StephenCLE’s election ratings – June 9, 2020
Hello everybody and welcome to StephenCLE’s election ratings. With today being 21 weeks prior to election day, I figure now is as good a time as any to unveil my preliminary Presidential, Senate, and House ratings for the 2020 election cycle.
Historically speaking, my ratings typically end up slightly optimistic on election day, especially 2016 which was a big flaming miss. 2018 went much better for the most part, if slightly optimistic. I projected +52 in the House (actual was +41), 0 in the Senate (actual was -2, missed IN and FL), and +10 in Governors (actual was +7, missed IA, OH, and FL). That being said I did have the top predictions on DKE in the 2012 cycle, and let me tell you, the Babka is as delicious as they say.
My ratings take many different factors into account. For the presidency, Trump national favorability and approval rating as well as state polling numbers were the dominant criteria. For the Senate, these criteria were utilized along with incumbency and fundraising numbers and candidate strength. In the House, candidate strength, incumbency, and fundraising numbers were all considered, but the generic congressional ballot was also a major criteria.
Without further ado, let’s get to it, starting with the electoral college!
2020 Presidential Ratings:
Safe D – 187 EVs (VT, MA, RI, CT, NY, NJ, DE, MD, IL, NM, CA, OR, WA, HI)
Likely D – 45 EVs (ME, NH, VA, MN, CO, NV)
Lean D – 57 EVs (PA, MI, WI, AZ)
Toss Up – 124 EVs (ME-2, NE-2, OH, NC, GA, FL, IA, TX)
Lean R – 3 EVs (MT)
Likely R – 51 EVs (SC, IN, MS, MO, KS, UT, AK)
Safe R – 71 EVs (WV, KY, TN, AL, AR, LA, OK, ND, SD, WY, ID)
The polling data is pretty undeniable right now. Biden is leading by anywhere from 8-12 points nationally at the moment, which means we are heading to an electoral count on the level of 2008 at a minimum, and maybe much higher. State level polling is showing Biden clearly ahead in all of the tipping point states like Wisconsin and Arizona, and pretty much a dead heat in other states ancillary to the democratic road to 270, like Texas, Iowa, and Ohio. If anything I feel I’m being a little cautious. I very nearly moved Michigan and Pennsylvania to Likely D and almost moved Florida and North Carolina to Lean D based on the current polling numbers. You’ll also notice that I moved a bunch of states out of Safe R without polling to really corroborate, except for KS and UT which did have fairly recent poll numbers. I figure if Biden is up by close to 10 nationally, that means states like Indiana, Missouri, and South Carolina are most likely within single digits, and any further erosion for Trump could put these states in play for Biden.
Onto the Senate, where the Democrats are looking to take control of the chamber, and as of right now, I think they are favored to do that. Much like the presidential map, the Senate map is looking very favorable for democrats now compared to several months ago. The democrats are either safe or likely to defend all of their own seats except for Doug Jones’s seat in Alabama, where I actually have him still leaning toward defeat due to how big Trump is likely to win Alabama by. Given that loss, democrats have to pick up 4 seats (assuming a Biden presidential win) to take control of the chamber. Dems are virtually a lock to pick up Colorado and Arizona, where Cory Gardner and Martha McSally are both losing by double digits. After that, the next 2 most likely pickups are Maine and North Carolina, where Susan Collins is losing to Sara Gideon and Thom Tillis is losing to Cal Cunningham. Those seats right there would get Dems to 50. From there, we have other good pickup targets in Georgia and Iowa, 2 states that are also toss up in the presidential race, and Montana, where popular governor Steve Bullock is expected to run well ahead of Joe Biden. Along with Alabama, I have Texas and Kansas both listed at Lean R as well. Texas is there mostly due to the fact that it is Toss Up in the presidential, and Kansas’s rating is a placeholder while we wait to see if unpopular Kris Kobach ends up as the republican nominee. If he is, Kansas will move to tossup surely.
2020 Senate Ratings:
D Not up for Election – 35 seats
Safe D – 9 seats – MA, RI, NJ, DE, VA, IL, MN, NM, OR
Likely D – 4 seats – NH, MI, CO, AZ
Lean D – 2 seats – ME, NC
Toss Up – 4 seats – GA-A, GA-B, IA, MT
Lean R – 3 seats – AL, KS, TX
Likely R – 3 seats – SC, KY, AK
Safe R – 10 seats – WV, TN, MS, LA, AR, OK, NE, SD, WY, ID
R Not up for Election – 30 seats
Now comes the real meat and potatoes, the House of Representatives. In 2018 the democrats gave Trump, the GOP, and gerrymandering the wag of the finger. At this point the question is not whether the GOP can make a run at reclaiming the chamber, but rather can democrats expand their majority. The generic ballot average according to 538 is a 49-40 Democratic advantage, which is just above the 8 point national House vote win democrats had 2 years ago. Based on that alone, you’d figure that the outcome in 2020 (as of now) would end up similar, give or take a few districts. As of now I have 194 districts safe for Dems, 19 as likely, and 16 as lean. If Dems lost every district currently in Toss Up they would still finish with 229 seats, or a net of -4. If they swept Toss Up, they would finish with 245 seats, or +12. In the scenario where Dems actually win by double digits nationally, they would probably start picking off seats currently sitting in Lean R, maybe even score a few upset wins in the Likely R column.
2020 House Ratings:
Safe D – 194 seats – (includes pickups in NC-2 and NC-6)
Likely D – 19 seats – (NH-1, NJ-5, NJ-11, NY-18, NY-19, PA-7, PA-17, VA-2, FL-13, FL-26, FL-27, MI-11, IL-6, IL-14, TX-23, NV-3, AZ-1, CA-39, CA-45)
Lean D – 16 seats – (ME-2, NJ-7, PA-8, VA-7, GA-6, MI-8, IA-1, IA-2, IA-3, KS-3, TX-7, TX-32, UT-4, NV-4, CA-21, CA-48)
Toss Up – 16 seats – NJ-2, NJ-3, NY-11, NY-22, SC-1, GA-7, IL-13, MN-7, NE-2, OK-5, TX-21, TX-22, TX-24, NM-2, AZ-6, CA-25)
Lean R – 17 seats – NY-2, NY-24, PA-1, PA-10, VA-5, FL-15, FL-16, OH-1, MI-3, IN-5, MN-1, MO-2, KS-2, TX-10, MT-1, WA-3, AK-1)
Likely R – 18 seats – NY-1, NY-21, NC-8, NC-9, FL-18, OH-10, OH-12, KY-6, MI-6, MN-8, IA-4, AR-2, TX-2, TX-25, TX-31, CO-3, CA-22, CA-50)
Safe R – 155 seats
For now I plan on updating these ratings on a monthly basis until we get to the early September update, and then this will be a weekly update up until election day. I’m happy to answer your thoughts, criticisms, etc in the comments. Mazel tov.