost no money in the bank though, so I don’t see a very competitive campaign happening here.
Rating – Safe D

MD-7 – Elijah Cummings-inc vs ???
This is yet another solidly blue district, so Cummings will have no trouble winning re-election.
Rating – Safe D

MD-8 – Chris Van Hollen-inc vs Dave Wallace
At least there’s only 1 republican foolish enough to take on Chris Van Hollen in this, the last district in the northeast region.
Rating – Safe D

Northeast Region Current Totals:
Safe D – 50 seats
Likely D – 3 seats
Lean D – 5 seats
Toss Up/Tilt D – 5 seats
Toss Up/Tilt R – 2 seats
Lean R – 3 seats
Likely R – 3 seats
Safe R – 16 seats
Total DEM Seats – 63 seats
Total GOP Seats – 24 seats

Poll

56 votes Show Results

How many seats will Democrats win in the Northeast Region?

56 votes Vote Now!

How many seats will Democrats win in the Northeast Region?

Less than 50

4 votes

50-55

1 vote

56-60

8 votes

61-65

35 votes

66-70

7 votes

More than 70

1 vote

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